Primary ballot access megathread

[Mr. Morden]

All of the Democratic candidates made it on the ballot in Kentucky:

http://apps.sos.ky.gov/elections/candidatefilings/statewide/default.aspx?id=1

Today was also the Wisconsin deadline, wasn't it?  Anyone know if everyone made it there?

[Broken System]

All of the Democratic candidates made it on the ballot in Kentucky:

http://apps.sos.ky.gov/elections/candidatefilings/statewide/default.aspx?id=1

Today was also the Wisconsin deadline, wasn't it?  Anyone know if everyone made it there?

Nice Kentucky ballot. De La Fuente again, and some guy named Zutler who already picked out a VP.

[Broken System]

All of the Democratic candidates made it on the ballot in Kentucky:

http://apps.sos.ky.gov/elections/candidatefilings/statewide/default.aspx?id=1

Today was also the Wisconsin deadline, wasn't it?  Anyone know if everyone made it there?

A January 6th article said all major candidates (even Gilmore) were selected by the committee to be on the ballot. The only question is if any other candidates got enough petitions, like De La Fuente.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Can someone simplify for me if they don't mind in a paragraph or two how delegates are distributed in Iowa and NH. Is it based on counties? What place you come in? ect.

[This account no longer in use.]

Can someone simplify for me if they don't mind in a paragraph or two how delegates are distributed in Iowa and NH. Is it based on counties? What place you come in? ect.

I believe it is based on counties on the Democratic side, votes on the Republican side.

[Erc]

Can someone simplify for me if they don't mind in a paragraph or two how delegates are distributed in Iowa and NH. Is it based on counties? What place you come in? ect.

I've got some explanations in my thread, but a quick explanation:

Iowa - R

People show up to the caucuses, they vote in a straw poll; the results of this straw poll are reported to the media.  Delegates are doled out proportional to the vote share each candidate got, so if Trump gets a third of the vote, he'll get roughly a third of the delegates, up to rounding.  There's essentially no cutoff, so anyone placing above 2% or so is likely to get a delegate out of the state.

Iowa - D

Now, this is a weird one.  At the caucuses, people elect delegates to County Conventions, to be held later in the month.  At those conventions, they elect delegates to Congressional District and State Conventions, and it's only that third stage that actually chooses the delegates to the National Conventions.  At each stage, the number of delegates each candidate is given is proportional to the vote share each candidate got, with a 15% threshold (i.e. this means O'Malley, barring a weird late surge, is cut out; his voters will get a chance to caucus for someone else if they like).  We won't technically know the delegate counts until June, but we should have a good estimate by the morning after the caucuses.

Due to the complicated process (and the fact that there isn't a straw poll), what's actually reported to the media is a bit odd.  Basically, it's an official estimate (by the Iowa Democratic Party) of the number of delegates each candidate would be entitled to at the State Convention, based on the results.  Essentially, think of it as an Electoral College-like system.  Each county has a certain number of "electoral votes", based on its population and past support for Democratic candidates. Note that this means an abnormally high turnout in one county won't actually help the winning candidate there as much as you'd expect.  The "electoral vote" of each county doled out (roughly) proportionally to the vote share each candidate got in the county, except that candidates routinely placing below 15% in many precincts (i.e. O'Malley) are likely to be wiped out entirely.  Since this is basically a two-man race, the number of delegates each candidate is likely to receive to the National Convention is going to be essentially proportional to the "vote" share the media will report.

New Hampshire - R

Delegates are awarded proportional to vote share among all candidates who get 10% or more of the vote.  Any delegates not assigned by this method (as is likely to happen if there are many candidates who get less than 10% of the vote, as seems probable this year) are assigned to the overall winner.  So the winner in New Hampshire is likely to get a nice bonus of a few delegates.

In 2012, for example, Gingrich and Santorum both placed just under 10% in New Hampshire, so their votes effectively (for the purposes of delegate distribution) counted for Romney, who won 58% of the delegates on a 39% vote share.

New Hampshire - D

Delegates are awarded proportionally among candidates receiving 15% or more of the vote in the primary.

I'm glossing over the fact that on the Democratic side, delegates are awarded both on the basis of Congressional District and At-Large (in fact, 2 categories of At-Large, for arcane reasons)--this will effectively show up as weird rounding effects in the overall result, though these can really add up over the long term.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Any info on downballot contests?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Any info on downballot contests?

Those are held on different dates.

[Mr. Morden]

All the candidates except Gilmore made it onto the Maryland ballot:

http://ballot-access.org/2016/02/03/sixteen-candidates-likely-to-be-on-maryland-major-party-presidential-primary-ballots/

[Mr. Morden]

All the candidates except Gilmore made it onto the Indiana ballot:

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/02/05/indianas-presidential-ballot-crowded-but-how-long/79892704/

I was looking up New York as well.  On this page:

http://www.elections.ny.gov

they’ve got the candidate filings for Clinton and Sanders, but didn’t see the candidate filings for the Republicans.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

So far Bernie and Jeb! are the only two making it to the RI ballots

sos.ri.gov

2/11 Update
Hillary and Trump are now in the ballots ... and somehow ROCKY DE LA FUENTE got over a 1000 votes and also qualified

[cinyc]

All the candidates except Gilmore made it onto the Indiana ballot:

http://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2016/02/05/indianas-presidential-ballot-crowded-but-how-long/79892704/

I was looking up New York as well.  On this page:

http://www.elections.ny.gov

they’ve got the candidate filings for Clinton and Sanders, but didn’t see the candidate filings for the Republicans.

Republicans in New York have until February 16 to get on the ballot, and don't necessarily have the same petition requirements as the Democrats.  To get on the ballot, a Republican has to be matching funds eligible or "nationally known".  If not, he or she must file petitions.  The petitions had to be in by February 4, but the certifications of matching fund eligibility or being nationally known need not be in until February 16.  Apparently, no Republicans bothered to file petitions.

Democrats must file petitions for themselves and their delegates, and those petitions were due February 4.  If somebody contested the onerous petition requirements on the Democratic side, it would probably be overturned by a court, like the old Republican petition requirements were.  But apparently, nobody contested them.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, here's the deal my friends.  I initially stickied this thread because I remembered all of the ridiculous mishaps with ballot access from multiple candidates back in 2012.  Remember when Paul and Romney were the only candidates to make it onto the Virginia ballot?  Good times.

With the large number of joke candidates running on a shoestring this time, I assumed we'd have similar mishaps.  However, the campaigns largely proved to be more on top of things than I would have predicted.  It was really just Gilmore and Pataki who kept missing deadlines, and Pataki's out of the race now.  For that matter, second tier candidates who sometimes messed up, like O'Malley and Huckabee, are out of the race now too.  The only candidate left who ever fails to make it onto these ballots is Gilmore.  With only, what?  17 or 18 ballot deadlines left (mostly late primaries that may well happen after both nominations are decided)?  Do we want to bother keeping this thread stickied just so that we can more easily offer a way to laugh some more at Gilmore?

If no one violently objects, I'll unsticky this thread some time later today / tomorrow.

[PaperKooper]

I enjoy seeing which ballots Rocky de la Fuente can get on. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I enjoy seeing which ballots Rocky de la Fuente can get on. 

[Mr. Morden]

OK, well, you guys are welcome to continue to track Rocky.  This thread is still here, and it's not going to be locked.  But it doesn't really merit being stickied anymore, IMHO, so I'm setting it free...

[Mr. Morden]

Willie Wilson's name was left off of the Mississippi primary ballot by mistake, and now he's asking the state supreme court to order a reprinting of the ballots:

http://ballot-access.org/2016/02/11/willie-wilson-left-off-mississippi-democratic-party-by-mistake-asks-state-supreme-court-to-order-reprint-of-ballots/

[PaperKooper]

Everyone qualified in Delaware, including de la Fuente. 

[Mr. Morden]

*bump*

The validity of the signatures gathered to put both Kasich and Cruz on the ballot in Pennsylvania is being challenged in court:

http://www.phillyvoice.com/penn-student-petitions-strike-john-kasich-pennsylvania-republican-primary/

Both challenges will be heard in court this week.

[cinyc]

Donald Trump, John Kasich, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz are on the New York Republican ballot.  All other dropped-out candidates who qualified for the ballot got their name off of it.  I'm not sure why Carson didn't.

On the Democratic side, just Clinton and Sanders made the ballot. Rocky de la Fuente and Christin Griskie didn't get enough signatures to get on the ballot.