Primary ballot access megathread

[Likely Voter]

I would not be surprised if the networks add a requirement of meeting ballot access deadlines to their future debate criteria, just like they had criteria for FEC filings and early state staff and trips.  I don't remember if they did this in the past, but then again we didn't have as many broke campaigns hanging on pretending they are still running in years past.

[jimrtex]

The filing deadline in Alabama is 5 pm Friday, November 6 in (CST)

There are 47 delegates chosen based on the primary, 26 at-large and 3 from each congressional district. Delegates are chosen based on position. If a delegate candidate is elected to At-Large Position 11, and the candidate is allocated 10 at-large delegates, then that candidate is not a delegate, though he might be considered for an alternate position.

If a delegate position is contested, then it will appear on the ballot. Only voters who vote for a presidential candidate, may vote for the delegates pledged to the presidential candidate. If there is only a single candidate for a position, they do not appear on the ballot.

So under Donald Trump's name:

[ ] Donald Trump

At-Large Place 1

[ ] Stacy Lee George
[ ] Randy E. Duncan
[ ] Jim Bonner
[ ] Tom Davis

At-Large Place 2

[ ] Ken Gawronski, Jr.
[ ] Jim Carns

Congressional District Place 1

[ ] Frank Burt, Jr.
[ ] Gayle Hart

The numbers below are the number of delegate places that people have filed for. If the presidential candidate has filed, he is underlined.

Trump + 46 places (25 at-large + 21 district)
Carson + 45 (26 + 19)
Rubio + 43 (23 + 20)
Cruz + 40 (21 + 19)

Paul + 25 (9 + 16)
Bush + 19 (10 + 9)
Fiorina + 14 (4 + 10)
Kasich + 9 (3 + 6)
Huckabee + 6 (3 +3)
Santorum + 6 (2 + 4)
Graham + 0 (0 + 0)

Uncommitted + 3 (0 +3)

Christie + 0
Gilmore + 0
Pataki + 0

Notable are the number of delegate candidates for Paul, but without a presidential filing. They are either activists left over from his father's campaigns, willing to put down $150. Or Paul will file close to the deadline.

Assuming that no presidential candidate receives a majority, then the surest way to get delegates is to get over 20%. Otherwise, the only way to get delegates is for all candidates to receive less than 20%. I would say that it is quite unlikely that all of Trump, Carson, Rubio, and Cruz will fall below 20%.

[Mr. Morden]

If I'm understanding the website right, it looks like all the candidates have filed in Alabama now except Gilmore and Pataki.  A few of them still have no delegates listed though.

[Mr. Morden]

Alabama deadline now passed, and it looks like no Gilmore or Pataki:

https://twitter.com/greta/status/662767218296492032

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[Mr. Morden]

Clinton, O’Malley, Sanders, and a fourth Democratic candidate (Rocque "Rocky" de la Fuente) all made the Alabama ballot.  On the GOP side, all the candidates made it except for Gilmore and Pataki:

link

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I think Arizona and Arkansas deadlines are both on Monday.  Will be interesting to see if Gilmore and Pataki make it onto those ballots.  If they’re not going to qualify for the ballot anywhere, then they might as well drop out.

[jimrtex]

The filing deadline in Alabama was 5 pm Friday, November 6 (CST)

Christie, Paul, and Santorum filed, leaving only Gilmore and Pataki out. Alabama does require a petition (500 signatures statewide, or 50 in each of the 7 congressional districts), which likely requires more resources than the $10,000 filing fee.  Paul and Santorum also had a surge of delegate candidates at the end. Conceivably if you had each potential delegate candidate collect 20 signatures, that would give them enough signature. At opposite end of the spectrum Fiorina and most of her delegate candidates had filed early, but only a couple of additional candidates came forward.

There does not appear to be any formal mechanism for coordination between the presidential candidates and the delegate candidates. The delegate candidates have pledged to vote for their presidential candidate for the first couple of ballots, or until they are released by their presidential candidate.

Christie, Graham, and Jindal filed for the presidential ballot. The only way for them to get any pledged delegates would be if all candidates receive less than 20% of the vote, so the more candidates on the ballot the better. My understanding of the rules is that the state party chooses the alternate delegates, and if there is a vacancy, the alternate moves up, so if they are allocated any delegates, they may not be a die-hard supporter.

The top four have candidates for all 47 delegate positions, and are the only candidates who could conceivably at this time winner-take-all (if they are the only candidate over 20%).

Trump + 47 places (26 at-large + 21 district)
Carson + 47 (26 + 21)
Rubio + 47 (26 + 21)
Cruz + 47 (26 + 21)

The next five have delegate candidates in all congressional districts. Since there are only 3 delegates per district, having a candidate for one position in the district is plenty.

Paul + 45 (24 + 11)
Bush + 29  (13 + 16)
Santorum + 19 (5 + 14)
Kasich + 19 (6 + 13)
Fiorina + 16 (6 + 10)

I guess Huckabee is still running.

Huckabee + 7 (4 +3)

A presidential candidate but no delegate candidates. Graham filed very early, Christie very late.

Graham + 0 (0 + 0)
Christie + 0 (0+ 0)
Jindal + 0 (0 + 0)

Uncommitted is automatically on the ballot.

Uncommitted + 4 (1 +3)

The following two did not file for the presidential ballot and have no delegate candidates.

Gilmore + 0
Pataki + 0

[136or142]

http://aldemocrats.org/blog/candidates_who_have_qualified_as_of_october_26_2015_for_the_2016_democratic

Filing Closes November 13
1.Kennedy K Brown
2.Hillary Clinton
3.Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente
4.Martin O'Malley
5.Bernie Sanders

[Mr. Morden]

The Arkansas Secretary of State has a countdown clock for the state’s ballot filing deadline (deadline is 3pm Central time on Monday):

http://www.sos.arkansas.gov/elections/Pages/default.aspx

From media reports, it looks like Clinton, O’Malley, Sanders, Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Kasich, Rubio, and Trump have all filed there:

http://arkansasnews.com/news/arkansas/clinton-campaign-files-arkansas-ballot
http://www.wmcactionnews5.com/story/30458036/womack-fiorina-file-for-arkansas-ballot
http://www.kansascity.com/news/government-politics/article42954666.html

I haven’t heard anything about Paul, Gilmore, Jindal, Pataki, or Santorum.

[jimrtex]

The filing deadline in Arkansas is High Noon, Monday November 9. Presidential candidates file with the Secretary of State. Delegate selection is a separate process, though allocation of delegates is based on the primary.

Filed so far.

Jeb Bush    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
Ben Carson    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
Gov. Chris Christie    U.S. President    Republican    11/03/2015
Ted Cruz    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
Carly Fiorina    U.S. President    Republican    11/06/2015
Lindsey Graham    U.S. President    Republican    11/06/2015
Mike Huckabee    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
John R. Kasich    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
Marco Rubio    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
Donald J. Trump    U.S. President    Republican    11/03/2015

So candidates who filed in Alabama, who have yet to file in Arkansas are Paul, Santorum, and Jindal.

Hillary Clinton    U.S. President    Democratic    11/04/2015
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente    U.S. President    Democratic    11/06/2015
Martin J. O'Malley    U.S. President    Democratic    11/04/2015
Bernie Sanders    U.S. President    Democratic    11/02/2015
James Valentine    U.S. President    Democratic    11/05/2015

The party sets the filing fee. For the Republicans it is $25,000. For Democrats it is $2500 or 5000 signatures.

For the Republicans, allocation of 25 at-large delegates is proportional among all candidates receiving over 15% of the vote. The 3 delegates for each of the four congressional districts will be apportioned 2-1, or 3-0 if one candidate has a majority.

Delegates will be chosen at special conventions next spring. Delegate candidates will file in February ($250) and specify a candidate they will be pledged to. A delegate candidate may file for multiple presidential candidates so long as he pays the $250 fee for each. The presidential candidate may express a preference among the delegate candidates pledged to them.

District delegates will be chosen at special district conventions next spring. Delegates to the district conventions will be chosen by county conventions composed of members of county committees who are elected at the primary in March. Arkansas, like Alabama, has consolidated their regular primary with the presidential preference primary.

The state committee will choose the at-large delegates. The state committee consists of three members from each county, plus a slew of statewide committee members. Given the number of counties, they would dominate in the voting.

Since those choosing the delegates will probably not be directly allied with the presidential candidates there is an opportunity for some mischief here.

[The Mikado]

What's the final Arkansas ballot?

[JerryArkansas]

What's the final Arkansas ballot?

Final ballot from the SOS website is

Bush
Carson
Christie
Cruz
Fiorina
Graham
Huckabee
Jindal
Kasich
Paul
Rubio
Santorum
Trump

They all made it except for the other two, but they aren't really running a campaign anyways.

[JonathanSwift]

Perennial candidate John Wolfe has filed to appear on the ballot in Arkansas. Something tells me he'll significantly underperform his 2012 showing in the state.

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http://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/The-Latest-US-Sen-John-Boozman-files-for-6619456.php

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Perennial candidate John Wolfe has filed to appear on the ballot in Arkansas. Something tells me he'll significantly underperform his 2012 showing in the state.

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http://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/The-Latest-US-Sen-John-Boozman-files-for-6619456.php

I wonder if he could beat Bernie. That would be pretty funny if he did.

[Mr. Morden]

So Gilmore and Pataki failed to make another ballot.  What is the point of their campaigns if they're not actually going to get onto state ballots?

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

So Gilmore and Pataki failed to make another ballot.  What is the point of their campaigns if they're not actually going to get onto state ballots?

So that they can demand higher speaking fees. Not that anyone was lining up for them anyway...

[Mr. Morden]

Ballotpedia claims that the Arizona deadline was also Monday Nov. 9th:

http://ballotpedia.org/Important_dates_in_the_2016_presidential_race

However, I haven't seen any media coverage of the Arizona filing deadline.  Is that date erroneous?  Is there a more accurate list of filing deadlines somewhere on the interwebs?

[PPT Spiral]

Ballotpedia claims that the Arizona deadline was also Monday Nov. 9th:

http://ballotpedia.org/Important_dates_in_the_2016_presidential_race

However, I haven't seen any media coverage of the Arizona filing deadline.  Is that date erroneous?  Is there a more accurate list of filing deadlines somewhere on the interwebs?

Arizona's SOS website says otherwise. The deadline is December 14, and candidates can begin filing starting this Friday.

[Tender Branson]

Did I read this correctly on the AL GOP page ?

Jindal, Pataki and Gilmore will all appear on the primary ballot in Alabama, but have not managed to find a single delegate to represent them at the national GOP convention ?

[jimrtex]

Did I read this correctly on the AL GOP page ?

Jindal, Pataki and Gilmore will all appear on the primary ballot in Alabama, but have not managed to find a single delegate to represent them at the national GOP convention ?

No, you did not read it correctly.

There are two pages on the AL GOP website, one for delegates, and one for presidential preference.

The delegate page was set up in advance for all potential presidential candidates, and it was possible to file for delegate for a presidential candidate who did not file. If that had happened, the delegate would have the choice of (1) becoming an uncommitted delegate candidate; or (2) withdrawing and get the $150 filing fee back.

The presidential page only listed the candidates who had filed, as they filed. All but Pataki and Gilmore filed.

It is true, that Graham, Christie, and Jindal will all be on the presidential ballot, yet have no delegate candidates.

The allocation of delegates is based strictly on the presidential ballot. When a voter votes for a presidential candidate, they may also vote for the delegates who support the candidate. So if you lived in Alabama and voted for Donald Trump, you could also vote for Trump Position 1 (5 candidates), Trump Position 2 (2 candidates), and Trump Position 6 (2 candidates). There is only one candidate running for the other 23 positions, and they won't be on the ballot.

Let's say that Trump wins 18 delegates, then the delegate candidates who were elected to Positions 1 to 18 will serve as delegates. They have agreed to vote for Trump on the first two ballots.

Now let's imagine that Graham, Christie, or Jindal win a delegate. If this were to occur the alternate delegate would fill the delegate vacancy. The alternate delegates are chosen by the state party. There is no guarantee that they support the candidate, or that the party will consult with the presidential candidate. But the delegate will vote for the presidential candidate on the first two ballots.

[weixiaobao]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/664949765453443072

Trump good for Virginia?

[Mr. Morden]

Ballotpedia claims that the Arizona deadline was also Monday Nov. 9th:

http://ballotpedia.org/Important_dates_in_the_2016_presidential_race

However, I haven't seen any media coverage of the Arizona filing deadline.  Is that date erroneous?  Is there a more accurate list of filing deadlines somewhere on the interwebs?

Arizona's SOS website says otherwise. The deadline is December 14, and candidates can begin filing starting this Friday.

Right, but that's why I'm wondering, is the ballotpedia list mostly correct, and they just made this one mistake?  Or is the list junk?  Is there a better list out there, that doesn't require us to go to each individual state's SoS website to find the answer?

[Mr. Morden]

Names on the Michigan ballot: everybody but Gilmore:

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2015/11/12/2016-michigan-presidential-primary/75659534/

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[Mr. Morden]

So I haven't been paying as much attention to this this past week.  I guess the South Carolina Democratic ballot deadline passed, didn't it?  I assume that all three candidates made it on the ballot?

Then we've got the New Hampshire deadline this week on Friday, don't we?  Here's the NH SoS page:

http://sos.nh.gov/2016ElecInfo.aspx

Weirdly, if you click on "candidate filing calendar" and "candidates filed", some candidate names are on one list, some are on the other, and some are on both.  Looks like even Gilmore has filed there.  What about Pataki?  I don't see his name listed.  Pataki's entire campaign consists of wandering around New Hampshire.  Surely he intends to actually get on the ballot there, doesn't he?

[Tender Branson]

So I haven't been paying as much attention to this this past week.  I guess the South Carolina Democratic ballot deadline passed, didn't it?  I assume that all three candidates made it on the ballot?

Not quite:

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http://scdp.org/democratic-presidential-campaigns-begin-filing-in-south-carolina

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So can jindal and other dropouts take their names off the ballot?