Something strange is happening demographically-speaking

[Tender Branson]

... during the first half of 2015 (at least in some European countries).

Deaths are up by 4-11% in several countries.

In Italy, France and Germany they are up by 10% compared with the first half of 2014, in Austria by 8% and in Sweden by 4%.

Usually, birth and death statistics are not moving by more than 2-3% each year.

What could be the reason for this massive spike in deaths accross the continent ? It's not like it was really cold or something in the winter/spring months ...

[Tender Branson]

... during the first half of 2015 (at least in some European countries).

Deaths are up by 4-11% in several countries.

In Italy, France and Germany they are up by 10% compared with the first half of 2014, in Austria by 8% and in Sweden by 4%.

Usually, birth and death statistics are not moving by more than 2-3% each year.

What could be the reason for this massive spike in deaths accross the continent ? It's not like it was really cold or something in the winter/spring months ...

That seems very high for one year.  One could explain Germany away by saying the spike in births during Hitler's early reign... but France had a low birth rate in the mid 30s.

Does it extend to any other countries?

Yeah, I've just checked the Dutch and Czech statistics offices and they report a similar pattern:

In the Czech Republic, deaths are up 10% in the first half of 2015 and in Holland by 8%.

This is weird, because it involves many countries and there was no flu epidemic either this year.

Would be interesting to see if the same pattern is true in the US (which will release their semi-annual birth/death statistics later).

[Tender Branson]

Maybe it will be counterbalanced by the 2nd half of 2015 though, by having less deaths and it evens out over the year.

Demographic processes are sometimes funny ...

[Tender Branson]

Hungary has the same pattern:

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http://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xftp/gyor/nep/enep1508.html

[Tender Branson]

The pattern seems to be slightly different (lower) in Scandinavia for some reason:

Finland: +1%
Sweden: +4%
Norway: +5%
Denmark: +6%

[Tender Branson]

It also coincides with reports that 40% of bee colonies in Europe (and not just there) were killed over the spring/summer of this year:

http://www.prwatch.org/news/2015/06/12849/bee-crisis-more-40-percent-honey-bee-colonies-lost

[Tender Branson]

England & Wales:

Jan.-Aug. 2015: 358.711 deaths (+9.3%)

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob2/monthly-figures-on-deaths-registered-by-area-of-usual-residence--england-and-wales/august-2015--provisional-/rft-monthly-deaths---august-2015--provisional-.xls

Jan.-Aug. 2014: 328.051 deaths

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vsob2/monthly-figures-on-deaths-registered-by-area-of-usual-residence--england-and-wales/august-2014--provisional-/rft-monthly-deaths-august-2014.xls

[Tender Branson]

It has a pattern suggesting heat explains some of it.  I'd expect the increase then to be big in Poland and Slovakia as well since they had a very hot summer.

Scandinavia had a cool summer, especially further east.  Denmark and far northern Germany was on the dividing line.  

But even the heatwaves of 2003 didn't cause this big of a spike I don't think.

I don't think heat can explain this, because most numbers are from Jan. to June and heatwaves are later in July and August.

Also, the biggest spikes are in the first quarter of 2015 and I remember it not being very cold - which usually leads to more deaths.

[Tender Branson]

In Russia, it was only +1.5% in the first 8 months, which is similar to Finland.

Now I'm really interested in the US numbers ...

[Tender Branson]

There's also evidence of this pattern outside Europe:

South Korea

Jan.-July: +5%

http://kostat.go.kr/portal/english/news/1/1/index.board?bmode=download&bSeq=&aSeq=348921&ord=1

[Tender Branson]

Try looking at multiple countries well-removed (geographically, militarily, politically, etc) from WWII and see what you find.

South America would probably be a good start.

That's impossible, because South American countries do not have semi-annual or even monthly civil registration numbers on births, deaths, etc.

Only annual numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Canada:

First half of 2015: 138.611 deaths (+4.5%)
First half of 2014: 132.687 deaths

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a03?lang=eng&pattern=053-0001&p2=31

[Tender Branson]

Now updated with US numbers:

Deaths were up by 5% in the 1st quarter of 2015 compared with Q1, 2014.

It slowed down to +2% in the 2nd quarter though, which is in line with other countries.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/vsrr/mortality-dashboard.htm

[Tender Branson]

New York State had an abnormally high increase in deaths between Jan.-June 2015:

1st half of 2015: 104.510 deaths

1st half of 2014:   75.763 deaths

That's an increase of 38% (!!!) - Even Germany had "only" an increase of 10%.

All other states had way more moderate increases of 1-10%, which is in line with the European data I posted above.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/provisional_tables/Provisional_Table02_2015Jun.pdf

[Tender Branson]

It seems the strong uptick in death rates around the world last year is correcting itself this year ...

Today, Statistics Austria released the vital statistics for the first half of 2016 and births increased by 3% compared with 2015 and deaths dropped by 8%:

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http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/110214.html