Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[bobloblaw]

I guess Vcx Popel poll which showed a tie, was somewhat accurate, Conway's momentum had stalled over weekend.

Elections don't shift 8 points in two days in the absence of major scandal or huge success. The polls are bad at predicting Kentucky.

Or they are biased to the left.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2014 showed that too. Dems were leading until final weekend, and lost their momentum and lost. Conway clearly lost his over weekend.

[bobloblaw]

2014 showed that too. Dems were leading until final weekend, and lost their momentum and lost. Conway clearly lost his over weekend.

Dems in 2014 were never leading and were never leading in KY. The polls were wrong in KY as usual. The Bluegrass poll isnt worth squat.

[bobloblaw]

I can't believe Steve's kid might lose to so some no-name with a J.D. from Southern Illinois.

SIU has a good law school. They beat Harvard one year in moot court.

[Figueira]

"@joesonka: Democratic Sen. Ray Jones on KET saying that Kentucky Democrats don't criticize Barack Obama enough."

This is a glorious march towards extinction.

Maybe Democrats should invest more in their state parties instead of patting themselves on the back for an Electoral College advantage and openly ridiculing the lifestyles of huge segments of the populations.  Despite calls that the RNC has shifted way right, it's perfectly comfortable running socially liberal candidates in places like MA and IL; I think most Dems feel they're "past" needing social conservatives, and that's just wrong if they want to keep governors' mansions and win back legislatures.

What are you talking about? Conway pandered to the right virtually every step of the way.

I seriously hope the people on this board don't keep buying into the delusion of "If we just transported a genuine liberal democrat to run then he'd obviously Win!!!/Do much better!!!


Yes the moderate candidate lost, but not as much had the dems just ran a generic progressive.

Yeah, but there are certain issues where you should pander to the right to win Kentucky, and certain issues where you shouldn't.

[Bacon King]

So ugly.

hey guys just for some perspective here's how the gubernatorial map looked on the day Obama took office

[Fuzzy Bear]

Kentucky Democrats need to keep moving. They cede the state to the GOP, that shows that Democrats will have a hard time with white voters FOREVER.

That tends to happen when the national Dem party embraces BLM

What he said.

To the average citizen, BLM is about folks who want the right to resist lawful arrest when being a suspect in a crime.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will likely win in La, in part, because of high concentration of black voters in New Orlean, but sweeping both elections were hard to do anyways.

[Bacon King]

Kentucky Democrats need to keep moving. They cede the state to the GOP, that shows that Democrats will have a hard time with white voters FOREVER.

That tends to happen when the national Dem party embraces BLM

What he said.

To the average citizen, BLM is about folks who want the right to resist lawful arrest when being a suspect in a crime.

To the average citizen BLM is literally a meaningless phrase because they don't follow current events that closely - and if they do they won't remember minutiae like which politicians support it or not. If you have a family to feed you aren't going to give a f[Inks] one way or the other 

[Rockefeller GOP]

So ugly.

Is the Democratic Party worth it? Evidence points no.

It's not as terrible as it might appear at first glance. WI, MI, NJ, and ME will probably flip in the next cycle; MD, MA, and IL will be solid D seats once their incumbents retire, and the Dems will have a decent shot in the next election besides. The map is as lopsided as it is right now because the GOP had a really good year in 2014, when most of those governorships were up for election.

No.

Yes? Are you insinuating that with a generic Dem vs a generic Rep, MA would be anything but solid D?

Lmao.

MA certainly doesn't mind its GOP governors, same as much of New England.

[Rockefeller GOP]

If it helps the Democrats here any, the new mayor of Indianapolis is a Democrat, Joe Hogsett.

Yeah,  the Democrats are doing really well in the NJ legislature as well.

It really seems like Country = Republicans and Cities = Democrats is becoming all too true across the country.

Indian reservations are a pretty big exception, as well as right along the Mexican border and the Black Belt, but otherwise, yes.

Vermont too

And NH and WI, where the GOP strength/margin when they win comes from the suburbs.

[Illiniwek]

So ugly.

hey guys just for some perspective here's how the gubernatorial map looked on the day Obama took office

My gosh that is depressing.

[Figueira]

So ugly.

Is the Democratic Party worth it? Evidence points no.

It's not as terrible as it might appear at first glance. WI, MI, NJ, and ME will probably flip in the next cycle; MD, MA, and IL will be solid D seats once their incumbents retire, and the Dems will have a decent shot in the next election besides. The map is as lopsided as it is right now because the GOP had a really good year in 2014, when most of those governorships were up for election.

No.

Yes? Are you insinuating that with a generic Dem vs a generic Rep, MA would be anything but solid D?

Lmao.

Look at the recent list of governors, and see when each was elected. There's been one Democrat since Dukakis, and he was elected in a Democratic wave year.

I'm hardly a MAGOP hack, and I'm not one of those who says "Baker is 100% safe!!!!!" but it's equallyy wrong to say that MA is solid D on the gubernatorial level.

[Bacon King]

My gosh that is depressing.

Oh that's nothing- try comparing the House elections between 2008 to 2014!

First here's 2008. Map is from wikipedia so the colors are reversed.

Note Democratic wins in 3/4 of Mississippi, 3/4 of Arkansas, 3/7 of Alabama, 6/13 of Georgia, every district in New England, and all but three in New York. Total spread is 257 D vs 178 R (click map to embiggen)




And this is 2014, posted without comment. Spread is 247 R - 188 D (and again, click map to embiggen)

[Miles]

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Good lord! People actually voted Democratic in places where people actually LIVE!!!

[Skye]

Good lord! People actually voted Democratic in places where people actually LIVE!!!

Huh?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Good lord! People actually voted Democratic in places where people actually LIVE!!!

Huh?

Well they did. Conway won the northern half of Campbell County.

[SATW]

Good lord! People actually voted Democratic in places where people actually LIVE!!!

lol i love progressive tears

[Bacon King]

GOVERNOR
BEVIN 52.5% CONWAY 43.8% CURTIS 3.7%

SECRETARY OF STATE
GRIMES 51.2% KNIPPER 48.8%

ATTORNEY GENERAL
BESHEAR 50.1% WESTERFIELD 49.9%

AUDITOR OF PUBLIC ACCOUNTS
HARMON 51.9% EDELIN 48.1%

STATE TREASURER
BALL 60.6% NELSON 39.4%

COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE
QUARLES 60.1% SPANN 39.9%

[Bacon King]

I got those maps from here so blame Grimes for the reversed colors not me

[Rockefeller GOP]

Good lord! People actually voted Democratic in places where people actually LIVE!!!

Huh?

Well they did. Conway won the northern half of Campbell County.

You've gone from a self-described rural populist who said Dems should stop forcing gun control and focus on kitchen table issues to someone who apparently scoffs at the rural voters in your state and tries to paint KY Dems as largely cosmopolitan (LOL!) in a number of years ... I smell a hack.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

You've gone from a self-described rural populist who said Dems should stop forcing gun control and focus on kitchen table issues to someone who apparently scoffs at the rural voters in your state and tries to paint KY Dems as largely cosmopolitan (LOL!) in a number of years ... I smell a hack.

The rural voters of 2015 aren't even the same people as the rural voters of 1976.

You're not gonna find many Cooter Davenports in the rural America of today. They've died off or moved to the cities.

[Skye]

Good lord! People actually voted Democratic in places where people actually LIVE!!!

Huh?

Well they did. Conway won the northern half of Campbell County.

...and he lost so badly in the rest of the county that Bevin carried it by double digits?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

...and he lost so badly in the rest of the county that Bevin carried it by double digits?

Yes, because the southern end is where the Taliban is.