Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[ElectionsGuy]

Congratulations Governor-elect Matt Bevin. Wow. I didn't think he'd win.

Let's be cautious. This is still close.

No its not.

I consider 4 points close. But yeah, I think Bevin will actually expand it a little and win at this point.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Agriculture Commissioner - General
1611 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 44%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Quarles, Ryan   GOP   231,987   58%
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   171,296   42%

Attorney General - General
1627 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 44%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   218,869   52%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   198,214   48%

Auditor - General
1627 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 44%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   209,822   51%
Harmon, Mike   GOP   199,459   49%

Governor - General
1641 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 44%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bevin, Matt   GOP   213,492   50%
Conway, Jack   Dem   197,493   46%
Curtis, Drew   Ind   16,834   4%

Secretary of State - General
1641 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 44%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   226,669   54%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   196,401   46%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
329 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 64%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   25,390   54%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   21,346   46%

Treasurer - General
1627 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 44%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ball, Allison   GOP   241,960   59%
Nelson, Rick   Dem   168,427   41%

Poor Conway

[Free Bird]

AoSHQ calls it for Bevin

[YaBoyNY]

Congratulations Governor-elect Matt Bevin. Wow. I didn't think he'd win.

Let's be cautious. This is still close.

No its not.

yeah, 3 points isn't close

TIL on atlas

[ElectionsGuy]

Damn!!! The AP has got to call this soon too.

Looks like the next thing to watch is Edelen's race. His Senate campaign against Paul won't even be hypothetical until he wins.

[RogueBeaver]

Wasserman also calls it for Bevin. Woot. Now onto downballot.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

HAHA, Yes. As I said, no care for the results, but I bought 60 shares of Bevin months ago. This was always a 50-50 race so it being priced at 30 cents made literally no sense. Optimistic liberals are foolhardy with money, part 2 (part 1 was the UK election where I also made out on value for a tossup bet)

[cinyc]

Kenton County flipped to Bevin on AoS.  Not in the AP numbers yet, but it should be coming.

[ElectionsGuy]

The rest of Jefferson might move Conway up 2-3 points, but that's it. That's all he's got. He's toast. I'm confident Bevin is the next governor.

Auditor is 50-50!

[Holmes]

Bevin will probably be another Brownback that hangs on at re-election thanks to it being in an off-year.

[RI]

Looks like Conway's matching his polling but all the undecideds went Bevin. Not surprised given how greatly Grimes underperformed last year.

[jaichind]

 Grimes looks like will make it, barely.

[Mr. Illini]

Bevin opening it up and Conway has little to lean on elsewhere.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Conway's matching his polling but all the undecideds went Bevin. Not surprised given how greatly Grimes underperformed last year.

SurveyUSA should really stop polling Kentucky. In fact, so should everyone else.

[DrScholl]

Looks like Bevin is the next new idol on this boards. Move over Kasich.

[Phony Moderate]

HAHA, Yes. As I said, no care for the results, but I bought 60 shares of Bevin months ago. This was always a 50-50 race so it being priced at 30 cents made literally no sense. Optimistic liberals are foolhardy with money, part 2 (part 1 was the UK election where I also made out on value for a tossup bet)

Most 'liberals' supported the Tories here.

[Gass3268]

How was the polling so wrong?

[FDRfan1985]

What does a Bevin win mean for social programs like Food Stamps?

[Mr. Illini]

Jefferson now almost 80% in and Conway still down 5. This thing is over.

Tough days to be a Democrat.

[Pandaguineapig]

Looks like Conway's matching his polling but all the undecideds went Bevin. Not surprised given how greatly Grimes underperformed last year.

SurveyUSA should really stop polling Kentucky. In fact, so should everyone else.

Truth

[cinyc]

Looks like Conway's matching his polling but all the undecideds went Bevin. Not surprised given how greatly Grimes underperformed last year.

I'm only eyeballing the early votes from memory (i.e. when 0% was reporting but votes were shown), but I think Bevin performed better in the election day vote than the early vote so far.

[ElectionsGuy]

We didn't learn. There needs to a polling revolution!

[kansasdemocrat]

LOL polling.

RIP Conway

RIP Jim Hood

[Skye]

With 77.5% in Jefferson, Conway has a 16 point lead there.

Still 51-45 for Bevin statewide. Can't see Conway winning now.

[RI]

Conway lost Nelson County. lol