Gravis Debate Poll: Trump, Rubio, Cruz the winners, Bush, Paul the losers.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.oann.com/gopdebate/

[dudeabides]

Unbelievable. Trump can't answer questions, he comes across as obnoxious, and yet 26% here think he won.

[Phony Moderate]

Unbelievable. Trump can't answer questions, he comes across as obnoxious, and yet 26% here think he won.

'Winning' debates isn't necessarily about answering questions and being pleasant.

[Mehmentum]

Won Debate - Lost Debate:
Winners:
Rubio: 18.8
Trump: 17.9
Cruz: 15.3
Carson: 8.3

Breakeven:
Christie: 1.7
Fiorina: -1.3
Huckabee: -2.8

Losers:
Kasich: -12.0
Paul: -21.7
Bush: -24.1

[heatmaster]

Rubio's trajectory is in an upward swing and that's why Trump is attacking him in a snide and sneaky way and denies crap he said when he's called on it. All the bum does is attack. Rubio is hurting the pro-Trump narrative and it's now becoming by process of elimination, that Rubio is the only person who can go toe to toe with Hillary. Trump is slowly realizing that nobody seriously buys the concept that he will be the nominee. He can't stand it, that Rubio is way to quick on his feet and so much smarter than that dumbass from Trump Tower😀😊

[Penelope]

Despite being Gravis, this poll seems very believable.

Kasich: -12.0
Paul: -21.7
Bush: -24.1

It's over, Jeb! is finished.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Despite being Gravis, this poll seems very believable.

Kasich: -12.0
Paul: -21.7
Bush: -24.1

It's over, Jeb! is finished.

As Taegan Goddard said yesterday, "Jeb is dead baby, Jeb is dead".

[eric82oslo]

I think this poll overestimates Trump's performance (and so does every other similar poll due to the huge number of Trump fanatics), while clearly underestimating (almost gravely) the good to great performances of Christie and Kasich. But for the other 7 candidates I pretty much agree with the results, except for the fact that Carson is slightly overestimated as well.

[eric82oslo]

Despite being Gravis, this poll seems very believable.

Kasich: -12.0
Paul: -21.7
Bush: -24.1

It's over, Jeb! is finished.

As Taegan Goddard said yesterday, "Jeb is dead baby, Jeb is dead".

You know that Jeb is in serious trouble when even Nate Silver has given up on him, lol.

[Blair]

It's like when Corbyn won 78% of the debate polls after saying that Labour lost because we didn't print enough money

[emailking]

Won Debate - Lost Debate:
Winners:
Rubio: 18.8
Trump: 17.9
Cruz: 15.3
Carson: 8.3

Breakeven:
Christie: 1.7
Fiorina: -1.3
Huckabee: -2.8

Losers:
Kasich: -12.0
Paul: -21.7
Bush: -24.1

I don't think this statistic really tells you anything useful. It's not like favorability vs. unfavorability because each person polled does not express an opinion about each candidate when they select an overall winner and an overall loser. For example, suppose that everyone who thought Jeb did the worst instead thought Paul did the worst. Now Bush is +2.1% on the subtraction of "Won Debate - Lost Debate" even though not much has changed.

[Blue3]

For once I agree with the poll results

[muon2]

I think this poll overestimates Trump's performance (and so does every other similar poll due to the huge number of Trump fanatics), while clearly underestimating (almost gravely) the good to great performances of Christie and Kasich. But for the other 7 candidates I pretty much agree with the results, except for the fact that Carson is slightly overestimated as well.

The view of Kasich's performance last night very much depends on which side of the aisle one sits. Politico posted it's analysis from activists and insiders in the first four primary states. Among Dems 11% had Kasich as the overall winner, but 0% of the Pubs put him there. Christie was just the reverse with 14% of Pubs giving him the win, but no Dems.

[King]

More important is the change in the horse race since the last Gravis national poll:

Trump -3
Carson +1
Rubio +4
Cruz +2
Fiorina +0
Rand +3
Jeb -3 (RIP)
Christie +1
Kasich +0
Huckabee -2
Graham -1

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I just can't see Jeb making it. He's making Giuliani look like a more successful campaign, and sadly I voted for Rudy in the SC primary.

[Cory]

Is this an internet poll? Because that would explain everything.

[Ebsy]

Is this an internet poll? Because that would explain everything.

Automated-phone(IVR)

[Maxwell]

I think improvement of opinion numbers are also important -

More Favorable - Less Favorable
+48 Rubio (64-16)
+46 Cruz (62-16)
+43 Christie (58-15)
+31 Carson (51-20)
+27 Trump (50-23)
+27 Fiorina (52-25)
+20 Huckabee (42-22)
-5 Kasich (32-37)
-22 Paul (21-43) R.I.P.
-34 Bush (17-51) R.I.P.

There's a top tier of Rubio, Cruz, and Christie, and then Carson and Trump stabilize their position, Fiorina continues to be well-liked among GOP voters, and Huckabee is meh.

[Mehmentum]

I think improvement of opinion numbers are also important -

More Favorable - Less Favorable
+48 Rubio (64-16)
+46 Cruz (62-16)
+43 Christie (58-15)
+31 Carson (51-20)
+27 Trump (50-23)
+27 Fiorina (52-25)
+20 Huckabee (42-22)
-5 Kasich (32-37)
-22 Paul (21-43) R.I.P.
-34 Bush (17-51) R.I.P.

There's a top tier of Rubio, Cruz, and Christie, and then Carson and Trump stabilize their position, Fiorina continues to be well-liked among GOP voters, and Huckabee is meh.

In the past, Carson has been almost universally the most liked candidate, while Christie has had poor favorability numbers.  Either this represents a real change, or Gravis is being junk as usual.

[Maxwell]

I think improvement of opinion numbers are also important -

More Favorable - Less Favorable
+48 Rubio (64-16)
+46 Cruz (62-16)
+43 Christie (58-15)
+31 Carson (51-20)
+27 Trump (50-23)
+27 Fiorina (52-25)
+20 Huckabee (42-22)
-5 Kasich (32-37)
-22 Paul (21-43) R.I.P.
-34 Bush (17-51) R.I.P.

There's a top tier of Rubio, Cruz, and Christie, and then Carson and Trump stabilize their position, Fiorina continues to be well-liked among GOP voters, and Huckabee is meh.

In the past, Carson has been almost universally the most liked candidate, while Christie has had poor favorability numbers.  Either this represents a real change, or Gravis is being junk as usual.

This is saying, based on the debate, who did you like more afterwards. It's not saying who is more liked overall - I suspect some liked Christie more but still hate him, while some liked Carson a little less and still like him.

I have no doubt Christie and the other top tier competitors improved, how much they improved is key.

[eric82oslo]

I think improvement of opinion numbers are also important -

More Favorable - Less Favorable
+48 Rubio (64-16)
+46 Cruz (62-16)
+43 Christie (58-15)
+31 Carson (51-20)
+27 Trump (50-23)
+27 Fiorina (52-25)
+20 Huckabee (42-22)
-5 Kasich (32-37)
-22 Paul (21-43) R.I.P.
-34 Bush (17-51) R.I.P.

There's a top tier of Rubio, Cruz, and Christie, and then Carson and Trump stabilize their position, Fiorina continues to be well-liked among GOP voters, and Huckabee is meh.

In the past, Carson has been almost universally the most liked candidate, while Christie has had poor favorability numbers.  Either this represents a real change, or Gravis is being junk as usual.

I told you guys that a lot of Carson's momentum has been based on his cool, novelty jokes/humour. Actually this was Carson's worst debate till date, while it was by far Trump's best and least embarrassing one.

[Enduro]

Paul isn't dropping out yet, but I'm watching Kasich and Bush.