Primary ballot access megathread

[jimrtex]

The filing deadline is Friday, November 6.

Alabama presidential candidates

Bush, Carson, Fiorina, Graham.

Alabama Delegate candidates.

4 candidates with a large number of delegate candidates:

Rubio (28)
Carson (26)
Cruz (23)
Trump (20)

Two with half as many:

Bush (14)
Fiorina (13)

Four with token amount:

Kasich (4)
Huckabee (2)
Paul (1)
Santorum (1)

Five with none:

Christie, Gilmore, Graham, Jindal, and Pataki.

[IceSpear]

There's still time for Biden to jump in!!11!!!

[JerryArkansas]

Besides here in Alabama, the first day to file in Arkansas was today.  All the candidates on both sides have til next Monday to file here.

[Lief 🗽]

Are the delegates elected separately from the "popular vote" in the primary? Or does the delegate breakdown have to correspond with the popular vote?

[JerryArkansas]

Are the delegates elected separately from the "popular vote" in the primary? Or does the delegate breakdown have to correspond with the popular vote?

Depends on the state, but in a lot, it is allotted by who wins a congressional district.  Only like 5 IIRC are WTA this time.  Others are using some variation of proportional allocation.

[The Mikado]

More delegate selections filtering in. Carson's up to almost a full slate.

[Mr. Morden]

Are the delegates elected separately from the "popular vote" in the primary? Or does the delegate breakdown have to correspond with the popular vote?

Depends on the state, but in a lot, it is allotted by who wins a congressional district.  Only like 5 IIRC are WTA this time.  Others are using some variation of proportional allocation.

Only a few states are statewide WTA, but several others are WTA by congressional district.  For example, California, which is of course the biggest delegate prize, allocates some delegates WTA by the statewide vote, and some WTA for each congressional district (with every district counting the same, so McCarthy’s district counts the same as Barbara Lee’s district, despite having many times more Republicans).

In the case of Alabama, here are the delegate allocation rules:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AL-R

26 delegates allocated “proportionally” by the statewide vote, and another 21 allocated by CD.  But the proportionality has a 20% cutoff.  It’s proportional for anyone who gets between 20 and 50% of the vote.  If anyone manages more than 50%, then they get all the delegates.  Likewise, for the CD delegates, each district gets three delegates.  If the winner gets 50% or more in the district, he gets all three delegates.  If only one candidate gets more than 20% in the district, he gets all three delegates.  But if multiple candidates get 20-50% and no one is above 50%, then the first place gets two delegates and second place gets one delegate.

[Figueira]

There's still time for Biden to jump in!!11!!!

There's still a 23.325238092% chance that Hillary doesn't run IMO.

[Lief 🗽]

But what happens if a candidate, for example, wins a percentage of the popular vote in Alabama that entitles them to 5 delegates but they only have 2 delegates?

[JerryArkansas]

But what happens if a candidate, for example, wins a percentage of the popular vote in Alabama that entitles them to 5 delegates but they only have 2 delegates?

Then they screwed.  Same thing almost happened to Santorum in Ohio last year.  If he had won the state, he wouldn't have gotten all of the delegates he would have been entitled to because he failed to give a full slate of delegates.

[Mr. Morden]

One of you people living in the US should volunteer to be a delegate for one of the longshot candidates.  You never know, maybe there's a congressional district somewhere where Jim Gilmore will break 20%.  He has to be ready with a delegate to fill that spot!

[jimrtex]

The filing deadline is Friday, November 6.

Cruz and Kasich has filed. News stories say that Huckabee was in Alabama on Thursday to file.

Alabama presidential candidates

Bush, Carson, Fiorina, Graham, Rubio, +Kasich, +Cruz

Alabama Delegate candidates.

4 candidates with a large number of delegate candidates:

Rubio (28) (40)
Carson (26) (39)
Cruz (23) (36)
Trump (20) (36)

Three with half as many:

Bush (14) (18)
Fiorina (13)
Paul (1) (14)

Four with token amount:

Kasich (4) (8 )
Huckabee (2) (4)
Santorum (1) (4)
Uncommitted (2)

Five with none:

Christie, Gilmore, Graham, Jindal, and Pataki.

Allocation Rules

There are 26 at-large delegate positions, and 3 from each of the 7 congressional districts.

A presidential candidate needs $10,000 and either 500 signatures statewide, or 50 in each of the seven congressional districts.

Delegate candidates pay $150 and are pledged to a particular candidate or uncommitted. If the presidential candidate does not file, a delegate candidate may switch to uncommitted, or withdraw and get a refund of his $150.

Delegates file by position number (26 at-large positions and 3 district positions).

A voter may vote for a presidential candidate and 29 delegate positions among those pledged to the same candidate. Cross-over delegate votes are not permitted (it is not clear what happens if a voter does do this. Logically, his delegate votes would be ignored; but conceivably the whole ballot could be voided.

Only contested positions appear on the ballot. Carson has quite a few such delegate contests, the others are more sparse. Delegates might be able to switch positions.

Allocation of delegates is based on the presidential vote, under a Winner Take Most system.

For the three delegates from each district:

A presidential candidate receives a majority of the vote, or is the only candidate over 20%, then he gets all three delegates. If two or more candidates receive over 20%, it is a 2-1 split. If no candidate receives over 20%, then the delegates are allocated on a pro rata basis, but with a severe rounding rule that could make it revert to 3-0.

Numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number, so that between 1/6 and 20% will get one, and less than 1/6 will get zero. If too few delegates are apportioned, then the extra go to the top candidate. If too many are apportioned, the extra are lopped off the trailing candidates.

For the at-large delegates, it is winner-take-all if a candidate receives a majority or is the only candidate above 20%. Otherwise it is allocated on a pro rata basis among those over 20%. If no candidate is over 20%, then it is pro rata among all candidates.

I can't see anyone failing to get 20%, so it will end up being sharply divided among one or two candidates.

[Mr. Morden]

I just saw this story:

http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2015/nov/03/7-file-presidential-bids-in-state-20151/

about Bush, Carson, Cruz, Huck, Kasich, Rubio, and Sanders all filing for the ballot in Arkansas on the first day.

How do you guys feel about me renaming this thread “primary ballot access megathread”, and stickying it, so we can keep track of who failed to get on each state ballot?

[Mr. Morden]

Today's the first day for filing in NH, and WMUR is live tweeting the event:

https://twitter.com/WMUR9

[RI]

So, when's Trump going to file for these things?

[Lyin' Steve]

So, when's Trump going to file for these things?

At the last minute, when he can soak the event for maximum media attention.

[Likely Voter]

So, when's Trump going to file for these things?

At the last minute, when he can soak the event for maximum media attention.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-omalley-file-hampshire-primary-ballot-34955570

[JonathanSwift]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2015/10/30/gop-candidates-revolt-attempt-to-seize-control-over-debates/

[JonathanSwift]

As of October 29th, Trump had ballot access in Kansas, Kentucky, Maine and Nevada.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-officially-qualifies-for-the-ballot-in-nevada-and-kentucky

[JonathanSwift]

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/press-releases/donald-j.-trump-officially-filed-to-be-on-the-ballot-in-new-hampshire

Trump has filed to appear on the ballot in New Hampshire.

[PPT Spiral]

With the deadline being tomorrow, these candidates are now on Alabama's ballot:

Bush
Carson
Cruz
Fiorina
Graham
Huckabee
Jindal
Kasich
Rubio
Trump

[Lief 🗽]

With the deadline being tomorrow, these candidates are now on Alabama's ballot:

Bush
Carson
Cruz
Fiorina
Graham
Huckabee
Jindal
Kasich
Rubio
Trump

RIP CHRISTIE, GILMORE, PATAKI, PAUL, SANTORUM

[Mr. Morden]

$10,000 filing fee for Alabama.  Will Gilmore be able to afford it?

[PPT Spiral]

$10,000 filing fee for Alabama.  Will Gilmore be able to afford it?

Will Pataki? He has even less cash on hand than Gilmore according to the last financial disclosures.

[Mr. Morden]

In seriousness, as I've said before, the ballot deadlines are when we might start to finally see some more dropouts from the GOP race.  We've got Alabama this Friday, and then what?  Arizona and Arkansas coming on Monday?  It's not that those are must wins for anyone, but a candidate should be getting on the ballot in enough states to get a majority of delegates.  If you're missing almost every ballot filing, then what's the point of continuing?

I mean, too early to say that anyone will be in that category, but if Gilmore or Pataki (or anyone else) doesn't get on the ballot in any of those states, then it may be a sign that their campaign is about to fold.