Primary ballot access megathread

[Mr. Morden]

Are the delegates elected separately from the "popular vote" in the primary? Or does the delegate breakdown have to correspond with the popular vote?

Depends on the state, but in a lot, it is allotted by who wins a congressional district.  Only like 5 IIRC are WTA this time.  Others are using some variation of proportional allocation.

Only a few states are statewide WTA, but several others are WTA by congressional district.  For example, California, which is of course the biggest delegate prize, allocates some delegates WTA by the statewide vote, and some WTA for each congressional district (with every district counting the same, so McCarthy’s district counts the same as Barbara Lee’s district, despite having many times more Republicans).

In the case of Alabama, here are the delegate allocation rules:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/AL-R

26 delegates allocated “proportionally” by the statewide vote, and another 21 allocated by CD.  But the proportionality has a 20% cutoff.  It’s proportional for anyone who gets between 20 and 50% of the vote.  If anyone manages more than 50%, then they get all the delegates.  Likewise, for the CD delegates, each district gets three delegates.  If the winner gets 50% or more in the district, he gets all three delegates.  If only one candidate gets more than 20% in the district, he gets all three delegates.  But if multiple candidates get 20-50% and no one is above 50%, then the first place gets two delegates and second place gets one delegate.

[Mr. Morden]

One of you people living in the US should volunteer to be a delegate for one of the longshot candidates.  You never know, maybe there's a congressional district somewhere where Jim Gilmore will break 20%.  He has to be ready with a delegate to fill that spot!

[Mr. Morden]

I just saw this story:

http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2015/nov/03/7-file-presidential-bids-in-state-20151/

about Bush, Carson, Cruz, Huck, Kasich, Rubio, and Sanders all filing for the ballot in Arkansas on the first day.

How do you guys feel about me renaming this thread “primary ballot access megathread”, and stickying it, so we can keep track of who failed to get on each state ballot?

[Mr. Morden]

Today's the first day for filing in NH, and WMUR is live tweeting the event:

https://twitter.com/WMUR9

[Mr. Morden]

$10,000 filing fee for Alabama.  Will Gilmore be able to afford it?

[Mr. Morden]

In seriousness, as I've said before, the ballot deadlines are when we might start to finally see some more dropouts from the GOP race.  We've got Alabama this Friday, and then what?  Arizona and Arkansas coming on Monday?  It's not that those are must wins for anyone, but a candidate should be getting on the ballot in enough states to get a majority of delegates.  If you're missing almost every ballot filing, then what's the point of continuing?

I mean, too early to say that anyone will be in that category, but if Gilmore or Pataki (or anyone else) doesn't get on the ballot in any of those states, then it may be a sign that their campaign is about to fold.

[Mr. Morden]

If I'm understanding the website right, it looks like all the candidates have filed in Alabama now except Gilmore and Pataki.  A few of them still have no delegates listed though.

[Mr. Morden]

Alabama deadline now passed, and it looks like no Gilmore or Pataki:

https://twitter.com/greta/status/662767218296492032

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[Mr. Morden]

Clinton, O’Malley, Sanders, and a fourth Democratic candidate (Rocque "Rocky" de la Fuente) all made the Alabama ballot.  On the GOP side, all the candidates made it except for Gilmore and Pataki:

link

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I think Arizona and Arkansas deadlines are both on Monday.  Will be interesting to see if Gilmore and Pataki make it onto those ballots.  If they’re not going to qualify for the ballot anywhere, then they might as well drop out.

[Mr. Morden]

The Arkansas Secretary of State has a countdown clock for the state’s ballot filing deadline (deadline is 3pm Central time on Monday):

http://www.sos.arkansas.gov/elections/Pages/default.aspx

From media reports, it looks like Clinton, O’Malley, Sanders, Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Kasich, Rubio, and Trump have all filed there:

http://arkansasnews.com/news/arkansas/clinton-campaign-files-arkansas-ballot
http://www.wmcactionnews5.com/story/30458036/womack-fiorina-file-for-arkansas-ballot
http://www.kansascity.com/news/government-politics/article42954666.html

I haven’t heard anything about Paul, Gilmore, Jindal, Pataki, or Santorum.

[Mr. Morden]

So Gilmore and Pataki failed to make another ballot.  What is the point of their campaigns if they're not actually going to get onto state ballots?

[Mr. Morden]

Ballotpedia claims that the Arizona deadline was also Monday Nov. 9th:

http://ballotpedia.org/Important_dates_in_the_2016_presidential_race

However, I haven't seen any media coverage of the Arizona filing deadline.  Is that date erroneous?  Is there a more accurate list of filing deadlines somewhere on the interwebs?

[Mr. Morden]

Ballotpedia claims that the Arizona deadline was also Monday Nov. 9th:

http://ballotpedia.org/Important_dates_in_the_2016_presidential_race

However, I haven't seen any media coverage of the Arizona filing deadline.  Is that date erroneous?  Is there a more accurate list of filing deadlines somewhere on the interwebs?

Arizona's SOS website says otherwise. The deadline is December 14, and candidates can begin filing starting this Friday.

Right, but that's why I'm wondering, is the ballotpedia list mostly correct, and they just made this one mistake?  Or is the list junk?  Is there a better list out there, that doesn't require us to go to each individual state's SoS website to find the answer?

[Mr. Morden]

Names on the Michigan ballot: everybody but Gilmore:

http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2015/11/12/2016-michigan-presidential-primary/75659534/

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[Mr. Morden]

So I haven't been paying as much attention to this this past week.  I guess the South Carolina Democratic ballot deadline passed, didn't it?  I assume that all three candidates made it on the ballot?

Then we've got the New Hampshire deadline this week on Friday, don't we?  Here's the NH SoS page:

http://sos.nh.gov/2016ElecInfo.aspx

Weirdly, if you click on "candidate filing calendar" and "candidates filed", some candidate names are on one list, some are on the other, and some are on both.  Looks like even Gilmore has filed there.  What about Pataki?  I don't see his name listed.  Pataki's entire campaign consists of wandering around New Hampshire.  Surely he intends to actually get on the ballot there, doesn't he?

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like Pataki will file for the New Hampshire ballot tomorrow:

https://twitter.com/GovernorPataki/status/667070197472301057?lang=en

[Mr. Morden]

Pataki files in New Hampshire:

https://twitter.com/GovernorPataki/status/667406712333336576

I think this means all the candidates have filed to be on the ballot there.  Meaning that both Gilmore and Pataki are mathematically alive to get 0.00001% of the vote.

[Mr. Morden]

So is Ballotpedia correct that the next two filing deadlines to come are Florida on Monday Nov. 30th and Tennessee on Tuesday Dec. 1st?  Who's already on the ballot in those two states?

[Mr. Morden]

Politico has a story on the ballot access issues for GOP candidates, including a mention of the fact that Jim Gilmore is signing other candidates’ petitions in Virginia:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/2016-election-candidates-on-ballot-216191

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[Mr. Morden]

There are delegate candidates who have taken out petitions for:

Bush
Carson
Cruz
Fiorina
Huckabee
Kasich
Paul
Rubio
Santorum
Trump

According to this:

http://sos.tn.gov/sites/default/files/forms/Petition%20Delegates%20as%20of%2011-25-15%20%28By%20Candidate%20Supported%29.pdf

it looks like Christie also has some delegate candidates as well now.  But apparently no one wants to be a delegate for Gilmore, Graham, or Pataki.

[Mr. Morden]

Florida ballot:

http://postonpolitics.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2015/11/30/florida-republicans-democrats-set-candidate-lineup-for-march-presidential-primary/

Clinton, O’Malley, and Sanders all make it on the Democratic side.  The Republican side includes everyone except Pataki (yes, even Gilmore made it on the ballot, because he attended that “Sunshine Summit”, or whatever it was called).

Also, on Michigan:

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/671413955546521600

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[Mr. Morden]

As previously noted, six of the GOP candidates already submitted their signatures for the Virginia ballot.  Looks like six more have scheduled “signature pre-checks”: Graham, Paul, Rubio, Fiorina, Gilmore, and Huckabee.  That just leaves Pataki and Santorum who we haven’t heard from.

[Mr. Morden]

All 14 Pubs make Tennessee ballot, but only Bush, Cruz, Rubio, and Trump have full delegate slates.

What's the practical consequence of not having a full delegate slate in this case?  As I recall, when we were talking about Alabama, it sounded like it didn't make much difference.  If you win more delegates than have signed up for you, the state party just assigns some to you, and they're pledged to support you on the first ballot at the convention.  Does it work the same way in Tennessee?

[Mr. Morden]

Louisiana's filing period started today. Deadline is December 4.
Huckabee already filed.

It started on Wednesday, and the deadline is today?  That's not a very big window of time.

Any update on who's filed there?

[Mr. Morden]

Louisiana's filing period started today. Deadline is December 4.
Huckabee already filed.

It started on Wednesday, and the deadline is today?  That's not a very big window of time.

Any update on who's filed there?

Per Twitter, it looks like everyone but Gilmore and Pataki has filed in LA as of yesterday.

OK, I just searched on the SoS website, and indeed, it looks like everyone except Gilmore and Pataki made it on the ballot:

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/CandidateInquiry