Predict It Now: Illinois Gov. 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not a fan of making these sorts of predictions this far out, but a Democrat seems like the most likely option.

Which is why Mike Frerichs is most likely to be elected, because Lisa Madigan wont run or Daley will decline, too.

MIKE Frerichs 49
Bruce Rauner 46
Other 5 percent

Dems never hit 50 in gov contests.

[Suburbia]

A Democrat. Bill Daley. He wins by winning 95-5 with the African American vote, as African Americans are disappointed in Bruce Rauner, who appealed to them in 2014.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obama is gonna work on his library. Term limits is what Rauner is holding out on, and its critical for his reelection chances, to elect a GOP legislature. But, Madigan isnt going to budge, and part of the reason for Kirk failings is due to his unwillingness to stand bye Rauner on this issue &risk own reelection. Because it affect state legislature.

[Illiniwek]

How about Barack Obama? He will be only 57 years old.

It would probably be the biggest piece of cake in the world for him after what he has had to go through the past 7 years. He would probably even enjoy it! But he is just going to want to play golf, go to Bulls games and watch his girls grow up.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Lisa Madigan if she wants it. I think she beats Rauner by about 7-10 points. If she doesn't run, however, Bill Daley or maybe Cheri Bustos might try running. Either would defeat Rauner.

Rumor has it that if she does not want it, Treasurer Frerichs may pursue it. Bustos is more likely to succeed Durbin as Senator. Daley may make a run for it, but he's a poor candidate.

Very good point. Seeing as you're from IL, I'm sure you are more knowledgeable about IL politics than I am. Would you say the Governor's seat would be easy for Madigan to win if she wanted it, would she be able to clear a primary? I would imagine she would be a very strong nominee and could beat Rauner.
I would also agree that Bustos will most likely wait for Durbin to retire and then run for senate instead.

She could likely clear a primary, perhaps with the exception of Bill Daley because he kind of does what he wants. Frerichs will not run if Madigan runs.

She would win in the general for sure, barring extreme circumstances. For whatever reasons, Illinois Pubs and many Dems dislike Mike Madigan but not his daughter, despite her essentially being a product of him (literally and figuratively). Those family members of mine that are Republicans dislike Mike strongly but vote for Lisa every time she is on the ballot.

That would change after some attack ads. Dems have got to have better people to run than Madigan. She is well-liked by Republicans in the state due to some good work she's done as AG (such as some major trust-busting), much as Secretary of State Jesse White is, but that'd change very quickly if she ran for governor. Republicans (and Madigan's primary opponents) would cry nepotism and corruption faster than you can say "Madigan", and in a state where we've had four recent governors go to prison (including Rod Blagojevich, who is still there), that'd go a long way, even if none of it were true.

Plus, she seems uninterested in the mudslinging that would accompany such a campaign. She would make a better fit for the Senate or a future Democratic president's cabinet.

If there is a Democratic president in 2018, I look for the election that year to be a bigger wave than 2010 or 2014, in which case Rauner could well survive this thing and may even be favored depending on the circumstances and who the Democrats nominate. He'll need to chart a path unlike what Scott Walker and Rick Snyder (and even Tom Corbett) did since he has Democratic supermajorities in both houses of the General Assembly against him. So far, he's really done all right.

One big thing to consider: 2018 is a big election in Illinois because of redistricting in 2020. A Rauner reelection would mean the end of the Madigan gerrymandering in the state legislative districts and the tumbling down of the entire working structure of the Illinois House and Senate Democrats as we know it. Rauner will no doubt run on this theme.

I can't even predict who'll end up winning that race, but I have to believe that (even though their leaders are an aging group and they underrepresented in every part of Illinois except the Chicago area) out of supermajorities in both houses of the Assembly and several statewide offices (and a sizeable majority in the US House delegation), Illinois Democrats ought to be able to find someone better than the daughter of the highly unpopular House Speaker, even if she is currently the state Attorney General.

[Kingpoleon]

The only candidate worse than Madigan might be Jesse Jackson, Jr., and that's because he has actually been imprisoned.

[Mister Mets]

My guess is Rauner.

Incumbents tend to get reelected. The midterm electorate favors Republicans.

Democrats have made some really poor choices in Illinois primaries.

My sense is that businessman politicians are savvy enough to make unpopular decisions long before the reelection campaign starts.

[BigSkyBob]

Prediction: the party that wins the White House in 2016 will lose Illinois in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Prediction: the party that wins the White House in 2016 will lose Illinois in 2018.

PAT QUINN got elected in 2010, and that was an R wave. Mike Frereichs will probably challenge Rauner. The Dems have a solid majority in state assembly to keep the budget from coming up for a vote, to hurt Rauner.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Well, looks like Rauner is going to win again, seeing as Quinn will be his opposition.

[Gass3268]

Well, looks like Rauner is going to win again, seeing as Quinn will be his opposition.

After four years of Rauner, even Quinn could beat him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I agree Quinn can beat him, Rauner hasnt passed budget and schools are about to strike again, for lack of funds.

[ElectionsGuy]

Well, looks like Rauner is going to win again, seeing as Quinn will be his opposition.

After four years of Rauner, even Quinn could beat him.

If Hillary is president, I wouldn't be so sure.

[muon2]

I agree Quinn can beat him, Rauner hasnt passed budget and schools are about to strike again, for lack of funds.

The school funds part of the budget was passed and signed by Rauner during the summer. Chicago Public Schools have a budget mess apart from the state. It's largely a problem started under Daley when the state under Quinn passed a kick-the-can-down-the-road fix in 2010. The can landed with interest in 2014 still under Quinn and the state has been unwilling to bail out CPS so far since then.

[Mr. Illini]

Well, looks like Rauner is going to win again, seeing as Quinn will be his opposition.

After four years of Rauner, even Quinn could beat him.

It's probably true, but I don't want to find out. Madigan or Frerichs must run.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Madigan isnt running. Mike Frerichs likely wont run if Quinn does. That leaves Vallas and Daley. And both do whatever  they want, it seems.

[Mr. Illini]

Madigan isnt running. Mike Frerichs likely wont run if Quinn does. That leaves Vallas and Daley. And both do whatever  they want, it seems.

I strongly disagree and am wondering why you think so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Maybe he will, I was just guessing since Quinn cleared the field last time, by getting Daley to dropout. But, either one wil be an improvement over Rauner.

[Mr. Illini]

Maybe he will, I was just guessing since Quinn cleared the field last time, by getting Daley to dropout. But, either one wil be an improvement over Rauner.

But Quinn was also going into it as the sitting governor, no matter how unpopular.

Now he would be going in as a loser who is coming back for seconds.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Prediction: the party that wins the White House in 2016 will lose Illinois in 2018.

PAT QUINN got elected in 2010, and that was an R wave. Mike Frereichs will probably challenge Rauner. The Dems have a solid majority in state assembly to keep the budget from coming up for a vote, to hurt Rauner.

I've already endorsed Frerichs for Gov, Quinn will be the underdog in the race

[MasterJedi]

I'm sure they'll vote for whichever Democrat they put up on a "we need to raise taxes" platform. Then they'll wonder how they still don't have enough money.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are likely to win IL, Pa, & ME anyways in 2018. MI, FL & OH can be won, too.

[Higgs]

It will be close, but I think Rauner holds on

[Coolface Sock #42069]

How about Barack Obama? He will be only 57 years old.

It would probably be the biggest piece of cake in the world for him after what he has had to go through the past 7 years. He would probably even enjoy it! But he is just going to want to play golf, go to Bulls games and watch his girls grow up.

He could implement his liberal agenda at the state level without Republican opposition.

And, boy, I'd be outta here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It will be close, but I think Rauner holds on

I doubt it, he hasnt passed s budget and his poll numbers aren't improving.  Speaker Madigan hand hasnt been forced,  laying blame on Gov. Its gonna get worst in Jan, when Chicago Schools shut down. Blame on Rauner will be worst.