Nov. 10 Fox Business GOP debate criteria released: 2.5% poll average required

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2015/10/27/fox-business-network-and-wall-street-journal-present-two-gop-presidential/

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So that’s a 2.5% average required from the four most recent polls from “major nationally-recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques”.  They elaborate that the polls must be live interview, calling both landlines and cell phones.

There’s also a kiddie table debate for those who get 1% in at least one of the four most recent polls, but don’t make it to a 2.5% average.

The polling cutoff is Nov. 4th.

[Mehmentum]

Christie and Kasich are averaging at 2.4% and 2.6% respectively at RCP, so they're currently in danger of falling below the threshold.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Ugh ANOTHER kiddie table debate?

[Mr. Morden]

So we’ll have to wait and see how things turn out, but I think as of today, the four most recent polls that meet these criteria are CBS/NYT, ABC/WaPo, Monmouth University, and NBC/WSJ.  Polling averages from those four would be:

Trump 26.75%
Carson 22%
Rubio 9.25%
Cruz 7.25%
Bush 6.75%
Fiorina 6.25%
Huckabee 3.5%
Paul 3%
Kasich 2.5%

Christie 2%
Graham 1%
Jindal 0.25%
Pataki 0.25%
Santorum 0.25%

Gilmore 0%

So as of right now, Christie would be relegated to the kiddie table for this one, and Kasich is on the bubble.  Also of note: three of these polls (all but CBS/NYT) were taken on the same days, so even if we get one or two more polls, then I assume all would still be included in the average?  It’s not clear how one averages the “four most recent” if there’s a tie on “most recent”.

[JonathanSwift]

I wonder if Christie and/or Kasich drop out if they don't make it in to the primetime debate.

[zs4321]

what's the point of another kids table debate?

[weixiaobao]

Ugh ANOTHER kiddie table debate?

Hmm, don't speak so soon.  2.5%?

Rand Paul need it, NBC poll Paul at 2%, ABC at 2%.  If Paul is to made the next debate, it would be close just like this debate except they lower another .5%.  I am 50-50 on if Rand will make it into the Fox debate.

And this is why there is no media conspiracy of taking down Rand, because if they did.  They could take down a percent (within the margin of error) and have him off the debate tomorrow. 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Ugh ANOTHER kiddie table debate?

Hmm, don't speak so soon.  2.5%?

Rand Paul need it, NBC poll Paul at 2%, ABC at 2%.  If Paul is to made the next debate, it would be close just like this debate except they lower another .5%.  I am 50-50 on if Rand will make it into the Fox debate.

And this is why there is no media conspiracy of taking down Rand, because if they did.  They could take down a percent (within the margin of error) and have him off the debate tomorrow. 

 contrary to popular belief I am NOT 100% behind Rand Paul and Paul and Cruz are very close to each other in terms of who I actually Support and in some days it actually alternates between the two but it mostly has been rand Paul that has generally been getting my Support

[Likely Voter]

I wonder if there will even be 4 new polls out before the deadline. Only nine pollsters meet the criteria and six of them have put out polls in the last two weeks.

There is a good chance today's CBS/NYT poll will be in the final four, which would be good news for Kasich, Paul and Huckabee who got 4%, but bad news for Christie who got 1%. And pretty good news for Graham who got 2%, putting him in the running for making the FOXB debate.

I wonder if Christie (or anyone else who could get relegated) would actually show up. For those with high burn rates and not a lot of cash, that could be the last straw that kills their campaigns.

[The Mikado]

It's safe to assume that IBD/TIPP is not going to factor in, right?

[Mr. Morden]

It's safe to assume that IBD/TIPP is not going to factor in, right?

I actually don’t know.  They are live interview phone polls, so they would seem to meet the criteria, but I don’t know if they meet the other methodological requirements, such as including both landlines and cell phones.

If they are part of the polling average, then here’s where the average now stands for candidates on the bubble:

Huckabee 3.0
Paul 2.8
Kasich 2.2
Christie 1.8

So Huck and Paul would qualify for the 1st tier debate, but Christie and Kasich would both be sent to the kiddie table.

[Senator Cris]

Is the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll included?

[Mr. Morden]

Is the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll included?

No, because it's an online poll.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Maybe being in the kiddie table would help Christie in a way. He'd certainly be able to hog the limelight a bit more if his biggest competitor is Lindsey Graham.

[defe07]

So, how many of the recent polls qualify towards the debate criteria?

[Mr. Morden]

Post-NBC/WSJ update:

OK, our three most recent live interview telephone polls are CBS/NYT, IBD/TIPP, and NBC/WSJ.  If we average those three together, we get:

main debate
Carson 26.0
Trump 24.3
Rubio 10.0
Bush 7.0
Cruz 6.7
Fiorina 4.3
Huckabee 2.7
Kasich 2.7
Paul 2.7

kiddie debate
Christie 1.7
Jindal 0.7
Graham 0.7
Santorum 0.7

doesn’t qualify
Gilmore 0
Pataki 0

Let’s assume that we have just one more poll before the deadline (presumably from Fox).  In that case, while Huck, Kasich, and Paul are in danger of getting sent to the kiddie table, they really only need to get 2% or more in the final poll to make it in (again, assuming that there is only one more poll).  Christie would need 5% to make it in, so he’s in serious trouble.

This is also assuming that IBD/TIPP will get counted.  It’s live interview, but has only done one previous poll this cycle, and not sure if it meets all of their methodological requirements.

[/]

WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY

Come on Christie and Pataki, come on!

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Huckabee, Kasich, and Paul should all be cut out.

[JonathanSwift]

The main debate should be restricted to those with 5% or more. Put everyone else (including Gilmore and Pataki) in the undercard.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

It is truly shameful that a joke candidate like Rand Paul who nobody actually likes and has no chance at the nomination is allowed to participate when the heroic Chris Christie who is a lot of people's second choice and has high favorables and is a real threat is relegated. I hope Donald Trump uses this moment, to half praise Christie as usual while demolishing Rand Paul's presence.

Jeb! obviously shouldn't be there either, but he makes for a nice target practice, so I say let him stay.

[IceSpear]

Will Christie drop out rather than suffer the indignity of being demoted to the kiddie table?

[Likely Voter]

I think it is possible there will be two new polls and that TIPP will not be included, leaving the current average just using CBS and NBC. Those two average out thusly....

Main
Carson   27.5
Trump   22.5
Rubio   9.5
Bush   7.5
Cruz   7.0
Fiorina   5.0
Kasich   3.5
Huckabee   3.5
Paul   3.0

Kiddie
Christie   2.0
Graham   1.0
Santorum   0.5

Out
Jindal   0.0
Pataki   0.0
Gilmore   0.0

Right now we just don't know how many polls will come out, if TIPP is included and (if only 1 new poll comes out and TIPP isn't included) how they will treat the 3 previous polls (since they are all of equal age and so it is impossible to pick the 'latest' of those 3).

But in 48 hours I guess we will know the answer to these things

[Mr. Morden]

The polling cutoff is Wednesday, but they haven't told us what time on Wednesday, have they?

[Likely Voter]

The polling cutoff is Wednesday, but they haven't told us what time on Wednesday, have they?

I assume end of business (5PM Eastern), so I guess that would be more like 44 hours and 7 minutes from this exact moment.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Christie debating Santorum and Graham? LOL