Something strange is happening demographically-speaking

[Tender Branson]

... during the first half of 2015 (at least in some European countries).

Deaths are up by 4-11% in several countries.

In Italy, France and Germany they are up by 10% compared with the first half of 2014, in Austria by 8% and in Sweden by 4%.

Usually, birth and death statistics are not moving by more than 2-3% each year.

What could be the reason for this massive spike in deaths accross the continent ? It's not like it was really cold or something in the winter/spring months ...

[Ban my account ffs!]

... during the first half of 2015 (at least in some European countries).

Deaths are up by 4-11% in several countries.

In Italy, France and Germany they are up by 10% compared with the first half of 2014, in Austria by 8% and in Sweden by 4%.

Usually, birth and death statistics are not moving by more than 2-3% each year.

What could be the reason for this massive spike in deaths accross the continent ? It's not like it was really cold or something in the winter/spring months ...

That seems very high for one year.  One could explain Germany away by saying the spike in births during Hitler's early reign... but France had a low birth rate in the mid 30s.

Does it extend to any other countries?

[Tender Branson]

... during the first half of 2015 (at least in some European countries).

Deaths are up by 4-11% in several countries.

In Italy, France and Germany they are up by 10% compared with the first half of 2014, in Austria by 8% and in Sweden by 4%.

Usually, birth and death statistics are not moving by more than 2-3% each year.

What could be the reason for this massive spike in deaths accross the continent ? It's not like it was really cold or something in the winter/spring months ...

That seems very high for one year.  One could explain Germany away by saying the spike in births during Hitler's early reign... but France had a low birth rate in the mid 30s.

Does it extend to any other countries?

Yeah, I've just checked the Dutch and Czech statistics offices and they report a similar pattern:

In the Czech Republic, deaths are up 10% in the first half of 2015 and in Holland by 8%.

This is weird, because it involves many countries and there was no flu epidemic either this year.

Would be interesting to see if the same pattern is true in the US (which will release their semi-annual birth/death statistics later).

[Tender Branson]

Maybe it will be counterbalanced by the 2nd half of 2015 though, by having less deaths and it evens out over the year.

Demographic processes are sometimes funny ...

[Tender Branson]

Hungary has the same pattern:

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http://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xftp/gyor/nep/enep1508.html

[Ban my account ffs!]

You might've stumbled onto something.  This is very odd, indeed.

I obsess over demographic trends and only in times of war or major disease do deaths rise that much.  If you could see it month by month, one could check to see if the heat might have played a role... but wasn't France considerably less hot compared to normal?  The big test might be the UK which did not have a hot summer.

[Tender Branson]

The pattern seems to be slightly different (lower) in Scandinavia for some reason:

Finland: +1%
Sweden: +4%
Norway: +5%
Denmark: +6%

[Tender Branson]

It also coincides with reports that 40% of bee colonies in Europe (and not just there) were killed over the spring/summer of this year:

http://www.prwatch.org/news/2015/06/12849/bee-crisis-more-40-percent-honey-bee-colonies-lost

[Ban my account ffs!]

It has a pattern suggesting heat explains some of it.  I'd expect the increase then to be big in Poland and Slovakia as well since they had a very hot summer.

Scandinavia had a cool summer, especially further east.  Denmark and far northern Germany was on the dividing line.  

But even the heatwaves of 2003 didn't cause this big of a spike I don't think.

[Tender Branson]

England & Wales:

Jan.-Aug. 2015: 358.711 deaths (+9.3%)

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob2/monthly-figures-on-deaths-registered-by-area-of-usual-residence--england-and-wales/august-2015--provisional-/rft-monthly-deaths---august-2015--provisional-.xls

Jan.-Aug. 2014: 328.051 deaths

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob2/monthly-figures-on-deaths-registered-by-area-of-usual-residence--england-and-wales/august-2014--provisional-/rft-monthly-deaths-august-2014.xls

[Tender Branson]

It has a pattern suggesting heat explains some of it.  I'd expect the increase then to be big in Poland and Slovakia as well since they had a very hot summer.

Scandinavia had a cool summer, especially further east.  Denmark and far northern Germany was on the dividing line.  

But even the heatwaves of 2003 didn't cause this big of a spike I don't think.

I don't think heat can explain this, because most numbers are from Jan. to June and heatwaves are later in July and August.

Also, the biggest spikes are in the first quarter of 2015 and I remember it not being very cold - which usually leads to more deaths.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Now it's really up to cause of death.  And you'd think if there was a big spike in a certain cause, we'd have heard about it.

If it's just increased mortality then that indicates some kind of overall stress on the population.

[Tender Branson]

In Russia, it was only +1.5% in the first 8 months, which is similar to Finland.

Now I'm really interested in the US numbers ...

[Tender Branson]

There's also evidence of this pattern outside Europe:

South Korea

Jan.-July: +5%

http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english/news/1/1/index.board?bmode=download&bSeq=&aSeq=348921&ord=1

[Ban my account ffs!]

Looking at France and Hungary, it would appear that the seasonal rise in deaths was unusually small in 2013/14 and then unusually large in 2014/15.

This would relate to the annual rise in deaths that occurs beginning in October and peaking in January.  In France and Hungary, deaths remained high into February and March while in many other years deaths dropped off rapidly after January.

There has been a general rise in deaths over the past 10 years and 2014 was actually the odd one out on the trend.  It would make sense that 2015 would see a higher number of deaths from the same cause that didn't kill people in 2014.

[homelycooking]

Demographers never die - they just decrease.

[Adam Griffin]

Try looking at multiple countries well-removed (geographically, militarily, politically, etc) from WWII and see what you find.

South America would probably be a good start.

[tpfkaw]

The cause would be easier to guess if it were broken down by age cohort.

[jimrtex]

Looking at France and Hungary, it would appear that the seasonal rise in deaths was unusually small in 2013/14 and then unusually large in 2014/15.

This would relate to the annual rise in deaths that occurs beginning in October and peaking in January.  In France and Hungary, deaths remained high into February and March while in many other years deaths dropped off rapidly after January.

There has been a general rise in deaths over the past 10 years and 2014 was actually the odd one out on the trend.  It would make sense that 2015 would see a higher number of deaths from the same cause that didn't kill people in 2014.

Census Bureau international gateway

Looking at France for one-year age cohorts for 2010, 2015, 2020 there has been a huge increase in older persons due to the influx of those born after WWII, replacing those who weren't born during the war. The number of persons born in 1948 is about 55% greater than those born in 1943 (at the same age). The 48ers are now 67 and beginning to die at increasing rates.

There has also been a big increase in those born after WWI, compared to those not born in WWI, though those born after WWI would have borne some of the dying in WWII. At that age, large numbers die every year (getting close to 10%).

The median age for those over 65 has been declining in France due to the post-WWII generation entering the ranks. This will drive the death rate over 65's up, while continuing to increase the death rate for the whole population.

[Tender Branson]

Try looking at multiple countries well-removed (geographically, militarily, politically, etc) from WWII and see what you find.

South America would probably be a good start.

That's impossible, because South American countries do not have semi-annual or even monthly civil registration numbers on births, deaths, etc.

Only annual numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Canada:

First half of 2015: 138.611 deaths (+4.5%)
First half of 2014: 132.687 deaths

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a03?lang=eng&pattern=053-0001&p2=31

[danny]

Israel, first six months:

2014: 21762
2015: 22945 (+5.4%)

[Ban my account ffs!]

Looking at France and Hungary, it would appear that the seasonal rise in deaths was unusually small in 2013/14 and then unusually large in 2014/15.

This would relate to the annual rise in deaths that occurs beginning in October and peaking in January.  In France and Hungary, deaths remained high into February and March while in many other years deaths dropped off rapidly after January.

There has been a general rise in deaths over the past 10 years and 2014 was actually the odd one out on the trend.  It would make sense that 2015 would see a higher number of deaths from the same cause that didn't kill people in 2014.

Census Bureau international gateway

Looking at France for one-year age cohorts for 2010, 2015, 2020 there has been a huge increase in older persons due to the influx of those born after WWII, replacing those who weren't born during the war. The number of persons born in 1948 is about 55% greater than those born in 1943 (at the same age). The 48ers are now 67 and beginning to die at increasing rates.

There has also been a big increase in those born after WWI, compared to those not born in WWI, though those born after WWI would have borne some of the dying in WWII. At that age, large numbers die every year (getting close to 10%).

The median age for those over 65 has been declining in France due to the post-WWII generation entering the ranks. This will drive the death rate over 65's up, while continuing to increase the death rate for the whole population.

Yes im well aware of all that.  But this extends somewhat to South Korea as well.  And these are year over year. The sudden rise in births after wwii (but not in Germany) will only be apparent over several years.

[jimrtex]

Looking at France and Hungary, it would appear that the seasonal rise in deaths was unusually small in 2013/14 and then unusually large in 2014/15.

This would relate to the annual rise in deaths that occurs beginning in October and peaking in January.  In France and Hungary, deaths remained high into February and March while in many other years deaths dropped off rapidly after January.

There has been a general rise in deaths over the past 10 years and 2014 was actually the odd one out on the trend.  It would make sense that 2015 would see a higher number of deaths from the same cause that didn't kill people in 2014.

Census Bureau international gateway

Looking at France for one-year age cohorts for 2010, 2015, 2020 there has been a huge increase in older persons due to the influx of those born after WWII, replacing those who weren't born during the war. The number of persons born in 1948 is about 55% greater than those born in 1943 (at the same age). The 48ers are now 67 and beginning to die at increasing rates.

There has also been a big increase in those born after WWI, compared to those not born in WWI, though those born after WWI would have borne some of the dying in WWII. At that age, large numbers die every year (getting close to 10%).

The median age for those over 65 has been declining in France due to the post-WWII generation entering the ranks. This will drive the death rate over 65's up, while continuing to increase the death rate for the whole population.

Yes im well aware of all that.  But this extends somewhat to South Korea as well.  And these are year over year. The sudden rise in births after wwii (but not in Germany) will only be apparent over several years.

I thought you said that 2014 was anomalously low?

Between 2010 and 2010, the share of the Korean population over 60 has increased from 15.6% to 23.0%.

[Adam Griffin]

Try looking at multiple countries well-removed (geographically, militarily, politically, etc) from WWII and see what you find.

South America would probably be a good start.

That's impossible, because South American countries do not have semi-annual or even monthly civil registration numbers on births, deaths, etc.

Only annual numbers.

Does France break it down by departemente or keep track of overseas separately? I was going to say check French Guiana.