Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bevin lead at over 30k now.

Agriculture Commissioner - General
2075 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 56%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Quarles, Ryan   GOP   311,967   59%
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   218,505   41%

Attorney General - General
2082 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 56%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   279,499   51%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   265,105   49%

Auditor - General
2081 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 56%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   267,193   50%
Harmon, Mike   GOP   266,954   50%

Governor - General
2084 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 56%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bevin, Matt   GOP   281,977   51%
Conway, Jack   Dem   250,688   45%
Curtis, Drew   Ind   21,528   4%

Secretary of State - General
2084 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 56%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   289,376   53%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   258,873   47%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
342 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 67%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   26,460   54%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   22,701   46%

Treasurer - General
2075 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 56%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Ball, Allison   GOP   320,612   60%
Nelson, Rick   Dem   213,139   40%

[user12345]

RIP sanity in Kentucky.

[Nyvin]

Geez...even the Auditor race is neck and neck!

Times are tough on state level Dems

[ElectionsGuy]

Harmon has taken the lead (by 500 votes) over Edelen!

Grimes is 52-48 and Beshear is 51-49 with their Republican opponents.

[CountyTy90]

Live election coverage

[Phony Moderate]

Stop bashing the pollsters so much anyway. Off-year elections are as tricky to poll as special/by-elections are.

[Figueira]

Bevin will probably be another Brownback that hangs on at re-election thanks to it being in an off-year.

At least he'll lose to Patrick Murphy in the 2028 Presidential race.

[Mr. Reactionary]

What does a Bevin win mean for social programs like Food Stamps?

Foodstamps are  federal.

[Cryptic]

Well, looks like Conway's done.

Still holding out hope for Beshear, Grimes, and Edelen.

[IceSpear]

How was the polling so wrong?

Are you really surprised? Kentucky polls underestimating Republicans has to be the most consistent state-level polling failure in the past decade.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Finally some calls:

Agriculture Commissioner - General
2113 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 57%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   Quarles, Ryan   GOP   317,472   59% WINNER
Lawson Spann, Jean-Marie   Dem   221,347   41%

Attorney General - General
2113 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 57%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Beshear, Andy   Dem   282,234   51%
Westerfield, Whitney   GOP   268,724   49%

Auditor - General
2113 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 57%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Harmon, Mike   GOP   270,657   50%
Edelen, Adam (i)   Dem   270,153   50%

Governor - General
2152 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 58%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bevin, Matt   GOP   296,312   51%
Conway, Jack   Dem   259,236   45%
Curtis, Drew   Ind   22,387   4%

Secretary of State - General
2152 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 58%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Grimes, Alison Lundergan (i)   Dem   299,673   52%
Knipper, Stephen   GOP   272,164   48%

Supreme Court - District 7 - General
354 of 514 Precincts Reporting - 69%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Wright, Sam   NP   27,474   53%
Stumbo, Janet   NP   24,077   47%

Treasurer - General
2113 of 3697 Precincts Reporting - 57%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
   Ball, Allison   GOP   326,137   60% WINNER
Nelson, Rick   Dem   216,049   40%

[Maxwell]

The fact that Bevin ran such a disastrous campaign and Conway didn't wrap it up because of that, shows that Democrats should never run Jack Conway for anything ever again. Every time I heard him speak or see him, it made me think of a cardboard cut out of a politician, and every position he took was just craven.

And Bevin may just carry Mike Harmon with him and end Adam Edelen's career. Wow. Grimes isn't even winning by much, and from what I've heard, Steve Knipper was basically a joke candidate.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How was the polling so wrong?

The real question is: How was the "election" so wrong?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What does a Bevin win mean for social programs like Food Stamps?

He'll abolish them.

[Hydera]

Bevin might want to think Kim Davis for causing evangelicals who weren't planning to vote this year, to turn out this election.

[Maxwell]

How was the polling so wrong?

The real question is: How was the "election" so wrong?

As if it wasn't obvious before, time to ignore your analysis of Kentucky elections forever.

[DrScholl]

What does a Bevin win mean for social programs like Food Stamps?

He'll abolish them.

If that happens, then it will be a case of voters getting what they vote for. He'll still blame Obama for it, though.

[IceSpear]

The fact that Bevin ran such a disastrous campaign and Conway didn't wrap it up because of that, shows that Democrats should never run Jack Conway for anything ever again. Every time I heard him speak or see him, it made me think of a cardboard cut out of a politician, and every position he took was just craven.

And Bevin may just carry Mike Harmon with him and end Adam Edelen's career. Wow. Grimes isn't even winning by much, and from what I've heard, Steve Knipper was basically a joke candidate.

I think it shows that Kentucky pipe dreams should be ended. No guys, Paul or whoever is the Republican nominee is not in the slightest bit vulnerable. No, Hillary is not going to win it or even come within single digits. MAYBE you can knock off Bevin in 2019 if he's a complete unmitigated disaster, but even then he'll probably still survive.

It's over. Grimes can turn off the lights and lock the door on her way out. Hopefully a more Democratic state will take her as a refugee.

[ElectionsGuy]

So that means Republicans have already picked up one statewide office. I wouldn't be surprised if even Grimes loses by the end of the night. Incredible.

[Mr. Illini]

I never want to hear Rockefeller GOP say that Dems win on the state level in Kentucky ever again

[Skye]

How was the polling so wrong?

The real question is: How was the "election" so wrong?

As if it wasn't obvious before, time to ignore your analysis of Kentucky elections forever.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Congratulations, Governor Bevin!!  I look forward to seeing what you can do in our neighbors to the north!

[Thomas D]

Why is that little dot to the west part of Fulton County?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

JIM HOOD lost??

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

JIM HOOD lost??

No. Polls in MS aren't even closed yet.