IA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Cruz rising, Trump leads
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Author Topic: IA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Cruz rising, Trump leads  (Read 1327 times)
RI
realisticidealist
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« on: November 02, 2015, 04:33:26 PM »
New Poll: Iowa President by Public Policy Polling on 2015-11-01

Summary:
Trump:
22%
Carson:
21%
Cruz:
14%
Rubio:
10%
Huckabee:
6%
Jindal:
6%
Other:
20%
Undecided:
1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2015, 04:41:11 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2015, 04:52:45 PM by Likely Voter »
full list (change since last poll ending 9/20)

Donald Trump 22% (-2)
Ben Carson  21% (+4)
Ted Cruz 14% (+6)
Marco Rubio 10% (+2)
Mike Huckabee  6% (--)
Bobby Jindal  6% (+2)
Carly Fiorina  5% (-8)
Jeb Bush 5% (-1)
Chris Christie   3% (+2)
John Kasich  2% (--)
Rand Paul  2% (-2)
Rick Santorum  2% (-1)
Jim Gilmore  0% (--)
Lindsey Graham  0% (--)
George Pataki  0% (--)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2015, 04:43:00 PM »
Cruzmentum!
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2015, 05:05:55 PM »
Praise God for giving us Iowa Moderates!

Go for Trump 38-12-11 (DJT-BC-MR)
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2015, 05:11:37 PM »
Jeb 8th in Iowa? Lol.
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Brewer
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2015, 05:15:59 PM »
Jindalmentum?!
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2015, 05:20:19 PM »
Cruz had just as much, if not more of a debate bounce as Rubio and yet the media is only reporting about his momentum?
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2015, 05:23:27 PM »
Quote from: Clinton1996 on November 02, 2015, 05:20:19 PM
Cruz had just as much, if not more of a debate bounce as Rubio and yet the media is only reporting about his momentum?

It fits the media narrative to have Rubio as the New Establishment AlternativeTM so they can pretend the GOP is still sane.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2015, 05:24:31 PM »

Iowa Miracle 2.0
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2015, 05:37:17 PM »
#Piyushmentum
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2015, 05:52:29 PM »
Cruzing to victory!
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2015, 09:00:37 PM »
Who leads among…?

Tea Party: Cruz
not Tea Party: Trump
not sure if Tea Party: Carson
Evangelical: Carson
not Evangelical: Trump
watched debate live on TV: Trump
saw clips of the debate: Carson/Trump tie
didn’t watch debate at all: Carson
moderate: Trump
conservative: Carson
men: Trump
women: Carson
age 18-45: Trump
age 46-65: Trump
age 65+: Carson/Trump tie
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2015, 12:26:35 AM »
Oh and there's the question of if you're more concerned about who is the most conservative vs. who is the most electable. Ted Cruz leads in the most conservative category with 27 to Carson's 21 (Trump in a pretty distant third at 16), but in the category of most electable Trump surges to 26 over Carson's 22, with Cruz way way down at 6%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2015, 07:58:45 AM »
one-on-one matchups:

Trump 55%
Bush 37%

Carson 55%
Trump 35%

Cruz 53%
Trump 36%

Rubio 51%
Trump 40%

fav/unfav among their own party:

Clinton 74/17% for +57%
Sanders 62/20% for +42%

Carson 74/13% for +61%
Cruz 62/16% for +46%
Jindal 60/18% for +42%
Rubio 60/20% for +40%
Huckabee 60/21% for +39%
Fiorina 55/20% for +35%
Santorum 51/21% for +30%
Christie 48/28% for +20%
Trump 53/34% for +19%
Paul 44/28% for +16%
Bush 30/43% for -13%
Graham 20/38% for -18%
Gilmore 3/26% for -23%
Pataki 8/34% for -26%

That’s a big recovery in favorability for Christie.  He was -10 in August, but is +20 now.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2015, 08:10:51 AM »
« Edited: November 03, 2015, 08:15:17 AM by eric82oslo »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on November 03, 2015, 07:58:45 AM
one-on-one matchups:

Trump 55%
Bush 37%

Carson 55%
Trump 35%

Cruz 53%
Trump 36%

Rubio 51%
Trump 40%

fav/unfav among their own party:

Clinton 74/17% for +57%
Sanders 62/20% for +42%

Carson 74/13% for +61%
Cruz 62/16% for +46%
Jindal 60/18% for +42%
Rubio 60/20% for +40%
Huckabee 60/21% for +39%
Fiorina 55/20% for +35%
Santorum 51/21% for +30%
Christie 48/28% for +20%
Trump 53/34% for +19%
Paul 44/28% for +16%
Bush 30/43% for -13%
Graham 20/38% for -18%
Gilmore 3/26% for -23%
Pataki 8/34% for -26%

That’s a big recovery in favorability for Christie.  He was -10 in August, but is +20 now.


Very little in these numbers point to Trump being the eventual nominee. We can all breath a sigh of relief now. I'm surprised that Paul is suddenly this popular, even if it's only in Iowa. I hope the voters asked didn't confuse him with Paul Ryan, since he's been so much in the news lately.

Imagine if Trump would really finished 9th in Iowa. I could easily see him dropping out of the contest at that point, even if he would still have a substantial lead in New Hampshire. It would just be such a personal blow for him, that I don't think he would any longer have the morals to go on. He would suddenly feel like a loser and that would not be good for his self-esteem. (It would perhaps be just as devastating for Bush if he really would finish 11th in Iowa though.)
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2015, 08:45:56 AM »
Quote from: eric82oslo on November 03, 2015, 08:10:51 AM
Very little in these numbers point to Trump being the eventual nominee.

But a lot in other numbers do.

Anyway, I predict that Jindal will end up being the Santorum of this race. He won't be the nominee but he'll end up as a surprisingly strong contender.
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