PA-16: Pitts retiring

[Miles]

Article.

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[Ebsy]

Democrats would only pick this one up in a wave.

[Gass3268]

Democrats would only pick this one up in a wave.

Yeah, way too much Lancaster in his district.

[136or142]

Likely candidates per Roll Call
http://atr.rollcall.com/pennsylvanias-joe-pitts-will-not-seek-re-election/?dcz=

With the seat open for the first time in 20 years, GOP operatives say they expect a contested primary. Names mentioned most are:

Lancaster County Commissioner Scott Martin, who announced in October he would seek the seat if Pitts were to retire. Martin’s announcement was the first big sign that Pitts was eyeing an exit from Congress after next year.
State Sen. Lloyd Smucker, whose state Senate district also includes parts of Lancaster County.
Former state Rep. John Bear, who did not run for re-election in 2012.
Chet Beiler, a Lancaster County Republican who lost a primary for lieutenant governor in 2010.
And Dan White, a businessman from Chester County.

With a name like Smucker, he has to be good.

[Mr.Phips]

Likely R.  This is one of those seats that Republicans really knew what they were doing when they drew it.  It keeps enough Democrats in it to keep PA-06 and PA-07 R-leaning, but retains enough Republicans to keep it out of reach for Dems.

[Maxwell]

Democrats should look at this district closely but with some distance - No Pennsylvania Republican won re-election in 2014 by less than Joe Pitts. Perhaps people in the district are growing tired of Pitts, but I'm thinking this is a district trending Democratic, and the right nominee could flip this district.

Whether that nominee exists is the question, but Democrats should at least search.

[windjammer]

Democrats should look at this district closely but with some distance - No Pennsylvania Republican won re-election in 2014 by less than Joe Pitts. Perhaps people in the district are growing tired of Pitts, but I'm thinking this is a district trending Democratic, and the right nominee could flip this district.

Whether that nominee exists is the question, but Democrats should at least search.

Well, this is the definition of Likely Rep I guess.

[Miles]

Smucker is running.

Democrats are really in a jam with this seat now.

[136or142]

Smucker is running.

Democrats are really in a jam with this seat now.

They're screaming like nuns and orphans. 
(Reference to the SNL original cast sketch parodying the Smuckers commercial.)

[Kingpoleon]

Beiler would make a good nominee, especially if he wants to run for Governor or Senator in 2018/2022.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sabato has quietly moved this from Safe R to Likely R:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-ratings-changes/#house

[TJ in Oregon]

Sabato has quietly moved this from Safe R to Likely R:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2016-ratings-changes/#house

Pretty standard move for an open seat and Sabato views incumbency as more important than it is. It would be hard to imagine this seat changing hands absent a scandal or wave.