Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread (user search)
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  Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Kentucky 2015 - Predictions and Results Thread  (Read 52783 times)
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« on: November 01, 2015, 11:40:29 AM »
Conway +5 just like every poll says.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2015, 11:52:07 AM »

Did you see the poll that had Grimes +13?
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2015, 06:26:04 PM »
These very early results indicate Conway probably will win by about 5%. But it's way too early.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2015, 06:43:01 PM »

Bevin has to win the region by more than that.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2015, 06:45:20 PM »
Pike County is 100% in, and Conway won the county by 12%.

I'm very surprised by this.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2015, 06:45:54 PM »
Quote from: 84285 on November 03, 2015, 06:45:14 PM
Pike County is now 100% in, going for Conway 54.1-42. Good news?

Extremely good news.

Maybe Conway's Pike County organization was just unusually good.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2015, 06:50:04 PM »
The Pike County thing was apparently a misprint, but now Owen County is all in, and Conway won it by 5%. I thought Bevin would win Owen.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2015, 06:53:23 PM »
Quote from: 84285 on November 03, 2015, 06:52:24 PM
Quote from: mollybecky on November 03, 2015, 06:51:18 PM
Pike County went 74% for Romney in 2012.  It's comparing apples to oranges but still...

Speaking of which, what's the best comparison for this race? I've been comparing it to the 2011 gubernatorial election.

There's really nothing reliable to compare it to, since 2011 was such a blowout, and had a stronger independent candidate.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2015, 06:55:11 PM »
Conway leading Kenton County by 17%? If anything's a misprint, it's that.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2015, 07:10:12 PM »
A big batch of votes just came in from Boone County, so it's out of the way now.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2015, 07:27:01 PM »
So Conway is doing better in Campbell County than statewide???
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2015, 07:49:39 PM »

The real question is: How was the "election" so wrong?
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2015, 07:50:07 PM »
Quote from: FDRfan1985 on November 03, 2015, 07:42:46 PM
What does a Bevin win mean for social programs like Food Stamps?

He'll abolish them.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2015, 07:55:39 PM »
JIM HOOD lost?Huh?
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2015, 08:19:12 PM »
Quote from: FDRfan1985 on November 03, 2015, 08:17:03 PM
My home state gets what it deserved. The next 4 years should be fun.  

This.

I met with local progressives after last year's "election", had dinner with them, and they promised action. But there was no follow-through. Not one blasted bit.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2015, 09:12:20 PM »
Also, it appears as if Conway's best county was Franklin County, of all places.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2015, 10:50:17 PM »
Quote from: Thinking Crumpets Crumpet on November 03, 2015, 10:46:43 PM
The thing is, if polls had showed Bevin leading by high single digits, it would hardly have been a story at all. Democrats don't have any reason to feel bad about losing the Kentucky Governorship as long as we still have control over part of the Legislature.

How long do you think that's gonna last at this rate?

These days, progressive power is almost exclusively confined to central cities.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2015, 12:32:43 PM »

Good lord! People actually voted Democratic in places where people actually LIVE!!!
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2015, 12:47:09 PM »

Well they did. Conway won the northern half of Campbell County.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2015, 01:08:37 PM »
Quote from: Rockefeller GOP on November 04, 2015, 01:05:59 PM
You've gone from a self-described rural populist who said Dems should stop forcing gun control and focus on kitchen table issues to someone who apparently scoffs at the rural voters in your state and tries to paint KY Dems as largely cosmopolitan (LOL!) in a number of years ... I smell a hack.

The rural voters of 2015 aren't even the same people as the rural voters of 1976.

You're not gonna find many Cooter Davenports in the rural America of today. They've died off or moved to the cities.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2015, 01:34:14 PM »
Quote from: yeah_93 on November 04, 2015, 01:29:50 PM
...and he lost so badly in the rest of the county that Bevin carried it by double digits?

Yes, because the southern end is where the Taliban is.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2015, 01:49:57 PM »
Someone on Facebook said that 17 Democratic members of the Kentucky House are switching to the GOP. If true, it would be dumb on their part, after the way the Republicans negatively campaigned against them.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2015, 09:25:38 PM »
Quote from: Neoliberal Corporatist Supporting Progressive Socialist on November 04, 2015, 09:21:47 PM
One bright spot for Democrats in Kentucky: Rowan County, home of the notorious bigot Kim Davis, was won by Jack Conway. I guess Kim's party switch really didn't have an effect there Smiley

I can't understand why Conway didn't win Rowan County by more.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2015, 09:39:49 PM »
Quote from: Badger on November 04, 2015, 09:35:57 PM
And got demolished in the rest of the county. So what?

Why are rural areas allowed to decide entire elections for urban areas?
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,958


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92
« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2015, 09:53:34 AM »
Quote from: Hydera on November 05, 2015, 06:50:26 AM
So what should we call the now rump Kentucky democratic base?  The Licking River belt?

I call it Real Kentucky.
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