Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Someone on Facebook said that 17 Democratic members of the Kentucky House are switching to the GOP. If true, it would be dumb on their part, after the way the Republicans negatively campaigned against them.

[user12345]

My gosh that is depressing.

Oh that's nothing- try comparing the House elections between 2008 to 2014!

First here's 2008. Map is from wikipedia so the colors are reversed.

Note Democratic wins in 3/4 of Mississippi, 3/4 of Arkansas, 3/7 of Alabama, 6/13 of Georgia, every district in New England, and all but three in New York. Total spread is 257 D vs 178 R (click map to embiggen)




And this is 2014, posted without comment. Spread is 247 R - 188 D (and again, click map to embiggen)

Gotta love ole Debbies strategy to success.

[user12345]

Someone on Facebook said that 17 Democratic members of the Kentucky House are switching to the GOP. If true, it would be dumb on their part, after the way the Republicans negatively campaigned against them.

Everything on Facebook is true

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY votes more like TN now, than its Appalachian counterparts. Dems are no longer electable in KY, statewide, but in local elections.

[Matty]

Where can I find exit poll data?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Following Bandit's common talking point to it's logical conclusion, the President should be the mayor of New York with the Vice President being mayor of LA, The mayor of London should be PM, and China should make all the decisions at the UN.

[Figueira]

Good lord! People actually voted Democratic in places where people actually LIVE!!!

lol i love progressive tears

LOL! Depriving people of their health insurance (possibly killing them) is so fun! LOL!

[Miles]

The Bluegrass poll fired SUSA as their pollster.

[Figueira]

KY votes more like TN now, than its Appalachian counterparts. Dems are no longer electable in KY, statewide, but in local elections.

It appears to be trending that way, but it hasn't fallen to Tennessee levels quite yet.

[Maxwell]

KY votes more like TN now, than its Appalachian counterparts. Dems are no longer electable in KY, statewide, but in local elections.

It appears to be trending that way, but it hasn't fallen to Tennessee levels quite yet.

Kentucky still has two statewide officers, one of which I believe has a future if he runs the way his father ran.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

KY votes more like TN now, than its Appalachian counterparts. Dems are no longer electable in KY, statewide, but in local elections.

It appears to be trending that way, but it hasn't fallen to Tennessee levels quite yet.

It has potential to fall significantly further than Tennessee.  Louisville isn't Memphis.  Wouldn't be surprised at all if KY/WV/AR are voting consistently 70% R in federal races in the 2020's.  Also, Manchin now needs a miracle, or a Republican president with 30% approval.

It might be time for Manchin to consider a party switch- he could probably survive in West Virginia if he ran as a Republican (don't know if they would try to primary him).

[Figueira]

KY votes more like TN now, than its Appalachian counterparts. Dems are no longer electable in KY, statewide, but in local elections.

It appears to be trending that way, but it hasn't fallen to Tennessee levels quite yet.

It has potential to fall significantly further than Tennessee.  Louisville isn't Memphis.  Wouldn't be surprised at all if KY/WV/AR are voting consistently 70% R in federal races in the 2020's.  Also, Manchin now needs a miracle, or a Republican president with 30% approval.

Not sure about Manchin, but I agree that KY will probably at some point in the near future be more R than TN (maybe TN will actually start trending D slightly, although not enough to really make a difference). However, it hasn't happened yet. Jack Conway is not Charlie Brown.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

KY votes more like TN now, than its Appalachian counterparts. Dems are no longer electable in KY, statewide, but in local elections.

It appears to be trending that way, but it hasn't fallen to Tennessee levels quite yet.

It has potential to fall significantly further than Tennessee.  Louisville isn't Memphis.  Wouldn't be surprised at all if KY/WV/AR are voting consistently 70% R in federal races in the 2020's.  Also, Manchin now needs a miracle, or a Republican president with 30% approval.

It might be time for Manchin to consider a party switch- he could probably survive in West Virginia if he ran as a Republican (don't know if they would try to primary him).

He'd survive anyway, because he's moderate/conservative enough to win even as a Democrat.

[HAnnA MArin County]

So ugly.

Yay Missouri!

One bright spot for Democrats in Kentucky: Rowan County, home of the notorious bigot Kim Davis, was won by Jack Conway. I guess Kim's party switch really didn't have an effect there

[Bandit3 the Worker]

One bright spot for Democrats in Kentucky: Rowan County, home of the notorious bigot Kim Davis, was won by Jack Conway. I guess Kim's party switch really didn't have an effect there

I can't understand why Conway didn't win Rowan County by more.

[Badger]

Good lord! People actually voted Democratic in places where people actually LIVE!!!

Huh?

Well they did. Conway won the northern half of Campbell County.

And got demolished in the rest of the county. So what?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And got demolished in the rest of the county. So what?

Why are rural areas allowed to decide entire elections for urban areas?

[user12345]

And got demolished in the rest of the county. So what?

Why are rural areas allowed to decide entire elections for urban areas?

Because their vote is worth as much as urban votes?

[Badger]

Bandit: The left-wing JCL.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Bandit: The left-wing JCL.

I've never heard JCL say that some people's votes are worth more than others.

[Figueira]

I don't know about JCL, but I've heard a lot of conservatives on this site and elsewhere complain about urban areas like Detroit "deciding elections" for entire states. It's obviously ridiculous when either side does it, but Bandit is the only person I've seen make the opposite argument from the usual one.

[Skye]

And got demolished in the rest of the county. So what?

Why are rural areas allowed to decide entire elections for urban areas?

Excuse me? It's not like there aren't actual people voting in rural places.

[Bacon King]

Yeah for every Kentucky you'll have an Illinois. With a urban vs rural political divide you're always going to have some states where rural outvotes urban, and some states where urban outvotes rural.

The only semi-plausible solution is to increase the number of states so radically different areas can be split apart and be more homogenous

[FDRfan1985]

This election is got me behind the idea that mandatory voting wont be so bad. 

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bandit: The left-wing JCL.

I've never heard JCL say that some people's votes are worth more than others.

You're right, he has said much worse things.