Whatcom County, WA Redistricting and Political Geography

[Asian Nazi]

I don't think anybody else here cares, but I've decided to post a thread about my county mostly for self-reference.  

Whatcom County, Washington is situated in the Northwestern corner of the lower 48 states.  In addition to the Port of Bellingham, Whatcom County also has a strong agricultural sector, producing 75% of the nation's raspberries.  

Like much of Western Washington, Whatcom County has a pretty stark urban-rural cultural/political divide.  This divide is further accentuated out here by two factors.  The first factor is Western Washington University (my alma mater), which is the third largest university in Washington State, with nearly 15,000 students, and makes up a significant percentage of Bellingham's population.  The other factor is Lynden, a predominantly Dutch American community and every bit as socially conservative as other Dutch communities in the United States.  As Bellingham has grown and the suburbs have gone bluer, Whatcom County has started to become pretty safe for the Democrats at the federal level, though we voted Republican as recently as 2000.  

This political and cultural divide is currently shaping up a battle over the proposed Gateway Pacific Coal Terminal.  Whatcom County has a long tradition of supporting such projects, but the increasingly culturally liberal Bellingham has put its foot down over this particular issue.  Not only does it divide Whatcom County between rural conservatives and urban liberals, but it pits labor against environmentalists as well.  For now, the issue has been temporarily shoved aside, as demand in China for American coal has dropped as of late, but I'm sure that the issue will come back soon enough.

The battle over the issue has, as one might expect, spilled over into local politics.  The Whatcom County Council is currently composed of seven members, six of which elected in primaries in three districts, and all seven of which are voted on countywide.  In 2013, Democrats ran a high-profile campaign against the coal terminal, resulting in an electoral sweep that drew attention from progressives nationwide.  As you would expect, conservatives and the coal lobby were not happy with this.  This year, several propositions about the composition of our local government were presented to voters.  

There are two relevant propositions to the topic of this thread.  The first one proposed an end to the current at-large electoral system, instead moving to a more traditional district-based system.  This proposal was supported by conservatives, opposed by progressives, and looks to have passed.  The second proposition involved a switch from three two-member districts with one at-large seat to five one-member districts and two at-large seats.  This one received more bipartisan support and seems to have passed as well.

So, if the results hold, we will be moving to a system with five districts, each of which will elect their own representative to County Council, along with two at-large representatives.  This, most importantly, gives me a chance to totally nerd out and make a five district map of Whatcom County in Dave's Redistricing.

Here is the current map, for comparison:



Pretty damn ugly.  Splits Bellingham in three and doesn't really take into account communities, geography, or, like anything.  It's a relic of a former electoral system from the 1970's and has remained due to inertia more than anything else.

Also, here's a nice map of the partisan makeup of Whatcom County to keep in mind while looking at the other maps:



Boy, I love maps.

Next I'll post my maps.

[Asian Nazi]

The first map, which I based loosely off of a proposal I saw online, is probably the closest to following Whatcom County's natural communities.  It also happens to basically be a Democrat gerrymander.



District 1 (blue): Lynden-centric and covers the surrounding rural areas and small towns, such as Sumas, Custer, Greenwood, Laurel, and Victor.  You could easily swap Sumas for Nooksack, too, though the version I drew works better for population balance.  Happens to have the highest Hispanic population at 10.4%, according to the 2010 Census.  Very conservative, due to the aforementioned Dutchiness, with a particularly socially conservative bent.  Voted 64.2-33.9 for McCain over Obama and 71.1-28.9 Rossi over Murray in 2010. 

Safe R, and probably about the Safest R district you could draw west of the Cascades, with the possible exception of Lewis County.

District 2 (green): Ferndale-centric, but stretches from the northern Bellingham suburbs all the way up to Point Roberts and the Canadian border, containing the towns of Birch Bay and Blaine as well as Lummi Nation.  This is the district I would be residing in.  It's also the most racially diverse district (77.4% white), thanks in part to its large Native American population (7.2%).  Somewhat swingy, but definitely would have a good Democrat lean most of the time.  Voted 55.6-42.4 for Obama over McCain, and 50.3-49.7 for Murray over Rossi.

Likely D, but could go R in a good year or with a good candidate.

District 3 (purple):  The worst district, in terms of containing actual natural communities.  Five district Whatcom works out pretty well, with two Bellingham districts, a Ferndale district, and a Lynden district, but this is the leftovers.  Much of this district is uninhabited, but it also contains a swath of small towns and Bellingham exurbs.  Atlas bluish in the north, Atlas reddish in the south.  Surprisingly liberal, voted 55.4-42.8 for Obama and 50.5-49.5 for Murray.

Likely D, like District two, but could go R in a good year.



District 4 (red):  Bellingham splits nicely north and south in this scenario.  This was once a KKK haven, but is now a white liberal college town.  Most of the residents here are either Western Washington University students, employees of the school, or employed in services that essentially only exist because of the school.  Also contains the "town" of Fairhaven as well as much of downtown.   As you would expect, it votes pretty heavily Democrat.  76.1-22.0 Obama and 71.4-28.6 Murray.

Safe D.  Not much else to say.

District 5 (yellow):  Northern Bellingham.  Mostly residential and much more working class.  Also contains some students, with Whatcom Community College and Bellingham Technical College inside it.  According to the 2010 Census, this would be the second most racially diverse district after District 2, with 78.5% of the residents being white.  Would have the highest Asian population (6.4%).  Voted 70.0-28.1 for Obama and 65.4-34.6 for Murray.

Slightly less solid than District 4, but still Safe D.

So, in an average year, this map would produce 4 Democrats and 1 Republican.  Next, I'll show and alternative, less gerrymander-y map.

[Asian Nazi]

Here's the other map I drew this morning.  It doesn't quite correlate as well with natural communities, but is considerably more competitive.



Districts 4 and 5 are the same, but 1, 2, and 3 are changed. 

District 1 (blue) now stretches to the coast, taking with it the more liberal Birch Bay, Blaine, and Point Roberts, which were included in District 2 in the last map.  In exchange, the district loses some of the more conservative parts of the district to Districts 2 and 3.  It remains Safe R (it still voted 59.2-39.0 for McCain), but becomes less obnoxiously so. 

District 2 (green) loses its northern, more liberal towns and now extends out into some of the more conservative towns south of Lynden.   It moves from a likely D district to a lean R one (it only voted 51.3-46.7 for Obama), but remains the most racially diverse.

District 3 (purple) loses a bit of conservative territory to District 2, but gains the even more conservative Sumas and the surrounding area.  It moves from a likely D district to a lean D one (it voted 54.3-43.9 for Obama).

With this map, both Districts 2 and 3 should be competitive. 

In conclusion, the move from at-large elections to districts will likely help Republicans and coal terminal advocates.  However, the extent to which it does depends on how the map is drawn.  There will definitely be at least one safe Republican district based around Lynden, but the Ferndale and rural rando district can either be quite safely Democrat or lean towards the GOP depending on how the map is drawn.  The two at-large seats will probably lean towards the Democrats in most years, which will probably ensure that the Democrats will continue to control the County Council.  However, as previously stated, labor is strongly backing the coal terminal and Democrat does not necessarily equal anti-GPT.  The battle in Whatcom County will continue to be waged for the near future, but the lines behind which the elections surrounding the issue are fought will be put in the hands of those who get to draw them.

[muon2]

Nice work. I have the added appreciation of a week vacation this summer in your fine county so I spent a bit of time in Birch Bay and Bellingham as well as points in between.

I think your plan makes sense as it still maintains compact community areas, but it doesn't overly pack Pubs into one district. Your plan also better follows the Census subdivisions of the county, which can be viewed as a neural source for a split. It helps all plans that Bellingham is almost exactly 2/5 of the county population.

[Asian Nazi]

I had the pleasure of visiting Lynden for the first time ever today.  Beautiful town.  Not exactly a place I'd like to live in, but it was still great for a visit.  You can tell they take a lot of pride in their Dutch heritage and do quite a bit to preserve it.  I even heard some older people speaking Dutch!  I had a great lunch in a Dutch bakery and took some nice photos of their historic downtown district too.

[Asian Nazi]

Also here's an interesting article about the failed jail referendum, another issue which helps demonstrate the political cleavages of Whatcom County:

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/news/local/article45526722.html

They even included a precinct map!

[King of Kensington]

So "more jails" trumps "no tax increases"?

[Asian Nazi]

So "more jails" trumps "no tax increases"?

Apparently it does for some Republicans, though it seems the vote wasn't on 100% partisan lines.  Quite a few Democrats supported it, and there were definitely some Republicans opposed.  The margins in each region weren't as large as you would expect in a purely partisan vote.  But yeah, it seems law and order trumps what is honestly a very small tax increase for conservative voters here.  Maybe if it'd been a property tax increase, which would affect property-owning conservatives more, the vote would have looked different.

I also think the fact that the new jail would be in Bellingham made it easier for non-Bellinghamsters, Republicans and Democrats alike, to support it.  A lot of small liberal towns voted yes, though clearly the Lyndenites were most enthusiastic about it.  In the end Bellingham turnout was enough to kill it.  Never underestimate the NIMBY effect. 

Considering the closeness of the vote, I'd go as far as to say that our state having mail-in ballots might've been enough to make the difference here.

[Asian Nazi]

So it looks like imgur ate all of my images while I was away.  Sad.

Well here is the official district map that was approved a few days ago:

https://wa-whatcomcounty.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/17269

Should be 4-1 Democrats most of the time, but the coastal and mountain districts have been drawn to include enough GOP farmland area that they might be competitive in a good GOP year.

I don't really like the fact that the farmland district goes all the way to the city.  Pretty sure my old apartment is in it too, though the map isn't detailed enough for me to tell for sure. 

Overall they did a decent job.

[muon2]

So it looks like imgur ate all of my images while I was away.  Sad.

Well here is the official district map that was approved a few days ago:

https://wa-whatcomcounty.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/17269

Should be 4-1 Democrats most of the time, but the coastal and mountain districts have been drawn to include enough GOP farmland area that they might be competitive in a good GOP year.

I don't really like the fact that the farmland district goes all the way to the city.  Pretty sure my old apartment is in it too, though the map isn't detailed enough for me to tell for sure. 

Overall they did a decent job.

With Bellingham proper divided into two districts, there wasn't a lot else they could do with the eastern district.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So it looks like imgur ate all of my images while I was away.  Sad.

Well here is the official district map that was approved a few days ago:

https://wa-whatcomcounty.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/17269

Should be 4-1 Democrats most of the time, but the coastal and mountain districts have been drawn to include enough GOP farmland area that they might be competitive in a good GOP year.

I don't really like the fact that the farmland district goes all the way to the city.  Pretty sure my old apartment is in it too, though the map isn't detailed enough for me to tell for sure.  

Overall they did a decent job.

Myself and others made a point to complain about Cortata being placed into the Lynden districts at the public hearing, albeit to no avail.  Although Bellingham is a little to big to fit into exactly 2 whole districts, I would have likely sacrificed the Silver Beach area of Bellingham to the Mountain district instead, as to make it slightly less Republican.  This is because under the new plan, Republican endorsed county council candidate Kathy Kershner lost her countywide election by 800 votes last year, but carried 3 out of Whatcom County's 5 districts (winning the Mountian district by 8%, the coastal by about 10%, and the Lynden district by at least 40%).  So despite the fact that Republicans are complaining, the redistricting actually turned out to give them an unfair advantage due to the way Bellingham's Northern district was drawn.

[Asian Nazi]

So it looks like imgur ate all of my images while I was away.  Sad.

Well here is the official district map that was approved a few days ago:

https://wa-whatcomcounty.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/17269

Should be 4-1 Democrats most of the time, but the coastal and mountain districts have been drawn to include enough GOP farmland area that they might be competitive in a good GOP year.

I don't really like the fact that the farmland district goes all the way to the city.  Pretty sure my old apartment is in it too, though the map isn't detailed enough for me to tell for sure.  

Overall they did a decent job.

Myself and others made a point to complain about Cortata being placed into the Lynden districts at the public hearing, albeit to no avail.  Although Bellingham is a little to big to fit into exactly 2 whole districts, I would have likely sacrificed the Silver Beach area of Bellingham to the Mountain district instead, as to make it slightly less Republican.  This is because under the new plan, Republican endorsed county council candidate Kathy Kershner lost her countywide election by 800 votes last year, but carried 3 out of Whatcom County's 5 districts (winning the Mountian district by 8%, the coastal by about 10%, and the Lynden district by at least 40%).  So despite the fact that Republicans are complaining, the redistricting actually turned out to give them an unfair advantage due to the way Bellingham's Northern district was drawn.

Hey, good to hear from someone following this on the ground.  And yeah, the Republicans could definitely win a majority with this map under the right circumstances.  Including Cordata in the Lynden district was pretty nonsensical imo.  The images aren't showing up here anymore (at least for me) but I demonstrated that it's very easy to draw a more Democratic-friendly map that does a better job of preserving natural communities.  That said it's also easier to draw a worse map for the Democrats.  Overall I can totally understand why you're unsatisfied with the outcome.

[Asian Nazi]

With Bellingham proper divided into two districts, there wasn't a lot else they could do with the eastern district.

Oh, I should've been more clear with my post.  The problem Fuzzybigfoot and I have with the map is the Lynden district, which extends from Lynden to the northern Bellingham suburbs over a stretch of (heavily GOP) farmland.  The result might look better in terms of preventing packing, but it chops Bellingham itself and puts a large number of urban Democrats into a district that they will never be able to elect a representative from. 

The eastern district (southern Bellingham suburbs + mountains, foothills, and small towns) is actually pretty well drawn.  I'm glad they put Sumas in it instead of trying to include Nooksack.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So it looks like imgur ate all of my images while I was away.  Sad.

Well here is the official district map that was approved a few days ago:

https://wa-whatcomcounty.civicplus.com/DocumentCenter/View/17269

Should be 4-1 Democrats most of the time, but the coastal and mountain districts have been drawn to include enough GOP farmland area that they might be competitive in a good GOP year.

I don't really like the fact that the farmland district goes all the way to the city.  Pretty sure my old apartment is in it too, though the map isn't detailed enough for me to tell for sure.  

Overall they did a decent job.

Myself and others made a point to complain about Cortata being placed into the Lynden districts at the public hearing, albeit to no avail.  Although Bellingham is a little to big to fit into exactly 2 whole districts, I would have likely sacrificed the Silver Beach area of Bellingham to the Mountain district instead, as to make it slightly less Republican.  This is because under the new plan, Republican endorsed county council candidate Kathy Kershner lost her countywide election by 800 votes last year, but carried 3 out of Whatcom County's 5 districts (winning the Mountian district by 8%, the coastal by about 10%, and the Lynden district by at least 40%).  So despite the fact that Republicans are complaining, the redistricting actually turned out to give them an unfair advantage due to the way Bellingham's Northern district was drawn.

Hey, good to hear from someone following this on the ground.  And yeah, the Republicans could definitely win a majority with this map under the right circumstances.  Including Cordata in the Lynden district was pretty nonsensical imo.  The images aren't showing up here anymore (at least for me) but I demonstrated that it's very easy to draw a more Democratic-friendly map that does a better job of preserving natural communities.  That said it's also easier to draw a worse map for the Democrats.  Overall I can totally understand why you're unsatisfied with the outcome.

Luckily we still elect 2 members to our council via at-large elections, so the conservatives would have to sweep all three non-Bellingham districts and win one at-large to get a majority.  Personally I think that's a bit unlikely, since our county leans solidly Democratic.  But as you said, under the right circumstances....

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Btw that's actually the wrong map.  The Eastern district doesn't include Sumas or Everson or Nooksack, thankfully.

[Asian Nazi]

Btw that's actually the wrong map.  The Eastern district doesn't include Sumas or Everson or Nooksack, thankfully.

Do you have a link to the correct map?  Someone posted it on my Facebook feed the other day but I couldn't find it.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Btw that's actually the wrong map.  The Eastern district doesn't include Sumas or Everson or Nooksack, thankfully.

Do you have a link to the correct map?  Someone posted it on my Facebook feed the other day but I couldn't find it.

Here, this should work:

http://nwcitizen.com/entry?category=20