Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread
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Author Topic: Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread  (Read 52522 times)
Figueira
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« Reply #100 on: November 03, 2015, 06:50:53 PM »
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on November 03, 2015, 06:50:04 PM
The Pike County thing was apparently a misprint, but now Owen County is all in, and Conway won it by 5%. I thought Bevin would win Owen.

Nope, Owen was a misprint as well.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #101 on: November 03, 2015, 06:51:18 PM »
Pike County went 74% for Romney in 2012.  It's comparing apples to oranges but still...
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #102 on: November 03, 2015, 06:52:10 PM »
Calling it for Bevin; Conway underperforming across the board. Looks like we're nearing the end of Kentucky Democrats. RIP FFs. Sad
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Figueira
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« Reply #103 on: November 03, 2015, 06:52:24 PM »
Quote from: mollybecky on November 03, 2015, 06:51:18 PM
Pike County went 74% for Romney in 2012.  It's comparing apples to oranges but still...

Speaking of which, what's the best comparison for this race? I've been comparing it to the 2011 gubernatorial election.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #104 on: November 03, 2015, 06:52:38 PM »

Big Lexington surge for him.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #105 on: November 03, 2015, 06:53:23 PM »
Quote from: 84285 on November 03, 2015, 06:52:24 PM
Quote from: mollybecky on November 03, 2015, 06:51:18 PM
Pike County went 74% for Romney in 2012.  It's comparing apples to oranges but still...

Speaking of which, what's the best comparison for this race? I've been comparing it to the 2011 gubernatorial election.

There's really nothing reliable to compare it to, since 2011 was such a blowout, and had a stronger independent candidate.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #106 on: November 03, 2015, 06:53:55 PM »
Conway is up in Kenton County. Lol.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #107 on: November 03, 2015, 06:54:02 PM »
Kenton county going for Conway by a lot so far. May be areas close to the river, but still.

Quote from: Talleyrand on November 03, 2015, 06:52:10 PM
Calling it for Bevin; Conway underperforming across the board. Looks like we're nearing the end of Kentucky Democrats. RIP FFs. Sad

Stop.
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kansasdemocrat
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« Reply #108 on: November 03, 2015, 06:54:15 PM »
Conway leads in Kenton County. Stick a fork in Bevin!
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #109 on: November 03, 2015, 06:55:11 PM »
Conway leading Kenton County by 17%? If anything's a misprint, it's that.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #110 on: November 03, 2015, 06:55:52 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on November 03, 2015, 06:54:02 PM
Kenton county going for Conway by a lot so far. May be areas close to the river, but still.

Quote from: Talleyrand on November 03, 2015, 06:52:10 PM
Calling it for Bevin; Conway underperforming across the board. Looks like we're nearing the end of Kentucky Democrats. RIP FFs. Sad

Stop.

Roll Eyes
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seanNJ9
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« Reply #111 on: November 03, 2015, 06:55:58 PM »
Conway is gonna lose.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #112 on: November 03, 2015, 06:56:01 PM »
Republican parts of Jefferson starting to report.  Skewing the results to the right for next half hour or so.
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Figueira
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« Reply #113 on: November 03, 2015, 06:57:24 PM »
I think it's way too early to write either candidate's political obituary at this point.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #114 on: November 03, 2015, 06:57:39 PM »
Beshear, Grimes, and Edelen all at 55% with 9% in.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #115 on: November 03, 2015, 06:57:59 PM »
Conway shown up by 4% in Jefferson Co - that means healthy Dem surge should accompany 6CT close in GOP Western KY
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100% pro-life no matter what
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« Reply #116 on: November 03, 2015, 06:58:56 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Illini on November 03, 2015, 06:57:59 PM
Conway shown up by 4% in Jefferson Co - that means healthy Dem surge should accompany 6CT close in GOP Western KY

Jefferson County is Louisville, right?  If so, that's not bad for Bevin at all.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #117 on: November 03, 2015, 06:59:42 PM »
Agriculture Commissioner - General
316 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 9%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Quarles, Ryan   GOP   48,463   55%
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   39,510   45%

Attorney General - General
328 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 9%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   51,381   55%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   42,184   45%

Auditor - General
320 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 9%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   48,854   55%
Harmon, Mike   GOP   40,726   45%

Secretary of State - General
344 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 9%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   54,172   56%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   42,842   44%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
75 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 15%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   6,641   57%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   5,007   43%

Treasurer - General
316 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 9%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ball, Allison   GOP   48,760   55%
Nelson, Rick   Dem   39,603   45%

Polls now closing in Western Kentucky.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #118 on: November 03, 2015, 06:59:48 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on November 03, 2015, 06:58:56 PM
Quote from: Mr. Illini on November 03, 2015, 06:57:59 PM
Conway shown up by 4% in Jefferson Co - that means healthy Dem surge should accompany 6CT close in GOP Western KY

Jefferson County is Louisville, right?  If so, that's not bad for Bevin at all.

Yeah, but the inner city areas presumably still have to report, and those will be >70% Conway
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #119 on: November 03, 2015, 07:02:31 PM »
Boyd, Greenup, and Carter counties in the northeast are Bevin with a substantial amount reported. That's not good for Conway.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #120 on: November 03, 2015, 07:03:34 PM »
Dems getting weaker Sad

Agriculture Commissioner - General
419 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 11%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Quarles, Ryan   GOP   61,865   56%
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   49,481   44%

Attorney General - General
460 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 12%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   65,110   53%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   57,932   47%

Auditor - General
457 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 12%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   62,040   52%
Harmon, Mike   GOP   57,440   48%

Governor - General
514 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 14%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bevin, Matt   GOP   73,759   51%
Conway, Jack   Dem   65,000   45%
Curtis, Drew   Ind   5,507   4%

Secretary of State - General
464 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 13%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   67,479   54%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   57,237   46%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
106 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 21%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   9,073   57%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   6,745   43%

Treasurer - General
433 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 12%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ball, Allison   GOP   64,498   56%
Nelson, Rick   Dem   49,730   44%
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windjammer
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« Reply #121 on: November 03, 2015, 07:04:14 PM »
So Bevin, grimes, beshear, edelen winning? Apparently Iwas right hHehe Tongue
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seanNJ9
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« Reply #122 on: November 03, 2015, 07:04:26 PM »
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 55s56 seconds ago

So far, 71% of counted #KYgov votes are from Louisville/Lexington and race is tied, per @AoSHQDD. Ominous for Conway, but long way to go.
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #123 on: November 03, 2015, 07:04:36 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on November 03, 2015, 07:02:31 PM
Boyd, Greenup, and Carter counties in the northeast are Bevin with a substantial amount reported. That's not good for Conway.

Boyd and Carter margins are narrow
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kansasdemocrat
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« Reply #124 on: November 03, 2015, 07:06:12 PM »
Quote from: seanNJ9 on November 03, 2015, 07:04:26 PM
Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict 55s56 seconds ago

So far, 71% of counted #KYgov votes are from Louisville/Lexington and race is tied, per @AoSHQDD. Ominous for Conway, but long way to go.

71% of those counted doesn't mean 71% of the vote there is counted. Until we hear more from Louisville and the West, we won't know more.
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