2016 Democratic EV Plurality

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I've been tallying up what would happen if the GOP nominated a very unappealing candidate to the establishment (The Donald), the Democrats nominated Bernie Sanders, and third party candidate managed to steal enough EVs to throw the election into the House.  Assuming the CURRENT House of Representatives, we'd have the following:

14 Democratic state majorities.
3 50/50 states (ME, NH, NJ, which would probably be under pressure to cast for Sanders)

The question is, would there be enough "unfaithful" Republicans to give the election to Sanders?  In the CURRENT House, he would need to pick up all of the following "swing" states:

Arizona (5-4): One unfaithful GOP needed
Colorado (4-3): One unfaithful needed
Iowa (3-1): Two needed
Michigan (9-5): Three needed
Nevada (3-1): Two needed
Wisconsin (5-3): Two needed
Pennsylvania (13-5): Five needed
Ohio (12-4): Five needed
Missouri (6-2): Three needed

The GOP reps in question would need to belong to the more moderate wing of the party.  They would face backlash from their constituents if they violate the will of their state voters.  OTOH, they may face backlash from their constituents if they violate the will of the voters of their district.

It would be interesting.

[SteveRogers]

Republican representatives could find probably find themselves enough cover to vote for Sanders as long as they could argue that they were voting the way that their state or their district voted. If Sanders had an impressive popular vote lead nationwide, there'd be a lot of pressure on Republicans in those states to vote for him. But that would probably still make Missouri a hard get, so I think Trump would still barely pull it off. 

A related and potentially more pressing question is whether the outgoing House or the new House would choose the President. Under current law, the new House would actually choose the president since the Electoral Votes aren't actually counted before congress until the new congress is sworn in in January. However, since Republicans control both houses of congress right now, they could try to pass a bill moving the date for counting the Electoral Votes up to late December, thus allowing them to choose. 

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Republican representatives could find probably find themselves enough cover to vote for Sanders as long as they could argue that they were voting the way that their state or their district voted. If Sanders had an impressive popular vote lead nationwide, there'd be a lot of pressure on Republicans in those states to vote for him. But that would probably still make Missouri a hard get, so I think Trump would still barely pull it off. 

A related and potentially more pressing question is whether the outgoing House or the new House would choose the President. Under current law, the new House would actually choose the president since the Electoral Votes aren't actually counted before congress until the new congress is sworn in in January. However, since Republicans control both houses of congress right now, they could try to pass a bill moving the date for counting the Electoral Votes up to late December, thus allowing them to choose. 

Which, if it had any bearing on the outcome of the election in the House, would be filibustered in the Senate :-).

[SteveRogers]

Republican representatives could find probably find themselves enough cover to vote for Sanders as long as they could argue that they were voting the way that their state or their district voted. If Sanders had an impressive popular vote lead nationwide, there'd be a lot of pressure on Republicans in those states to vote for him. But that would probably still make Missouri a hard get, so I think Trump would still barely pull it off. 

A related and potentially more pressing question is whether the outgoing House or the new House would choose the President. Under current law, the new House would actually choose the president since the Electoral Votes aren't actually counted before congress until the new congress is sworn in in January. However, since Republicans control both houses of congress right now, they could try to pass a bill moving the date for counting the Electoral Votes up to late December, thus allowing them to choose. 

Which, if it had any bearing on the outcome of the election in the House, would be filibustered in the Senate :-).

Well yes, although in an extreme scenario where it meant winning the White House, I wonder whether Senate Republicans would be willing to nuke the filibuster.