If Carson were to fall from grace, who would get his supporters?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

With the news being reported that Carson has potentially lied multiple times about his life, he could be tarnishing his legacy and potentially alienating his base of support. In the event he starts to bleed support, who do they go to? Cruz? Trump? Or someone completely different ?

[Zache]

I think Fox polled this a couple days ago. I think Trump got the most.

[weixiaobao]

To multiple other people.  Because Carson attract a variety of supporters, his niche wasn't really in one place.  Though, I don't think Paul's supporters fell for him in the first place.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

To multiple other people.  Because Carson attract a variety of supporters, his niche wasn't really in one place.  Though, I don't think Paul's supporters fell for him in the first place.

Paul has supporters?

I've been assuming his poll numbers were the just people who hadn't been paying attention and thought his dad was running again.

[weixiaobao]

To multiple other people.  Because Carson attract a variety of supporters, his niche wasn't really in one place.  Though, I don't think Paul's supporters fell for him in the first place.

Paul has supporters?

I've been assuming his poll numbers were the just people who hadn't been paying attention and thought his dad was running again.

Paul has supporters that sympathetic to his cause.  Funnily enough, the non core Paul supporters went to Trump camp.  Even on sites like Rand Paul forum, a decent percentage of long time posters are speaking favorably of Trump and of course get into flame war with the other Paulites.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

To multiple other people.  Because Carson attract a variety of supporters, his niche wasn't really in one place.  Though, I don't think Paul's supporters fell for him in the first place.

Paul has supporters?

I've been assuming his poll numbers were the just people who hadn't been paying attention and thought his dad was running again.

Paul has supporters that sympathetic to his cause.  Funnily enough, the non core Paul supporters went to Trump camp.  Even on sites like Rand Paul forum, a decent percentage of long time posters are speaking favorably of Trump and of course get into flame war with the other Paulites.

If Rand wasn't in this race I would have been an ardent Cruz supporter, I was much more enthusiastic about Ron, but Rand irks me in the wrong way somehow.

[weixiaobao]

If Rand wasn't in this race I would have been an ardent Cruz supporter, I was much more enthusiastic about Ron, but Rand irks me in the wrong way somehow.

There is a strange conspiracy going around among the Paul camp right now, if you don't mind explain them to me.  Though I found the Rand sympathizers on this forum is way more reasonable and rational.  The conspiracy is that Cruz is in the race solely to took votes away from Paul.  lol, I am serious.  To some Paul supporters, the earth is literally revolve around the Paul family.

[Maxwell]

Most would go to Theodore Cruz, but a good chunk of it would push Huckabee back into the debate.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Cruz would get the most.

As Carson's supporters consist of a large bloc of religious conservatives, Huckabee would get a slice.  He would possibly get enough to get up to 8-10% if things went well.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If Rand wasn't in this race I would have been an ardent Cruz supporter, I was much more enthusiastic about Ron, but Rand irks me in the wrong way somehow.

There is a strange conspiracy going around among the Paul camp right now, if you don't mind explain them to me.  Though I found the Rand sympathizers on this forum is way more reasonable and rational.  The conspiracy is that Cruz is in the race solely to took votes away from Paul.  lol, I am serious.  To some Paul supporters, the earth is literally revolve around the Paul family.

I may get some flak from DeadPrez for this who knows, but that conspiracy started by the 'purists' in the 'libertarian' movement, even though most of the Paul's (mostly Ron here) supporters aren't libertarians but Paleoconservatives mixed in with the Tea Party crowd. Rand's support is mostly libertarian Republicans who will always support the most libertarian-ish Republican if not going to the LP candidate. I for one am not a 'pure' libertarian but a mix of conservative and libertarian, you can say I'm a libertarian-leaning conservative but more moderate than some of the people on the Paul forums hence why I never frequent them.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

They did a poll and Trump got the most by far, then Rubio.

[California8429]

Fiorina

[Vega]

Trump, but I must say it's interesting how they're tearing Carson apart (as they should), but Donald never got this much stuff on him by the media, and if he did, he rammed through it.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Fiorina

Wanting something doesn't make it true.

[I support Sanders]

Bobby Jindal

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Bobby Jindal

Not sure if Jindal would get a plurality, but I think that he would definitely benefit.

[Extrabase500]

They will vote for Trump, Cruz, or Rubio. His supporters seem to be socially conservative evangelicals and anti-establishment voters from what i've seen.

Also Fiorina is a complete joke and she will be gone soon look at how much she dropped in the polls.

[Hydera]

Fiorina

This was probably noticed before.

But there was a shift of voters who preferred trump to go towards Fiorina, then when attention shifted to Carson. The same amount of support strangely enough to Carson.

I'm guessing there is a small but significant pool of voters who seem easily swayed by the Media that fluctuates to whoever has their 15 minutes of fame.

[Mehmentum]

Fiorina

This was probably noticed before.

But there was a shift of voters who preferred trump to go towards Fiorina, then when attention shifted to Carson. The same amount of support strangely enough to Carson.

I'm guessing there is a small but significant pool of voters who seem easily swayed by the Media that fluctuates to whoever has their 15 minutes of fame.

I hadn't noticed that before.  If that's right, who these people go to will depend on the upcoming debate.  Cruz and Rubio look most likely.

[Extrabase500]

Fiorina

This was probably noticed before.

But there was a shift of voters who preferred trump to go towards Fiorina, then when attention shifted to Carson. The same amount of support strangely enough to Carson.

I'm guessing there is a small but significant pool of voters who seem easily swayed by the Media that fluctuates to whoever has their 15 minutes of fame.

Exacley. The only people that said they wanted Fiorina were people that like anyone who has their 10minutes and people who are anti-trump. Fiorina is not a serious candidate and is a complete and total joke.

She will be out before Iowa watch, or finish like Bachmann.

[Pandaguineapig]

Probably Cruz,Trump has been stuck around a ceiling of about 25% for a couple of months. Something his cheerleaders on the left won't admit

[weixiaobao]

Probably Cruz,Trump has been stuck around a ceiling of about 25% for a couple of months. Something his cheerleaders on the left won't admit

Let discount polls like YouGov (36%), Reuters (36.8%), Morning Consult (40%), and Gravis (40%).

At Trump's height, CNN at him at 32%, Fox at 26%, Monmouth at 30%, ABC/Wapo at 33%, Quinnipiac 28%, SurveyMonkey 29%, PPP at 29%, 33.5% at Emerson, 26% at Rasmussen, 27% at CBS, Zogby at 33%, Echelon at 32%, IBD at 28%, Fairleigh at 26%.

You do know the definition of a ceiling right?  When you said 25% is the ceiling, #s are not supposed to go over 25%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump, but Hilary's electability has just gone higher. Demise of Jeb and most of the establishment GOP like Kasich at thw hands of Trump. And now Carson. Not saying Trump cant win this but he"s slightly below her electability. Clinton will be 45th prez thanks to Trump.

[FLgirl]

This is an image Fox News put up from their latest poll answering this very question:

[Mr. Morden]

I feel like when people try to logic their way through questions like this (what other candidate is most like Candidate X, and thus would benefit from his demise?), they’re led astray more often than not.  Carson is the Evangelical identity politics candidate of the moment.  However, many voters sit in multiple factions of the party, and could well support someone totally different from him if he imploded.

Voters’ reasons for backing a candidate aren’t always so clear cut.  Sometimes they just like someone, who might well be completely different from the guy they supported last month, and then reverse engineer a justification for supporting him, once they’ve decided to do so.