Democrats set to sweep PA Supreme Court open seats

[Gass3268]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

[Gass3268]

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He's saying that the Dems will have total control for redistricting in 2022. He usually knows his stuff.

[Gass3268]

This will mean Democrats will have control of redistricting in 2021, correct?

It means that if state government is deadlocked in 2021, the court will be more likely to draw a Democratic-favorable map, though since they are a court they will not be able to openly gerrymander. Both legislative houses in PA are probably safe for the GOP for the rest of the decade, so it'll probably come down to the 2018 gubernatorial election. If the Republicans can knock off Tom Wolf, we'll be able to draw the Pennsylvania maps for a third decade in a row, which would be pleasant.

That's also true.  If Wolf is reelected, the chances of a Colorado scenario where the court just adopts whatever map the Dems propose for congress will go up.

But, assuming that the Republicans maintain both houses in PA, this is irrelevant in redistricting, right?

No.  For congressional redistricting, it comes down to whether Wolf gets a 2nd term.  The 5/2 Dem Supreme Court likely means a favorable map for Dems if Wolf is around to veto.  Otherwise, Republicans can do as they wish for congress.

For the state legislature, PA has a commission process where the majority and minority leaders in each chamber appoint a member, so 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans, regardless of the parties' margins in the legislature.  Then the state supreme court picks the 5th member, and they have a history of being partisan about it.  Tonight means that Democrats will likely get to "Mathismander" the state legislature in 2021, even if Republicans still control it.

So essentially:

Congressional Maps: Wolf Wins = Democratic Gerrymander / Wolf Loses = Republican Gerrymander
Statewide Maps: Democratic Gerrymander

Do I have that right?

[Gass3268]

So how easy would it be for Democrats to gerrymander the state legislature in PA? Could they get majorities in either chamber? That would be awesome!

Also if they are going to go for redistricting reform is should be Iowa/California style, not the faux reform of Ohio.

[Gass3268]

Wow 6D-1R PA Supreme Court! That's amazing!