Will Jeb win a single county?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Of course not.

Winning counties is for winners, not low energy LOSERS like Jeb.

[bagelman]

in what? The Iowa primary, the NH primary, the GE?

[defe07]

in what? The Iowa primary, the NH primary, the GE?

Whoa, I didn't know G.E: has primaries! LMAO!!

[DrScholl]

Probably not unless he makes it to Florida and I don't see him still being in the race by the time Florida votes.

[Mehmentum]

in what? The Iowa primary, the NH primary, the GE?

I presume any of the above.

I suspect he won't at this point.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Some random rural county in Iowa might go for him. In New Hampshire, he should win 1-2 of the 10 or so counties.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

New Hampshire isn't polarized enough for him to win any of them. And yes I mean in any primary.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Some random rural county in Iowa might go for him. In New Hampshire, he should win 1-2 of the 10 or so counties.

How? I don't see either of these as remotely possible, and frankly I never did because this candidacy has always been a joke. When we were asked to make Bush vs. Walker maps, I'm pretty sure I even said then that Bush would not be winning anything in reality.

[Lief 🗽]

Maybe if he's lucky he'll win a single town.

[Lincoln Republican]

Jeb's supporters are leaving him in droves and moving over to Rubio, so I doubt Jeb does very well at all.

Jeb is simply not a compelling candidate.

[Mr. Morden]

The probability that he's even still in the race by the time Iowa votes is probably not much more than 50/50.

In any case, how many of the GOP candidates do you think are more than 50% likely to win at least one county?  Probably not many.

[Figueira]

in what? The Iowa primary, the NH primary, the GE?

If we're talking about the GE, assuming Jeb. is nominated, I doubt he'll get any counties. He might come close in King County, Texas, but I would rate that as Likely D.

[I support Sanders]

He'll most likely win at least one county, probably more, but it is very unlikely now that he'll win the nomination. Jeb is not a second-tier candidate yet, however, and he still has a shot.

[RI]

With his current numbers, no way.

[/]

Probably not unless he makes it to Florida and I don't see him still being in the race by the time Florida votes.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The probability that he's even still in the race by the time Iowa votes is probably not much more than 50/50.

In any case, how many of the GOP candidates do you think are more than 50% likely to win at least one county?  Probably not many.

Loser Perry carried counties in Iowa in 2012. Jeb winning a county there shouldn't be hard.

[Mr. Morden]

The probability that he's even still in the race by the time Iowa votes is probably not much more than 50/50.

In any case, how many of the GOP candidates do you think are more than 50% likely to win at least one county?  Probably not many.

Loser Perry carried counties in Iowa in 2012. Jeb winning a county there shouldn't be hard.

But Perry got 10% statewide (in a year in which no candidate topped 25% in the state), and Bush needs to make up a lot of ground there in order to do that well.

Also, as I said, in order to answer this question, you've got to handicap the odds that Bush will even still be in the race by the time Iowa votes.  I'd say the chances of him dropping out by then are rather significant.  OTOH, the scenario in which he stays in is likely to be one in which his poll #s rebound, at least somewhat.

[pbrower2a]

I wonder if there is dirt on him, a smoking gun that liberal media know about will not expose until an opportune time. The Florida Republican Party is a corrupt apparatus, and the corruption began before Jeb Bush left office.

If anyone has any dirt on the 2000 election that might point to Jeb, then anything more concrete than statistical anomalies might still be available. Maybe there are some family scandals.

Politicians running for office run lackluster campaigns either because they are incompetent campaigners (but Jeb did get elected fair-and-square  at one time, so that is unlikely in his case) or because they are scared of some disclosure. Politicians not in trouble can be ebullient.

Think of John Edwards.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

He likely will not win a county unless he makes it to the Texas primary on March 1.

[Crumpets]

If he's still in the race, yes.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Some random rural county in Iowa might go for him. In New Hampshire, he should win 1-2 of the 10 or so counties.

How? I don't see either of these as remotely possible, and frankly I never did because this candidacy has always been a joke. When we were asked to make Bush vs. Walker maps, I'm pretty sure I even said then that Bush would not be winning anything in reality.

Rick Perry won two counties in Iowa in 2012, even though he came in 5th and his campaign was widely seen as a joke at that point. The field is split so many ways that he'll likely win 1 or 2 small Iowa counties, but he won't win any anywhere else.

[RI]

Some random rural county in Iowa might go for him. In New Hampshire, he should win 1-2 of the 10 or so counties.

How? I don't see either of these as remotely possible, and frankly I never did because this candidacy has always been a joke. When we were asked to make Bush vs. Walker maps, I'm pretty sure I even said then that Bush would not be winning anything in reality.

Rick Perry won two counties in Iowa in 2012, even though he came in 5th and his campaign was widely seen as a joke at that point. The field is split so many ways that he'll likely win 1 or 2 small Iowa counties, but he won't win any anywhere else.

Perry got 10% of the vote in Iowa. Bush will be lucky to get half that.