Something strange is happening demographically-speaking

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... during the first half of 2015 (at least in some European countries).

Deaths are up by 4-11% in several countries.

In Italy, France and Germany they are up by 10% compared with the first half of 2014, in Austria by 8% and in Sweden by 4%.

Usually, birth and death statistics are not moving by more than 2-3% each year.

What could be the reason for this massive spike in deaths accross the continent ? It's not like it was really cold or something in the winter/spring months ...

That seems very high for one year.  One could explain Germany away by saying the spike in births during Hitler's early reign... but France had a low birth rate in the mid 30s.

Does it extend to any other countries?

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You might've stumbled onto something.  This is very odd, indeed.

I obsess over demographic trends and only in times of war or major disease do deaths rise that much.  If you could see it month by month, one could check to see if the heat might have played a role... but wasn't France considerably less hot compared to normal?  The big test might be the UK which did not have a hot summer.

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It has a pattern suggesting heat explains some of it.  I'd expect the increase then to be big in Poland and Slovakia as well since they had a very hot summer.

Scandinavia had a cool summer, especially further east.  Denmark and far northern Germany was on the dividing line.  

But even the heatwaves of 2003 didn't cause this big of a spike I don't think.

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Now it's really up to cause of death.  And you'd think if there was a big spike in a certain cause, we'd have heard about it.

If it's just increased mortality then that indicates some kind of overall stress on the population.

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Looking at France and Hungary, it would appear that the seasonal rise in deaths was unusually small in 2013/14 and then unusually large in 2014/15.

This would relate to the annual rise in deaths that occurs beginning in October and peaking in January.  In France and Hungary, deaths remained high into February and March while in many other years deaths dropped off rapidly after January.

There has been a general rise in deaths over the past 10 years and 2014 was actually the odd one out on the trend.  It would make sense that 2015 would see a higher number of deaths from the same cause that didn't kill people in 2014.

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Looking at France and Hungary, it would appear that the seasonal rise in deaths was unusually small in 2013/14 and then unusually large in 2014/15.

This would relate to the annual rise in deaths that occurs beginning in October and peaking in January.  In France and Hungary, deaths remained high into February and March while in many other years deaths dropped off rapidly after January.

There has been a general rise in deaths over the past 10 years and 2014 was actually the odd one out on the trend.  It would make sense that 2015 would see a higher number of deaths from the same cause that didn't kill people in 2014.

Census Bureau international gateway

Looking at France for one-year age cohorts for 2010, 2015, 2020 there has been a huge increase in older persons due to the influx of those born after WWII, replacing those who weren't born during the war. The number of persons born in 1948 is about 55% greater than those born in 1943 (at the same age). The 48ers are now 67 and beginning to die at increasing rates.

There has also been a big increase in those born after WWI, compared to those not born in WWI, though those born after WWI would have borne some of the dying in WWII. At that age, large numbers die every year (getting close to 10%).

The median age for those over 65 has been declining in France due to the post-WWII generation entering the ranks. This will drive the death rate over 65's up, while continuing to increase the death rate for the whole population.

Yes im well aware of all that.  But this extends somewhat to South Korea as well.  And these are year over year. The sudden rise in births after wwii (but not in Germany) will only be apparent over several years.

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Must be those pesky refugees, eh?

On a serious note, perhaps it has something to do with babyboomers or their parents reaching dying age?

Or climate change?

Climate change most definitely not.  The deaths are spread out all over and the weather was not particularly anything. 

Climate change would only be the culprit if there was a direct, but steady rise in deaths due to specific, but long term changes like rising temperatures or rising or falling precipitation.

The baby boomer argument is also thrown out because not all of the countries we currently have data for had a baby boom during or immediately after WWII.  Germany's boom was in the 30s with a big drop in births during the war that reached its nadir in 1945/46 followed by a steady rise in births until 1963.  This was different than France which had very low birth rates during the 30s and 40s until 1946 when there was a big boom.

And the trend of increasing elderly people is apparent by the rise in the seasonal low of deaths that occurs in September which seems not to be affected by what caused this spike.  In france, September deaths have steadily increased for several years now as the oldest baby boomers reach 70.

The spike this year has to do with February and March being particularly deadly while January saw a numerical increase in line with 2010-2013.  Early 2014 was particularly NOT deadly.  It was the lowest since 2006 and 2007.

So we know this:  At least in France and Hungary... deaths were particularly high in February and March (France saw 23% more deaths in Feb 2015 compared to Feb 2014).  Otherwise deaths have been a couple percent higher than 2014 overall.

This would suggest whatever kills people in late winter was particularly weak in 2014 and particularly strong in 2015.

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The baby boomer argument is also thrown out because not all of the countries we currently have data for had a baby boom during or immediately after WWII.  Germany's boom was in the 30s with a big drop in births during the war that reached its nadir in 1945/46 followed by a steady rise in births until 1963.  This was different than France which had very low birth rates during the 30s and 40s until 1946 when there was a big boom.

You need to look at the older age groups.

There are more 79-year-olds than newborns in Germany. Between 2010 and 2015 there was a 31% increase in those 75-79, as the pre-WWII baby boom replaced those born during the deep depression. By 2020, this group will have dropped by 11% as those born during WWII enter that age. It won't reach the the same numbers until 2034 when those born in the late 1950s enter that group.

Meanwhile the number 80-84 will increase by 33% by 2020.

There was also a big differential between those born during WWI and those immediately after, though the overall effect is diminished as these boomers are now over 90. The number 90-94 increased by 58% between 2010 and 2015. The number 95-99 has increased 43% in two years from 2014 to 2016.

Like I said, I'm well aware of the age structure of European countries.  I'm a nerd.

But I haven't even looked at Germany's data.  I looked at France and Hungary.  France's birth rate declined throughout the 19th century and was already the lowest in the world by the turn of the 20th century with births generally declining each year and the population stagnating.

WWI was a huge hit to France and its aged population while younger Germany surged upward played a big role in how France did in the World Wars.

But my point is that France saw declining total births from 1900-1945.. falling from 917,000 in 1901 to 800,000 by 1911-13.  The post WWI "boom" was only 838,000 in 1920 but then births fell to 700,000 by about 1932/33 and further to 600,000 at the onset of the war.  They fell as low as 520,000 in 1941 before climbing during the rest of the war to 645,000 in 1945... but then the boom came and births jumped to 800,000+ and as high as 880,000 from 1946-1974.  Since 1975 they have generally been between 750,000-800,000 with a brief fall to as low as 710,000 in the early '90s.

So French mortality should be rising only very slowly for a few more years before the older baby boomers begin to push it up.  And yes I know how morbid this conversation sounds.

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You're not taking into account that those born in 1920-24 would have had higher death rates their whole lives compared to those born 1945-49.  Also you don't take into account that many more migrants to France were born 1945-49 compared to 1920-24.

Higher infant/child mortality and out-migration explain why Germany could have as many as 2 million births in the years from 1900-1914 without deaths ever rising above 1 million after WWI (except 1945/46 at 1.2 and 1 million respectively).  Though deaths will rise above 1 million in Germany in the coming years.

The significant excess either left Germany or died young.

And again... even with the complex mechanics of momentum and vital statistics, it doesn't explain the pattern that has led to these unusually high increase in deaths.

In France, at least, most of the increase occurred in January-March compared to 2014.  Especially in February and March.  As I cited before... a 23% increase in deaths in Feb 2015 compared to Feb 2014.  Neither were leap years so the month length is the same.

My hypothesis is that it had to do with flu or other seasonal disease and perhaps the fact that seasonal causes of death are stronger than the simple annual cycle (as in.. it's more likely that if you survive winter... you'll survive until the next winter, rather than croak in summer.. all else being equal)

So 2015 was merely a case of a dearth of deaths in 2014 being at least partially corrected in 2015.

This hypothesis would mean that the oldest elderly or vulnerable would have seen the highest increase year over year in mid-late winter.  But I can't find breakdowns for that.

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In the US, white males 45-54 without a college degree have been dying off at increased rates. They say it's mostly because of increased suicide and drug and alcohol abuse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/a-group-of-middle-aged-american-whites-is-dying-at-a-startling-rate/2015/11/02/47a63098-8172-11e5-8ba6-cec48b74b2a7_story.html

Yeah, I saw that too.  I'm sure those are the main cause but I'd say increased obesity is the background cause that is increasing deaths in all those categories (probably including suicide tbh)

Fat and sick and nearly dead...

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Puerto Rico is going into a demographic death spiral.  Births fell from 17,358 in the first half of 2013 to 15,099 in the first half of 2015.  No doubt that massive decline continues.  At this rate births might have been below 30,000 in 2015.

Keep in mind Puerto Rico had as many as 91,000 births after WWII and still as many as 60,000 in the year 2000.

At the rate PR is going, they could have fertility below 1 child per woman soon... which historically has only happened during periods of extreme disease, famine, or all out war.

Birth control and emigration of young people play the biggest role but the people who hold PR's debt are literally strangling the island.  And the anemic response by congress will not solve it.  

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This is why the NYT article is such a sham.  Yeah.. the death rate went up worldwide because there was a one year temporary increase in f**king drug overdoses and accidental deaths that just happened to coincide with the influenza season which followed a year with a particularly light influenza season that depressed death rates worldwide.

I've officially decided that experts are nothing but complete idiots with credentials.

More likely, people that "should" have died in 2014 didn't and they cheated the Angel of Death for a year and then died at increased rates in 2015 when it got cold and germy and dark.

I would imagine that a stronger prevalence of winter time illness weakens the body rather than kills people in many cases... which makes them susceptible to other forms of death like overdose or falling or ginking your head on a metal bar...

But they really don't look into things. 

It'd be like there's a huge war going on and they would report "there has been a baffling (there's that word) increase in the number of people dying by decapitation!" while not mentioning any other causal factors like THE WAR GOING ON.