Democrats set to sweep PA Supreme Court open seats

[Crumpets]

Just saw this on the AP news wire. Perhaps a silver lining for Democrats tonight:

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[IceSpear]

Just like 2014, PA is the sole bright spot on a horrible night for Dems.

[KingSweden]

This is a huge deal - if Tom Wolf is reelected (big if), then a stalled redistricting process at the legislative level would probably go to a D-skewed Supreme Court.

Of course, ideally these things wouldn't have to be settled by courts, but I digress...

[Gass3268]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

[Vosem]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

It means that if state government is deadlocked in 2021, the court will be more likely to draw a Democratic-favorable map, though since they are a court they will not be able to openly gerrymander. Both legislative houses in PA are probably safe for the GOP for the rest of the decade, so it'll probably come down to the 2018 gubernatorial election. If the Republicans can knock off Tom Wolf, we'll be able to draw the Pennsylvania maps for a third decade in a row, which would be pleasant.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

It means that if state government is deadlocked in 2021, the court will be more likely to draw a Democratic-favorable map, though since they are a court they will not be able to openly gerrymander. Both legislative houses in PA are probably safe for the GOP for the rest of the decade, so it'll probably come down to the 2018 gubernatorial election. If the Republicans can knock off Tom Wolf, we'll be able to draw the Pennsylvania maps for a third decade in a row, which would be pleasant.

That's also true.  If Wolf is reelected, the chances of a Colorado scenario where the court just adopts whatever map the Dems propose for congress will go up.

But, assuming that the Republicans maintain both houses in PA, this is irrelevant in redistricting, right?

[Gass3268]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

He's saying that the Dems will have total control for redistricting in 2022. He usually knows his stuff.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

It means that if state government is deadlocked in 2021, the court will be more likely to draw a Democratic-favorable map, though since they are a court they will not be able to openly gerrymander. Both legislative houses in PA are probably safe for the GOP for the rest of the decade, so it'll probably come down to the 2018 gubernatorial election. If the Republicans can knock off Tom Wolf, we'll be able to draw the Pennsylvania maps for a third decade in a row, which would be pleasant.

That's also true.  If Wolf is reelected, the chances of a Colorado scenario where the court just adopts whatever map the Dems propose for congress will go up.

But, assuming that the Republicans maintain both houses in PA, this is irrelevant in redistricting, right?

No.  For congressional redistricting, it comes down to whether Wolf gets a 2nd term.  The 5/2 Dem Supreme Court likely means a favorable map for Dems if Wolf is around to veto.  Otherwise, Republicans can do as they wish for congress.

For the state legislature, PA has a commission process where the majority and minority leaders in each chamber appoint a member, so 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans, regardless of the parties' margins in the legislature.  Then the state supreme court picks the 5th member, and they have a history of being partisan about it.  Tonight means that Democrats will likely get to "Mathismander" the state legislature in 2021, even if Republicans still control it.

When will these Supreme Court seats next be elected?

[Gass3268]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

It means that if state government is deadlocked in 2021, the court will be more likely to draw a Democratic-favorable map, though since they are a court they will not be able to openly gerrymander. Both legislative houses in PA are probably safe for the GOP for the rest of the decade, so it'll probably come down to the 2018 gubernatorial election. If the Republicans can knock off Tom Wolf, we'll be able to draw the Pennsylvania maps for a third decade in a row, which would be pleasant.

That's also true.  If Wolf is reelected, the chances of a Colorado scenario where the court just adopts whatever map the Dems propose for congress will go up.

But, assuming that the Republicans maintain both houses in PA, this is irrelevant in redistricting, right?

No.  For congressional redistricting, it comes down to whether Wolf gets a 2nd term.  The 5/2 Dem Supreme Court likely means a favorable map for Dems if Wolf is around to veto.  Otherwise, Republicans can do as they wish for congress.

For the state legislature, PA has a commission process where the majority and minority leaders in each chamber appoint a member, so 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans, regardless of the parties' margins in the legislature.  Then the state supreme court picks the 5th member, and they have a history of being partisan about it.  Tonight means that Democrats will likely get to "Mathismander" the state legislature in 2021, even if Republicans still control it.

So essentially:

Congressional Maps: Wolf Wins = Democratic Gerrymander / Wolf Loses = Republican Gerrymander
Statewide Maps: Democratic Gerrymander

Do I have that right?

[Ebsy]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

It means that if state government is deadlocked in 2021, the court will be more likely to draw a Democratic-favorable map, though since they are a court they will not be able to openly gerrymander. Both legislative houses in PA are probably safe for the GOP for the rest of the decade, so it'll probably come down to the 2018 gubernatorial election. If the Republicans can knock off Tom Wolf, we'll be able to draw the Pennsylvania maps for a third decade in a row, which would be pleasant.

That's also true.  If Wolf is reelected, the chances of a Colorado scenario where the court just adopts whatever map the Dems propose for congress will go up.

But, assuming that the Republicans maintain both houses in PA, this is irrelevant in redistricting, right?

No.  For congressional redistricting, it comes down to whether Wolf gets a 2nd term.  The 5/2 Dem Supreme Court likely means a favorable map for Dems if Wolf is around to veto.  Otherwise, Republicans can do as they wish for congress.

For the state legislature, PA has a commission process where the majority and minority leaders in each chamber appoint a member, so 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans, regardless of the parties' margins in the legislature.  Then the state supreme court picks the 5th member, and they have a history of being partisan about it.  Tonight means that Democrats will likely get to "Mathismander" the state legislature in 2021, even if Republicans still control it.

When will these Supreme Court seats next be elected?

Not soon enough!

[Asian Nazi]

It won't matter.  Pennsylvania's STRONG R TREND will ensure that the GOP wins every seat by 2022 anyway.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

It means that if state government is deadlocked in 2021, the court will be more likely to draw a Democratic-favorable map, though since they are a court they will not be able to openly gerrymander. Both legislative houses in PA are probably safe for the GOP for the rest of the decade, so it'll probably come down to the 2018 gubernatorial election. If the Republicans can knock off Tom Wolf, we'll be able to draw the Pennsylvania maps for a third decade in a row, which would be pleasant.

That's also true.  If Wolf is reelected, the chances of a Colorado scenario where the court just adopts whatever map the Dems propose for congress will go up.

But, assuming that the Republicans maintain both houses in PA, this is irrelevant in redistricting, right?

No.  For congressional redistricting, it comes down to whether Wolf gets a 2nd term.  The 5/2 Dem Supreme Court likely means a favorable map for Dems if Wolf is around to veto.  Otherwise, Republicans can do as they wish for congress.

For the state legislature, PA has a commission process where the majority and minority leaders in each chamber appoint a member, so 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans, regardless of the parties' margins in the legislature.  Then the state supreme court picks the 5th member, and they have a history of being partisan about it.  Tonight means that Democrats will likely get to "Mathismander" the state legislature in 2021, even if Republicans still control it.

When will these Supreme Court seats next be elected?

They are elected to 10 year terms, so all 3 Dems elected tonight will be on the court past 2021 barring illness or scandal.  Of the 4 justices not elected tonight, a Democrat and a Republican face mandatory retirement before the end of Wolf's current term as governor.  Also, an existing Democratic justice appears to face a retention election prior to 2020.  

So, the Republicans could theoretically win both of those elections and get back to 4-3?

[muon2]

Will the Pubs in the legislature recognize what will happen in the next legislative remap and put forward an OH-style amendment to reform redistricting?

[Gass3268]

So how easy would it be for Democrats to gerrymander the state legislature in PA? Could they get majorities in either chamber? That would be awesome!

Also if they are going to go for redistricting reform is should be Iowa/California style, not the faux reform of Ohio.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

It means that if state government is deadlocked in 2021, the court will be more likely to draw a Democratic-favorable map, though since they are a court they will not be able to openly gerrymander. Both legislative houses in PA are probably safe for the GOP for the rest of the decade, so it'll probably come down to the 2018 gubernatorial election. If the Republicans can knock off Tom Wolf, we'll be able to draw the Pennsylvania maps for a third decade in a row, which would be pleasant.

That's also true.  If Wolf is reelected, the chances of a Colorado scenario where the court just adopts whatever map the Dems propose for congress will go up.

But, assuming that the Republicans maintain both houses in PA, this is irrelevant in redistricting, right?

No.  For congressional redistricting, it comes down to whether Wolf gets a 2nd term.  The 5/2 Dem Supreme Court likely means a favorable map for Dems if Wolf is around to veto.  Otherwise, Republicans can do as they wish for congress.

For the state legislature, PA has a commission process where the majority and minority leaders in each chamber appoint a member, so 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans, regardless of the parties' margins in the legislature.  Then the state supreme court picks the 5th member, and they have a history of being partisan about it.  Tonight means that Democrats will likely get to "Mathismander" the state legislature in 2021, even if Republicans still control it.

When will these Supreme Court seats next be elected?

They are elected to 10 year terms, so all 3 Dems elected tonight will be on the court past 2021 barring illness or scandal.  Of the 4 justices not elected tonight, a Democrat and a Republican face mandatory retirement before the end of Wolf's current term as governor.  Also, an existing Democratic justice appears to face a retention election prior to 2020.  

So, the Republicans could theoretically win both of those elections and get back to 4-3?

No, because when the 1D and 1R face mandatory retirement within this term of Wolf's, he will appoint two Democrats. Combined with the 3D wins today, that's 4-3 Democratic.

[Gass3268]

Wow 6D-1R PA Supreme Court! That's amazing!

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

It means that if state government is deadlocked in 2021, the court will be more likely to draw a Democratic-favorable map, though since they are a court they will not be able to openly gerrymander. Both legislative houses in PA are probably safe for the GOP for the rest of the decade, so it'll probably come down to the 2018 gubernatorial election. If the Republicans can knock off Tom Wolf, we'll be able to draw the Pennsylvania maps for a third decade in a row, which would be pleasant.

That's also true.  If Wolf is reelected, the chances of a Colorado scenario where the court just adopts whatever map the Dems propose for congress will go up.

But, assuming that the Republicans maintain both houses in PA, this is irrelevant in redistricting, right?

No.  For congressional redistricting, it comes down to whether Wolf gets a 2nd term.  The 5/2 Dem Supreme Court likely means a favorable map for Dems if Wolf is around to veto.  Otherwise, Republicans can do as they wish for congress.

For the state legislature, PA has a commission process where the majority and minority leaders in each chamber appoint a member, so 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans, regardless of the parties' margins in the legislature.  Then the state supreme court picks the 5th member, and they have a history of being partisan about it.  Tonight means that Democrats will likely get to "Mathismander" the state legislature in 2021, even if Republicans still control it.

When will these Supreme Court seats next be elected?

They are elected to 10 year terms, so all 3 Dems elected tonight will be on the court past 2021 barring illness or scandal.  Of the 4 justices not elected tonight, a Democrat and a Republican face mandatory retirement before the end of Wolf's current term as governor.  Also, an existing Democratic justice appears to face a retention election prior to 2020.  

So, the Republicans could theoretically win both of those elections and get back to 4-3?

No, because when the 1D and 1R face mandatory retirement within this term of Wolf's, he will appoint two Democrats. Combined with the 3D wins today, that's 4-3 Democratic.

Two Democratic appointees who serve until when, though?  And why were two seats vacant currently?

Mandatory retirement upon reaching age 70 by PA Constitution.

[DrScholl]

Surely the Republican controlled legislature won't let this drop. There probably will be some sort of action taken to correct this.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Congrats Ph-

Wait

[muon2]

Surely the Republican controlled legislature won't let this drop. There probably will be some sort of action taken to correct this.

Not if Wolf's veto pen has anything to say about it.  If Republicans pick PA-GOV back up in 2018, you are probably right, though.

I don't think a constitutional amendment requires the gov's signature. As I understand it, an amendment can be approved by a majority of both chambers in two consecutive assemblies then sent to the voters directly. An independent or bipartisan redistricting amendment could emerge that way.