Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[ElectionsGuy]

Grimes: 55%
Knipper: 45%

Beshear: 54%
Westerfield: 46%

Edelen: 52%
Harmon: 48%

Conway: 48-49%
Bevin: 47-48%
Curtis: 3-4%

Ball: 53%
Nelson: 47%

Quarles: 57%
Spann: 43%

(By the way, something like 47-48% means between those two, I'm not considering 48.4% as 48% for this practice)

I made a final decision about the Governor's race. I'm predicting a very slight Conway victory. After looking deep into polling data and fundamentals, I think Conway winning is more likely. Here's a list of things that convinced me...

 - Matt Bevin's biggest problem is Beshear's approval rating - nearly 60%. Conway can build off that. Its the opposite of LA-Gov, where Edwards is building off of Jindal's unpopularity.
 - Conway's favorability is better than Bevin's. This matters in a non-federal election.
 - As Obama nears the end of his term, he is increasingly less relevant. Bevin can't really say OBAMA! without voters wondering why he's doing it as it has no relevance to statewide politics.
 - Conway is getting almost all Democrats. In both the 2014 Senate race and 2012 Presidential Race, the Republicans got >20% of Democrats. Independents are also up for grabs, usually heavily Republican in Kentucky.
 - Older voters (65+), more likely to be a large segment of the electorate in this low turnout environment, are actually leaning more Conway than any other age group.
 - Only around 8% are undecided. They would have to ALL go for Bevin at this point in order to save him. Many of them are mostly independent and conservative, leading to a likely Bevin-leaning demographic. Its still not enough though. There's plenty of blacks, liberals, and younger voters that haven't made up their mind.

The only points helping Bevin is the Republican trend of the state (not yet seen in statewide offices, btw) and the difficulty imaging what a map of Conway winning would look like, but those aren't very strong points. Unless the polls are completely wrong (and with the margin of error, they could be), this is the logical conclusion. So I'm predicting the margin of victory won't be as big as the polls suggest, but the late Bevin surge won't be enough. I hope I'm wrong. Still, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Bevin win by 3 points or something.

Republicans sweep all statewide offices.

Did you see the poll that had Grimes +13?

Clearly you never met Talleyrand. He thinks that the Democrats should just fold because they'll lose every election imaginable to the Republicans.

I wouldn't brush him off. He had one of the most accurate predictions in 2014.

[The_Doctor]

Governor:

Jack Conway (D): 49.3% - WINNER
Matthew Bevin (R): 47.6%
Drew Curtis (I): 3.1%

[The Other Castro]

I'm surprised by how poorly everyone seems to think Curtis will do in the election.

[FDRfan1985]

Conway wins 55-45%

The odds also in Conway's favor since the Democrats have won majority of the Governor elections  since 1931 save for three. 1943,1967, and 2003.

[Maxwell]

I'm surprised by how poorly everyone seems to think Curtis will do in the election.

Third Party candidates ALWAYS flat-line hard on election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conway should win this by what the final poll had out 50-45-5. Bevin will come up short on election day, because Curtis will take some of his support away.

[Maxwell]

Okay let's look into the other races

52% Beshear
48% Westerfield

51% Grimes
49% Knipper

52% Harmon
48% Edelen

55% Ball
45% Nelson

58% Quarles
42% Spann

Those are my predictions. I think non-Conway democrats will significantly underperform the polls.

[Cryptic]

Governor's Race:

Conway: 49%
Bevin: 47%
Curtis: 4%

Downballot Races:

Beshear, Grimes, and Edelen win for the Democrats.

Quarles, and Ball win for the Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Republicans sweep all statewide offices.

Did you see the poll that had Grimes +13?

Clearly you never met Talleyrand. He thinks that the Democrats should just fold because they'll lose every election imaginable to the Republicans.

I wouldn't brush him off. He had one of the most accurate predictions in 2014.
[/quote]

He also predicted that the Conservatives would hold on in Canada.

[CountyTy90]

Any specific website where I can watch results coming in? Will CNN be doing any coverage?

[Miles]

Any specific website where I can watch results coming in? Will CNN be doing any coverage?

Here's where the SOS site will have results.

We'll also be covering it over at AOS.

[The Other Castro]

I just realized that Drew Curtis' Lt. Governor running mate is his wife Heather Curtis. That's kind of cute.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I just realized that Drew Curtis' Lt. Governor running mate is his wife Heather Curtis. That's kind of cute.

D'awwww!! That's adorable! I know I said I didn't care about this race one bit, but what they hey! I will formally endorse the Curtis' right now just for that. Hopefully I put them over the top.

[Skye]

Any specific website where I can watch results coming in? Will CNN be doing any coverage?

Here's where the SOS site will have results.

We'll also be covering it over at AOS.

Yikes, didn't expect Grimes to greet me that way.

[Miles]

I just realized that Drew Curtis' Lt. Governor running mate is his wife Heather Curtis. That's kind of cute.

D'awwww!! That's adorable! I know I said I didn't care about this race one bit, but what they hey! I will formally endorse the Curtis' right now just for that. Hopefully I put them over the top.

FWIW, the Libertarians in the 2014 Kansas Governor's race were father and son.

[morgieb]

Republicans sweep all statewide offices.

Did you see the poll that had Grimes +13?

Clearly you never met Talleyrand. He thinks that the Democrats should just fold because they'll lose every election imaginable to the Republicans.

I wouldn't brush him off. He had one of the most accurate predictions in 2014.

Different country admittedly but all his Australian predictions have been way OTT for the Liberals. Judging by his lack of success elsewhere I'm putting that down as a fluke

[Podgy the Bear]

49-47-3   Conway-Bevin-Curtis

Beshear is still reasonably popular--that doesn't necessarily help Conway--but it limits the voting that come out only in an "it's time for a change" situation.

[CountyTy90]

Any specific website where I can watch results coming in? Will CNN be doing any coverage?

Here's where the SOS site will have results.

We'll also be covering it over at AOS.

Thanks Miles!

[Miles]

Conway - 49.8%
Bevin - 46.5%
Curtis - 3.7%

I'll say Grimes wins 55/45. Edelen and Beshear have closer results, but win by about the same margin. Quarles and Ball win their races.

[Mr. Illini]

Preparing for loss to avoid a slice of the disappointment from last year.

Will be pleasantly surprised if Conway emerges victorious.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls close at 6 PM EST for eastern kentucky, 7 PM EST for western kentucky

AP Results here - http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/MS_Page_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

AOS will have coverage of the gubernatorial race only.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Polls close at 6 PM EST for eastern kentucky, 7 PM EST for western kentucky

AP Results here - http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/MS_Page_1103.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

AOS will have coverage of the gubernatorial race only.

What's AOS, and will there be any TV coverage of it?  Some of the Nashville stations cover small portions of Kentucky, so maybe some local coverage?

[Miles]

^ AOS is Ace of Spades.

Probably the bets outlet, if I say so myself...

[Bojack Horseman]

Jack Conway 53%
Matt Bevin 47%

[The Other Castro]

When should we expect the first results to come in?