Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread

[ElectionsGuy]

Another KY Democratic State Representative switches to the GOP. Democrats down to 50-46 in the chamber. If one more occurs the GOP has the chance to take the chamber in the special elections.

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2015/12/28/state-rep-jim-gooch-switches-gop/77975148/

Were there a lot of vacancies as of late?

[BigSkyBob]

Another KY Democratic State Representative switches to the GOP. Democrats down to 50-46 in the chamber. If one more occurs the GOP has the chance to take the chamber in the special elections.

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2015/12/28/state-rep-jim-gooch-switches-gop/77975148/

No, it is 50-48. The next switch makes it very interesting. Two Republican members are scheduled to resign on the 4th, but, they have yet to resign. What is to say they can't delay their swearing in to statewide office for a couple of days? At 49-49, an ambitious Democrat more acceptable to the Bevins could be seated 50-48. The next day the two Republicans could resign, yet the Democrats could only muster a 48-48 tie to depose the duly elected Speaker. With two more switches, the Republicans could appoint one of their own, and survive a 48-48 vote to depose.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

There is actually some speculation that maybe one or two Republican lawmakers might flip to the Democrats because the GOP has gotten so extreme. But actually if they were going to flip, they probably would have done it by now.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

These party swappers are dumb as hell. They need to become independents and make their alliegence up to the highest bidder - that's the way to get maximum pork for their districts.

[smoltchanov]

These party swappers are dumb as hell. They need to become independents and make their alliegence up to the highest bidder - that's the way to get maximum pork for their districts.

That could work, but only until next election. It's difficult to be elected as Indie, so one would have to choose then...

[BigSkyBob]

These party swappers are dumb as hell. They need to become independents and make their alliegence up to the highest bidder - that's the way to get maximum pork for their districts.

Which is merely a backhanded way of stating that they chose principle over expediency in switching to the Republican party.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

These party swappers are dumb as hell. They need to become independents and make their alliegence up to the highest bidder - that's the way to get maximum pork for their districts.

Which is merely a backhanded way of stating that they chose principle over expediency in switching to the Republican party.

If you think these gloryhunters are doing so out of "principle", I've got a great beachfront property in Kentucky I'd like to sell you.

These party swappers are dumb as hell. They need to become independents and make their alliegence up to the highest bidder - that's the way to get maximum pork for their districts.

That could work, but only until next election. It's difficult to be elected as Indie, so one would have to choose then...

Not if you play your cards right.

[BigSkyBob]

These party swappers are dumb as hell. They need to become independents and make their alliegence up to the highest bidder - that's the way to get maximum pork for their districts.

Which is merely a backhanded way of stating that they chose principle over expediency in switching to the Republican party.

If you think these gloryhunters are doing so out of "principle", I've got a great beachfront property in Kentucky I'd like to sell you.

Your problem is that I simply said no such thing. You did.

[Frodo]

A parting message from the outgoing Auditor (and one-time Senate hopeful) Adam Edelen to the Kentucky Democratic Party:

Get used to being in the minority.  

Or words to that effect.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

A parting message from the outgoing Auditor (and one-time Senate hopeful) Adam Edelen to the Kentucky Democratic Party:

Get used to being in the minority.  

Or words to that effect.

The Democrats need to run on a progressive platform.

[Frodo]

Once Republicans get full control over redistricting in Kentucky in time for the 2020 census, how low will Democrats go in the legislature once all is said and done? Should we be looking at their counterparts in Tennessee as a hint of their bleak future?  

Here is where Kentucky Democrats currently stand:

Kentucky House:

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 46
vacancies: 4

Kentucky Senate:

Democrats: 11
Republicans: 27

And here is a peek at the Tennessee legislature:

Tennessee House:

Democrats: 26
Republicans: 73

Tennessee Senate:

Democrats: 5
Republicans: 28

Is Tennessee the future of the Kentucky Democratic Party? 

[smoltchanov]

A parting message from the outgoing Auditor (and one-time Senate hopeful) Adam Edelen to the Kentucky Democratic Party:

Get used to being in the minority.  

Or words to that effect.

The Democrats need to run on a progressive platform.

In THAT case they will SURELY be in minority. And - for a very LONG time... Republicans will not even have to sweat - Democrats will do their work for them...

[smoltchanov]

Is Tennessee the future of the Kentucky Democratic Party? 

In short - yes. But i expect slightly better numbers in Kentucky then in Tennessee. Somewhere about 29-9 in Senate and 65-35 - in House (both - Republican, of course) 10 years from now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

A parting message from the outgoing Auditor (and one-time Senate hopeful) Adam Edelen to the Kentucky Democratic Party:

Get used to being in the minority.  

Or words to that effect.

The Democrats need to run on a progressive platform.

In THAT case they will SURELY be in minority. And - for a very LONG time...

Who knows. The last 2 Democratic Senators from Idaho were solid liberals. Like the kind that Vermont liberals would be happy with.

[smoltchanov]

A parting message from the outgoing Auditor (and one-time Senate hopeful) Adam Edelen to the Kentucky Democratic Party:

Get used to being in the minority.  

Or words to that effect.

The Democrats need to run on a progressive platform.

In THAT case they will SURELY be in minority. And - for a very LONG time...

Who knows. The last 2 Democratic Senators from Idaho were solid liberals. Like the kind that Vermont liberals would be happy with.

Remind me a name of Democratic Senator from Idaho since 1980. And chances for next such Senator... If you agree to wait THAT long - fine, but i am over 50, and simply don't have so much time..

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How come none of these places in the South except Louisiana have a John Bel Edwards-style candidate who can win in a landslide?

Not like he was that liberal, but he's still much more liberal than the Tea Party.

[smoltchanov]

How come none of these places in the South except Louisiana have a John Bel Edwards-style candidate who can win in a landslide?

Not like he was that liberal, but he's still much more liberal than the Tea Party.

For that you need two things:

1. Rather solid social conservative (pro-gun, pro-life and so on, like JBE himself) as Democratic candidate

2. David Vitter or equally saddled with numerous problems Republican candidate

How frequently such situation will happen? I think JBE case may remain a unique for a long time, and he himself may have problems against "more normal" Republican candidate in 2019. And, BTW, because of mass exodus of white Democratic state legislators in Louisiana in 2019 (term limits) Republicans may get a supermajority in legislature then too...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why would a party get more popular as it gets more extreme, especially in a state known for electing moderates 50 years ago?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

2. David Vitter or equally saddled with numerous problems Republican candidate

Also, almost every major Republican in the South is just as bad as Vitter or Jindal. I'd say the average person in some of these other states is less conservative than in Louisiana, so you'd think the GOP would be easier to beat elsewhere.

The Kentucky GOP is beatable if their scandals are exposed. The Republican executive of a Republican county was defeated by 3-to-1 in 2014 because of a scandal.

[smoltchanov]

Why would a party get more popular as it gets more extreme, especially in a state known for electing moderates 50 years ago?

That's exactly the question i would like to ask a Kentucky Democrats. Successfull Democratic politicains from this state were usually loyal, but politically distinct (usually - of moderate type) from national leadership, which becomes more and more liberal (up to extreme in some cases) with every passing year. Why would Kentucky Democrats be more popular in their state by imitating that??

[smoltchanov]

2. David Vitter or equally saddled with numerous problems Republican candidate

Also, almost every major Republican in the South is just as bad as Vitter or Jindal. I'd say the average person in some of these other states is less conservative than in Louisiana, so you'd think the GOP would be easier to beat elsewhere.

The Kentucky GOP is beatable if their scandals are exposed. The Republican executive of a Republican county was defeated by 3-to-1 in 2014 because of a scandal.

The problem with Vitter wasn't his conservatism (Louisiana is a VERY conservative state, especially on social issues), but enormous personal scandals, which were deftly exploited by JBE, Against non-scandalous (but still generally conservative) Republican like Angelle or Dardenne he would have almost zero chances. Richard Shelby is very popular in Alabama, and Trent Lott was popular in Mississippi, despite being very conservative. And i can name dozens and dozens other names of very conservative politicians with extremely successfull career for decades representing South. South is a generally conservative region, but it doesn't like an unappealing scandals and it's perpetrators...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, these conservative politicians are much more conservative than the average person in their state. The average Kentuckian supports Medicaid expansion and a higher minimum wage, and opposes "right-to-work." Matt Bevin is against Kentuckians on all these issues.

But how many states have major politicians who are more liberal than the average person?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, Dardenne would have beaten Edwards 60-40. Angelle vs. Edwards would have been close, Angelle was scandal-free but portrayed himself as MORE conservative than Vitter (!) during the jungle. Maybe 52-48 Angelle or thereabouts.

[smoltchanov]

Also, these conservative politicians are much more conservative than the average person in their state. The average Kentuckian supports Medicaid expansion and a higher minimum wage, and opposes "right-to-work." Matt Bevin is against Kentuckians on all these issues.

But how many states have major politicians who are more liberal than the average person?

Substantial number. A lot of people in Maine are conservative, but I can't remember a really conservative Seanator from Maine (even Republican, and no, Collins is NOT a conservative) for a long time.... Even in Massachusetts and Vermont there are lot of conservatives, but no conservative Senator or Governor (even Romney was forced to masquerade as moderate to get elected) for decades...

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, Dardenne would have beaten Edwards 60-40. Angelle vs. Edwards would have been close, Angelle was scandal-free but portrayed himself as MORE conservative than Vitter (!) during the jungle. Maybe 52-48 Angelle or thereabouts.

I would say - more loyal to Jindal. And yes - i agree with him being narrow favorite against JBE.