KY-Vox Populi (R): Paul leads Edelen

[MT Treasurer]

Rand Paul (R, inc.): 47%
Adam Edelen (D): 37%

http://static.politico.com/5b/a6/17061a594edeafd7fe5348a93df1/vox-populi-kentucky-crosstabs.pdf

[Bigby]

Not a big surprise.

[ElectionsGuy]

Its a doomed Senate seat for Paul. Rachel Maddow told me so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Adam will win if he runs.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Adam will win if he runs.

No, he won't, barring an open seat situation + a poor R Nominee + a 2008-like political climate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We havent heard if he is running. But Conway was at a dusadvantage in KY when he ran against Bevin. McConnell just said to Paul focus on Senate race. Fischer wont win, but Dems will have a race if Adam runs.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We havent heard if he is running. But Conway was at a dusadvantage in KY when he ran against Bevin. McConnell just said to Paul focus on Senate race. Fischer wont win, but Dems will have a race if Adam runs.

If you define a race as losing by 8 or 10 instead of by 15 or 17, then maybe.

Gubernatorial and Senate Races are 2 very different things. Kentucky is deeply atlas blue for the Senate and purple-atlas red for the governor's chair. That's how it's been for several cycles and it should stay that way for at least the next few years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We havent heard if he is running. But Conway was at a dusadvantage in KY when he ran against Bevin. McConnell just said to Paul focus on Senate race. Fischer wont win, but Dems will have a race if Adam runs.

If you define a race as losing by 8 or 10 instead of by 15 or 17, then maybe.

Gubernatorial and Senate Races are 2 very different things. Kentucky is deeply atlas blue for the Senate and purple-atlas red for the governor's chair. That's how it's been for several cycles and it should stay that way for at least the next few years.

McConnell was leading Grimes by four pts before her gaffe, and if it wasnt for Aqua Buddha, Paul was barely leading Conway in 2010. Dems should field a candidate, even if it is Fischer

[Vosem]

What Democrats will try to do here in the event of an Edelen candidacy is try to distract Republican monies and have some wave insurance. Edelen will probably manage both quite respectably, but we're not very likely to hear "Senator Edelen".

[Xing]

I'm skeptical that Paul is in any danger, but this is Vox Populi here. It's the same poll that found Conway and Bevin tied, while all other polls gave Conway a slight lead. It's just one poll, but it's not a good one for Paul, who should be doing much better.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What Democrats will try to do here in the event of an Edelen candidacy is try to distract Republican monies and have some wave insurance. Edelen will probably manage both quite respectably, but we're not very likely to hear "Senator Edelen".

Senator Edelen can win this race. Look what happened in OH, Portman was safe, poll after poll have given Strickland the lead. Sen majority will be nice with pickups in OH/KY, FL, NH, WI & IL.

[Vosem]

What Democrats will try to do here in the event of an Edelen candidacy is try to distract Republican monies and have some wave insurance. Edelen will probably manage both quite respectably, but we're not very likely to hear "Senator Edelen".

Senator Edelen can win this race. Look what happened in OH, Portman was safe, poll after poll have given Strickland the lead. Sen majority will be nice with pickups in OH/KY, FL, NH, WI & IL.

You realize the election in Ohio is more than a year from now, that Portman has way outraised Strickland, and that many prognosticators still have Ohio as Leans R, right?

In any case, even if all the races you list go Democratic, the Democratic Senate majority won't be "nice"; it'll be an exceedingly narrow 52-48 and probably doomed once elections happen in IN/MO/MT/ND in 2018.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What Democrats will try to do here in the event of an Edelen candidacy is try to distract Republican monies and have some wave insurance. Edelen will probably manage both quite respectably, but we're not very likely to hear "Senator Edelen".

Senator Edelen can win this race. Look what happened in OH, Portman was safe, poll after poll have given Strickland the lead. Sen majority will be nice with pickups in OH/KY, FL, NH, WI & IL.

You realize the election in Ohio is more than a year from now, that Portman has way outraised Strickland, and that many prognosticators still have Ohio as Leans R, right?

In any case, even if all the races you list go Democratic, the Democratic Senate majority won't be "nice"; it'll be an exceedingly narrow 52-48 and probably doomed once elections happen in IN/MO/MT/ND in 2018.


QUINNIPIAC the best pollster in the business has had Strickland ahead in every poll, 5 polls. I believe Hillary will win OH and Va.  The prognosticators is basing their predictions that Clinton will win 272 blue wall. But, Hillary polls better in Va and OH than CO.

Only Joe Donnelly is doomed in IN as I see right now. And Ross Miller can certainly run for NV senate.

But even if Dems lose their Senate majority, 2020 wont be kind to GOP because Dems are gonna pick up govs from term limite GOP govs in 2018, especially in IL, WI & MI,, and finally lead in reapportionment.

[Lief 🗽]

good to see Vox Populi is polling again; they were the Gold Standard in 2014

[MT Treasurer]

I'm skeptical that Paul is in any danger, but this is Vox Populi here. It's the same poll that found Conway and Bevin tied, while all other polls gave Conway a slight lead. It's just one poll, but it's not a good one for Paul, who should be doing much better.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201587.0

Just because it's a Republican polling firm, that doesn't make it junk. Not to mention that those numbers are quite plausible since other polls have shown Paul up 10-12 as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Up 8-10 pts on an opponent who hasnt announced yet. The GOP is in trouble in Appapachia. In Va, WVa, in which Jupiter is leading. OH is which Strickland leads Portman. Edelen, can win this race.        

[Xing]

I'm skeptical that Paul is in any danger, but this is Vox Populi here. It's the same poll that found Conway and Bevin tied, while all other polls gave Conway a slight lead. It's just one poll, but it's not a good one for Paul, who should be doing much better.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201587.0

Just because it's a Republican polling firm, that doesn't make it junk. Not to mention that those numbers are quite plausible since other polls have shown Paul up 10-12 as well.

Even if this particular poll happens to be accurate (which is a stretch, since, as I pointed out, its results for the gubernatorial race were not in line with other polls), it's still a bad poll for Paul. He should be up by more than 10 against an opponent who hasn't declared yet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Conway becomes Gov, & Edelen runs for Senate. So, the GOP can pour millions away from OH, the real race of this election. This race is a wave insurance, after Dems get the majority, with Strickland in the Senate, of course.

[JMT]

Many have floated Edelen's name, but do people think he will actually make the decision to run for Senate? Do people see this as likely, or no?

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

What Democrats will try to do here in the event of an Edelen candidacy is try to distract Republican monies and have some wave insurance. Edelen will probably manage both quite respectably, but we're not very likely to hear "Senator Edelen".

Senator Edelen can win this race. Look what happened in OH, Portman was safe, poll after poll have given Strickland the lead. Sen majority will be nice with pickups in OH/KY, FL, NH, WI & IL.

You realize the election in Ohio is more than a year from now, that Portman has way outraised Strickland, and that many prognosticators still have Ohio as Leans R, right?

In any case, even if all the races you list go Democratic, the Democratic Senate majority won't be "nice"; it'll be an exceedingly narrow 52-48 and probably doomed once elections happen in IN/MO/MT/ND in 2018.

QUINNIPIAC the best pollster in the business has had Strickland ahead in every poll, 5 polls. I believe Hillary will win OH and Va.  The prognosticators is basing their predictions that Clinton will win 272 blue wall. But, Hillary polls better in Va and OH than CO.

Only Joe Donnelly is doomed in IN as I see right now. And Ross Miller can certainly run for NV senate.

But even if Dems lose their Senate majority, 2020 wont be kind to GOP because Dems are gonna pick up govs from term limite GOP govs in 2018, especially in IL, WI & MI, and finally lead in reapportionment.

Donnelly is certainly the underdog, but I think "doomed" is too strong a word, especially considering the election is still three years off. He's taken standard "blue dog" positions on gun control, Keystone, and immigration, which should help him with swing voters; meanwhile, his support for gay marriage (in contrast to most of the state GOP) should keep liberals enthused (and might poach some business conservatives as well). His only questionable position from a reelection standpoint was his vote for the Iran deal, but the fact that Lugar endorsed the deal should soften the blow somewhat. If the GOP nominates a divisive Tea Partier in 2018 (there's been talk that State Senator Mike Delph, who almost lost to his Democratic opponent in Hamilton County last year after blaming religious leaders for creating a "godless culture," might run), he just might pull it off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Many have floated Edelen's name, but do people think he will actually make the decision to run for Senate? Do people see this as likely, or no?

He wants to go beyond state auditor, perhaps if this is an open seat he will run. But, 2020 is more likely against McConnell. He is a rising star in KY politics.

[Maxwell]

Many have floated Edelen's name, but do people think he will actually make the decision to run for Senate? Do people see this as likely, or no?

He kind of has to win re-election before doing this, so Edelen is a less than likely candidate imo.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Edelen wanted it, if he won reelection as auditor, then the Dem nomination is his. PAUL is difficult to beat, and so will McConnell be in 2020.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Will McConnell even run again in '20? He'll be mighty old.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 2016, Trump will be on ballot, whose by far the GOP's weaker nominees. In 2020, they probably will have someone stronger. The choice is Edelen, who must win reelection.