anyway, how can one defection stop the collapse of the government? Was there onoly a liikely one-vote margin?
Previously, we had these numbers of votes:
In favorLiberals: 131 + speaker (does not vote unless there is a tie)
NDP: 19
Caroline Parrish: 1
Total: 151 + speaker in favor
AgainstConservatives: 99
Bloq Quebecois: 54
Total: 153 in favor
UnsureChuck Cadman: 1 (likely to vote in favor)
David Kilgour: 1 (likely to vote against)
Total: 1 likely in favor, 1 likely against
If the independents vote in the way that they're deemed likely to, we will have, in total, the following:
In favor: 152 + speaker
Against: 154
The only way for the Liberals to win in this case is to get the vote of
both independents; otherwise, the budget would fail.
Now, however, with the defection of Stronach, we have the following:
In favor: 153 + speaker
Against: 153
So they only need
one independent to vote in favor of the budget for the Speaker to be able to break the tie, and Cadman has hinted that he is indeed likely to vote in favor. So, essentially, if Cadman does vote as he's expected to, Stronach will have indeed single-handedly saved the government.
