Primary ballot access megathread

[jimrtex]

The filing deadline is Friday, November 6.

Alabama presidential candidates

Bush, Carson, Fiorina, Graham.

Alabama Delegate candidates.

4 candidates with a large number of delegate candidates:

Rubio (28)
Carson (26)
Cruz (23)
Trump (20)

Two with half as many:

Bush (14)
Fiorina (13)

Four with token amount:

Kasich (4)
Huckabee (2)
Paul (1)
Santorum (1)

Five with none:

Christie, Gilmore, Graham, Jindal, and Pataki.

[jimrtex]

The filing deadline is Friday, November 6.

Cruz and Kasich has filed. News stories say that Huckabee was in Alabama on Thursday to file.

Alabama presidential candidates

Bush, Carson, Fiorina, Graham, Rubio, +Kasich, +Cruz

Alabama Delegate candidates.

4 candidates with a large number of delegate candidates:

Rubio (28) (40)
Carson (26) (39)
Cruz (23) (36)
Trump (20) (36)

Three with half as many:

Bush (14) (18)
Fiorina (13)
Paul (1) (14)

Four with token amount:

Kasich (4) (8 )
Huckabee (2) (4)
Santorum (1) (4)
Uncommitted (2)

Five with none:

Christie, Gilmore, Graham, Jindal, and Pataki.

Allocation Rules

There are 26 at-large delegate positions, and 3 from each of the 7 congressional districts.

A presidential candidate needs $10,000 and either 500 signatures statewide, or 50 in each of the seven congressional districts.

Delegate candidates pay $150 and are pledged to a particular candidate or uncommitted. If the presidential candidate does not file, a delegate candidate may switch to uncommitted, or withdraw and get a refund of his $150.

Delegates file by position number (26 at-large positions and 3 district positions).

A voter may vote for a presidential candidate and 29 delegate positions among those pledged to the same candidate. Cross-over delegate votes are not permitted (it is not clear what happens if a voter does do this. Logically, his delegate votes would be ignored; but conceivably the whole ballot could be voided.

Only contested positions appear on the ballot. Carson has quite a few such delegate contests, the others are more sparse. Delegates might be able to switch positions.

Allocation of delegates is based on the presidential vote, under a Winner Take Most system.

For the three delegates from each district:

A presidential candidate receives a majority of the vote, or is the only candidate over 20%, then he gets all three delegates. If two or more candidates receive over 20%, it is a 2-1 split. If no candidate receives over 20%, then the delegates are allocated on a pro rata basis, but with a severe rounding rule that could make it revert to 3-0.

Numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number, so that between 1/6 and 20% will get one, and less than 1/6 will get zero. If too few delegates are apportioned, then the extra go to the top candidate. If too many are apportioned, the extra are lopped off the trailing candidates.

For the at-large delegates, it is winner-take-all if a candidate receives a majority or is the only candidate above 20%. Otherwise it is allocated on a pro rata basis among those over 20%. If no candidate is over 20%, then it is pro rata among all candidates.

I can't see anyone failing to get 20%, so it will end up being sharply divided among one or two candidates.

[jimrtex]

The filing deadline in Alabama is 5 pm Friday, November 6 in (CST)

There are 47 delegates chosen based on the primary, 26 at-large and 3 from each congressional district. Delegates are chosen based on position. If a delegate candidate is elected to At-Large Position 11, and the candidate is allocated 10 at-large delegates, then that candidate is not a delegate, though he might be considered for an alternate position.

If a delegate position is contested, then it will appear on the ballot. Only voters who vote for a presidential candidate, may vote for the delegates pledged to the presidential candidate. If there is only a single candidate for a position, they do not appear on the ballot.

So under Donald Trump's name:

[ ] Donald Trump

At-Large Place 1

[ ] Stacy Lee George
[ ] Randy E. Duncan
[ ] Jim Bonner
[ ] Tom Davis

At-Large Place 2

[ ] Ken Gawronski, Jr.
[ ] Jim Carns

Congressional District Place 1

[ ] Frank Burt, Jr.
[ ] Gayle Hart

The numbers below are the number of delegate places that people have filed for. If the presidential candidate has filed, he is underlined.

Trump + 46 places (25 at-large + 21 district)
Carson + 45 (26 + 19)
Rubio + 43 (23 + 20)
Cruz + 40 (21 + 19)

Paul + 25 (9 + 16)
Bush + 19 (10 + 9)
Fiorina + 14 (4 + 10)
Kasich + 9 (3 + 6)
Huckabee + 6 (3 +3)
Santorum + 6 (2 + 4)
Graham + 0 (0 + 0)

Uncommitted + 3 (0 +3)

Christie + 0
Gilmore + 0
Pataki + 0

Notable are the number of delegate candidates for Paul, but without a presidential filing. They are either activists left over from his father's campaigns, willing to put down $150. Or Paul will file close to the deadline.

Assuming that no presidential candidate receives a majority, then the surest way to get delegates is to get over 20%. Otherwise, the only way to get delegates is for all candidates to receive less than 20%. I would say that it is quite unlikely that all of Trump, Carson, Rubio, and Cruz will fall below 20%.

[jimrtex]

The filing deadline in Alabama was 5 pm Friday, November 6 (CST)

Christie, Paul, and Santorum filed, leaving only Gilmore and Pataki out. Alabama does require a petition (500 signatures statewide, or 50 in each of the 7 congressional districts), which likely requires more resources than the $10,000 filing fee.  Paul and Santorum also had a surge of delegate candidates at the end. Conceivably if you had each potential delegate candidate collect 20 signatures, that would give them enough signature. At opposite end of the spectrum Fiorina and most of her delegate candidates had filed early, but only a couple of additional candidates came forward.

There does not appear to be any formal mechanism for coordination between the presidential candidates and the delegate candidates. The delegate candidates have pledged to vote for their presidential candidate for the first couple of ballots, or until they are released by their presidential candidate.

Christie, Graham, and Jindal filed for the presidential ballot. The only way for them to get any pledged delegates would be if all candidates receive less than 20% of the vote, so the more candidates on the ballot the better. My understanding of the rules is that the state party chooses the alternate delegates, and if there is a vacancy, the alternate moves up, so if they are allocated any delegates, they may not be a die-hard supporter.

The top four have candidates for all 47 delegate positions, and are the only candidates who could conceivably at this time winner-take-all (if they are the only candidate over 20%).

Trump + 47 places (26 at-large + 21 district)
Carson + 47 (26 + 21)
Rubio + 47 (26 + 21)
Cruz + 47 (26 + 21)

The next five have delegate candidates in all congressional districts. Since there are only 3 delegates per district, having a candidate for one position in the district is plenty.

Paul + 45 (24 + 11)
Bush + 29  (13 + 16)
Santorum + 19 (5 + 14)
Kasich + 19 (6 + 13)
Fiorina + 16 (6 + 10)

I guess Huckabee is still running.

Huckabee + 7 (4 +3)

A presidential candidate but no delegate candidates. Graham filed very early, Christie very late.

Graham + 0 (0 + 0)
Christie + 0 (0+ 0)
Jindal + 0 (0 + 0)

Uncommitted is automatically on the ballot.

Uncommitted + 4 (1 +3)

The following two did not file for the presidential ballot and have no delegate candidates.

Gilmore + 0
Pataki + 0

[jimrtex]

The filing deadline in Arkansas is High Noon, Monday November 9. Presidential candidates file with the Secretary of State. Delegate selection is a separate process, though allocation of delegates is based on the primary.

Filed so far.

Jeb Bush    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
Ben Carson    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
Gov. Chris Christie    U.S. President    Republican    11/03/2015
Ted Cruz    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
Carly Fiorina    U.S. President    Republican    11/06/2015
Lindsey Graham    U.S. President    Republican    11/06/2015
Mike Huckabee    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
John R. Kasich    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
Marco Rubio    U.S. President    Republican    11/02/2015
Donald J. Trump    U.S. President    Republican    11/03/2015

So candidates who filed in Alabama, who have yet to file in Arkansas are Paul, Santorum, and Jindal.

Hillary Clinton    U.S. President    Democratic    11/04/2015
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente    U.S. President    Democratic    11/06/2015
Martin J. O'Malley    U.S. President    Democratic    11/04/2015
Bernie Sanders    U.S. President    Democratic    11/02/2015
James Valentine    U.S. President    Democratic    11/05/2015

The party sets the filing fee. For the Republicans it is $25,000. For Democrats it is $2500 or 5000 signatures.

For the Republicans, allocation of 25 at-large delegates is proportional among all candidates receiving over 15% of the vote. The 3 delegates for each of the four congressional districts will be apportioned 2-1, or 3-0 if one candidate has a majority.

Delegates will be chosen at special conventions next spring. Delegate candidates will file in February ($250) and specify a candidate they will be pledged to. A delegate candidate may file for multiple presidential candidates so long as he pays the $250 fee for each. The presidential candidate may express a preference among the delegate candidates pledged to them.

District delegates will be chosen at special district conventions next spring. Delegates to the district conventions will be chosen by county conventions composed of members of county committees who are elected at the primary in March. Arkansas, like Alabama, has consolidated their regular primary with the presidential preference primary.

The state committee will choose the at-large delegates. The state committee consists of three members from each county, plus a slew of statewide committee members. Given the number of counties, they would dominate in the voting.

Since those choosing the delegates will probably not be directly allied with the presidential candidates there is an opportunity for some mischief here.

[jimrtex]

Did I read this correctly on the AL GOP page ?

Jindal, Pataki and Gilmore will all appear on the primary ballot in Alabama, but have not managed to find a single delegate to represent them at the national GOP convention ?

No, you did not read it correctly.

There are two pages on the AL GOP website, one for delegates, and one for presidential preference.

The delegate page was set up in advance for all potential presidential candidates, and it was possible to file for delegate for a presidential candidate who did not file. If that had happened, the delegate would have the choice of (1) becoming an uncommitted delegate candidate; or (2) withdrawing and get the $150 filing fee back.

The presidential page only listed the candidates who had filed, as they filed. All but Pataki and Gilmore filed.

It is true, that Graham, Christie, and Jindal will all be on the presidential ballot, yet have no delegate candidates.

The allocation of delegates is based strictly on the presidential ballot. When a voter votes for a presidential candidate, they may also vote for the delegates who support the candidate. So if you lived in Alabama and voted for Donald Trump, you could also vote for Trump Position 1 (5 candidates), Trump Position 2 (2 candidates), and Trump Position 6 (2 candidates). There is only one candidate running for the other 23 positions, and they won't be on the ballot.

Let's say that Trump wins 18 delegates, then the delegate candidates who were elected to Positions 1 to 18 will serve as delegates. They have agreed to vote for Trump on the first two ballots.

Now let's imagine that Graham, Christie, or Jindal win a delegate. If this were to occur the alternate delegate would fill the delegate vacancy. The alternate delegates are chosen by the state party. There is no guarantee that they support the candidate, or that the party will consult with the presidential candidate. But the delegate will vote for the presidential candidate on the first two ballots.

[jimrtex]

Filing in Texas opened on Saturday 14.

Candidates who have filed so far are:

Donald Trump (R)

Keith Judd (D)

[jimrtex]

So can jindal and other dropouts take their names off the ballot?

By Alabama statute, a candidate can withdraw up to 60 days before the primary, which would give Jindal until January 1 or so to withdraw.

For Arkansas, the withdrawal date is 75 days before the primary, which would be mid-December.

[jimrtex]

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES

Among the candidates of the Big 1(15)7, everyone but Huckabee and Jindal filed in person.

Donald J. Trump, New York
Marco Rubio, Florida
Carly Fiorina, Virginia
John R. Kasich, Ohio
Chris Christie, New Jersey
Jim Gilmore, Virginia
Lindsey Graham, South Carolina
Ted Cruz, Texas
Rick Santorum, Virginia
Rand Paul, Kentucky
Bobby Jindal, Louisiana
Mike Huckabee, Florida
Jeb Bush, Florida
George Pataki, New York
Ben Carson, Florida

Joe Robinson, Massachusetts
Stephen B. Comley, Sr., Massachusetts
Chomi Prag, Wisconsin
Tim Cook, North Carolina
Richard P.H. Witz, Massachusetts
Peter Messina, Florida
Walter N. Iwachiw, New York
Andy Martin, New Hampshire
Stephen John McCarthy, Ohio
Matt Drozd, Pennsylvania
Brooks A. Cullison, Illinois
Kevin Glenn Huey, Colorado
Frank Lynch, Florida
Robert L. Mann, Indiana
J. Daniel Dyas, Sr., Alabama

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

Martin J. O’Malley, Maryland
Bernie Sanders, Vermont
Hillary Clinton, New York

Mark Stewart Greenstein, Connecticut
Eric Elbot, Massachusetts
Keith Judd, Texas
Sam Sloan, New York
Steve Burke, New York
Henry Hewes, New York
Brock C. Hutton, Maryland
James Valentine, Florida
Michael A. Steinberg, Florida
Rocky De La Fuente, California
Lloyd Kelso, North Carolina
William D. French, Pennsylvania
William H. McGaughey, Jr., Minnesota
Robert Lovitt, Kentucky
David John Thistle, New Hampshire
Star Locke, Texas
Raymond Michael Moroz, New York
Richard Lyons Weil, Colorado
Jon Adams, New York
Steven Roy Lipscomb, New Mexico
John Wolfe, Tennessee
Edward Sonnino, New York
Edward T. O’Donnell, Jr., Pennsylvania
Vermin Supreme, Massachusetts
Graham Schwass, Massachusetts

[jimrtex]

Filing in Texas opened on Saturday 14.

Candidates who have filed so far are:

Donald Trump (R)

Keith Judd (D)

I may have misread this.

In Texas, candidates file with the party chair. In the case of statewide offices, filing is with the state chair. Technically, the state chair informs the county party chairs of which candidates are running for statewide or multi-county offices, and then the county chair tells the county election officials who is running so that the county election officials can prepare the early election ballots, as well as prepare election day services such as programming voting machines.

But now the state chair informs the Secretary of State, who posts the information on its website. The state chair then tells the county chairs to look at the website to find out who is running, so that the county chairs can inform the county election officials whose name to put on the ballot.

The SOS disclaims all responsibility for the information provided by the parties.

Anyhow, I was sure that Donald Trump was the only Republican listed on the SOS website, but now only Jeb Bush is listed.

The RPT website lists the following as having filed, but says that they don't list the candidates until after they have reviewed their application.

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Marco Rubio

[jimrtex]

Filing in Texas opened on Saturday 14.

Candidates who have filed so far are:

Donald Trump (R)
Ben Carson (R)
Jeb Bush (R)
Marco Rubio (R)

Keith Judd (D)

[jimrtex]

Filing in Texas opened on Saturday 14.

Candidates who have filed so far are:

Donald Trump (R)
Ben Carson (R)
Jeb Bush (R)
Marco Rubio (R)

Keith Judd (D)

Someone named Hilary Clinton has filed to challenge Judd.

[jimrtex]

So is Ballotpedia correct that the next two filing deadlines to come are Florida on Monday Nov. 30th and Tennessee on Tuesday Dec. 1st?  Who's already on the ballot in those two states?

In Florida, the party files the list of candidates. It is up to the party to decide who is on the list. The SOS contacts the candidates on the list, and gives them an opportunity to remove their names.

The party must file that list by November 30, so the party likely has an earlier deadline.
In Tennessee, the Secretary of State makes a list of "generally advocated or recognized presidential candidates" by December 1. There is also a petition process for those who are not on the list, but the filing deadline is also December 1. Candidates on the SOS will have an opportunity to remove their names.

Republican delegate candidates file separately. In addition to a petition, they require written consent of the presidential candidate. The delegate filing deadline is December 10.

There are delegate candidates who have taken out petitions for:

Bush
Carson
Cruz
Fiorina
Huckabee
Kasich
Paul
Rubio
Santorum
Trump

A lot more have taken out petitions, than have returned them so far. Bush and Rubio seem to have the largest share who have qualified so far.

I don't know whether Graham, Jindal, and Pataki will be on the SOS list.

[jimrtex]

Politico has a story on the ballot access issues for GOP candidates, including a mention of the fact that Jim Gilmore is signing other candidates’ petitions in Virginia:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/2016-election-candidates-on-ballot-216191

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Virginia has one of the hardest petition requirements and includes a distribution requirement. There was another story about a congressman who was gathering signatures on election day in November, and Ed Gillespie walked up, and signed the petition. Someone gathering signatures for Carson showed up, but Gillespie said that he had already signed his petition.

In Texas, judges in larger counties need a petition, so there are petition parties where a party activist can go around and sign every candidate's petition.

[jimrtex]

All 14 Pubs make Tennessee ballot, but only Bush, Cruz, Rubio, and Trump have full delegate slates.

What's the practical consequence of not having a full delegate slate in this case?  As I recall, when we were talking about Alabama, it sounded like it didn't make much difference.  If you win more delegates than have signed up for you, the state party just assigns some to you, and they're pledged to support you on the first ballot at the convention.  Does it work the same way in Tennessee?

Voters choose from among delegate candidates supporting each candidate. The candidates can choose between N+1 and 2N candidates who have filed per CD (or at-large).

There is generally a 20% threshold, unless all candidates receive less than 20% of the popular vote, so for most candidates there is little consequence of not having enough delegates candidates.

[jimrtex]

Filing in Texas opened on Saturday 14.

Candidates who have filed so far are:

Donald Trump (R)
Ben Carson (R)
Jeb Bush (R)
Marco Rubio (R)

Keith Judd (D)

Someone named Hilary Clinton has filed to challenge Judd.

Cruz and Sanders have filed.

[jimrtex]

Filing in Texas opened on Saturday 14.

Candidates who have filed so far are:

Donald Trump (R)
Ben Carson (R)
Jeb Bush (R)
Marco Rubio (R)

Keith Judd (D)

Someone named Hilary Clinton has filed to challenge Judd.

Cruz and Sanders have filed.

Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Huckabee, Kasich, Rubio, Trump have filed.

Gilmore, Graham, Paul, Pataki, and Santorum are still out.

Keith Judd, Rocky De La Fuente, and Willie Wilson have filed for the Democrats, along with Clinton and Sanders.

[jimrtex]

Texas deadline is December 14 at 6 pm.

Because candidates file with the state party chair and not the SOS, the final lists may not be known immediately. Party chairs are required to send candidate lists to the SOS who posts them on the SOS website, but these are not validated. The state party chair will direct the county chairs to check the SOS website to find out who should be on the ballot in their county.

Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Graham, Huckabee, Kasich, Paul, Rubio, Trump have filed.

Gilmore, Pataki, and Santorum are still out.

Keith Judd, Rocky De La Fuente, Calvis Hawes and Willie Wilson have filed for the Democrats, along with Clinton, O'Malley, and Sanders.