What Are Your One Year Out Predictions?

[Lyin' Steve]

• These stories about his past will push Carson back to 15%, and he'll remain a merely modest factor for the rest of the campaign.
• Cruz will rise in his place as the outsider candidate to take on Trump.  He will challenge Trump in Iowa, but only half-heartedly, since he and Trump have been playing nice all year.
• The establishment and the monied interests rally around Rubio as these attacks on him fail to stick.  He begins spending tens of millions on ads to defeat Trump.
• Trump denounces Rubio as a slave to his super PAC donors and spends millions of his own money to knock him out.
• The media coverage given to the Trump-Rubio war pushes Cruz out of the limelight.  He gets 10% in Iowa to Trump's 35, Rubio 30, Carson 15, others 10.
• Trump also wins NH, SC, and NV by increasingly large margins over Rubio, and splits Super Tuesday with Rubio.
• Cruz drops out and endorses Trump.  Trump announces the formation of a joint Trump/Cruz ticket.
• With it now officially a two-man race most of the states end up being about 60-40 Trump as Rubio just isn't able to stand up to Trump, despite a litany of negative ads from all angles.
• As the primaries end, Trump has about 65% of the delegates to Rubio's 35%.
• Hillary breezes through Iowa, edges out Sanders in NH, dominates him in SC and NV.  He drops out and endorses her.  The primary is over in February and Clinton gets three months to build a positive image as a contrast to the dirty mudfighting going on in the Republican party.
• Trump and Cruz try valiantly to campaign against Clinton, but she deftly defeats them for weeks on end.  Republicans start to panic as polls come out showing Clinton winning by giant margins.
• The establishment cuts a deal with many of Trump's delegates and in a bloody floor fight at the convention, Mitt Romney becomes the 2016 nominee.  He selects Ohio Senator Rob Portman, who appears doomed in Ohio, as his running mate.
• Romney and Portman portray themselves as responsible stewards of government who will balance the budget, push the stock market up, and keep the trains running on time.  They attack Clinton as an irresponsible dreamer and needle her for the positions on social issues she took during the primary.
• Hillary brings out Bill to make the economic case for her and tries to tie Romney to the Republican house through Paul Ryan and Portman to the 2008 financial collapse due to his OMB tenure with Bush.
• All the debates are evenly matched.  Republicans win Ohio but aren't able to carry Florida or Virginia because Hillary picks Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, who spent a long time in South America on mission trips and has a keen understanding of the real issues affecting the hispanic community, as her running mate, carrying the latino vote by a similar margin as Obama in 2008.  Democrats win 51-48.

[ProudModerate2]

• The establishment cuts a deal with many of Trump's delegates and in a bloody floor fight at the convention, Mitt Romney becomes the 2016 nominee.

Obviously, this is where you lose us.
Please tell me you were trying to be funny.

[Illiniwek]

Hillary cruises to the nomination, dropping maybe a couple of states to Bernie. Hillary promises to take up little bits of the Bernie-mantle, so that Bernie will help her campaign. Hillary picks Tom Vilsack (my bold, wishful prediction) as her running mate.

Carson takes Iowa, Trump takes NH, Cruz cruises with the south and ends up with a plurality of popular vote nationwide. Rubio takes the delegate majority, and is nominated for president. Rubio wants to pick a VP like Kasich, but is forced by the right wing of the party to begrudgingly pick Cruz as his running mate.

At first Cruz looks like the much stronger choice for VP, as he is a younger, anti-establishment candidate, while Vilsack is an older, current member of the Administration. However, the public comes to see Vilsack as a very likable, former popular governor, whose Washington ties aren't that dirty as Ag. Secretary. The Clinton-Vilsack hopeful language sits better in the midwest than the Rubio-Cruz fiery, angry language.

Hillary ends up winning a close race, because the economy is doing well, Obama is not extremely unpopular, and the outrage over her emails has fizzled out everywhere except Fox News.

303-235

[wolfsblood07]

Very interesting, Governor Illiniwek.  Under your scenario, are you saying Rubio wins a lot of the big primaries and caucuses (New York, Florida, Michigan, Illinois, etc.) despite dropping both of the early states (Iowa and New Hampshire)?  

If you are right about Clinton winning the general election, I want to be listening to Rush Limbaugh the next day.  While I cry!

[Reaganfan]

I refuse to participate in this prediction thread. Not only is it all speculation, but this forum has become a bias-filled misrepresentation of American politics.

I read many posts and threads on the message board going into the elections one year ago and this past election last week. As a conservative, I felt extremely depressed.

I became convinced that Ohio was going to legalize marijuana, that Houston, Texas was going to pass the "Hero" Act, and that Jack Conway was going to comfortably win the Kentucky Governorship. While not everyone on here held those opinions, it sure seemed that way.

Of course none of that was true, it was another bad night for Democrats just like last year, but reading this forum, you'd never know it.

As a Republican, this forum brings my hopes down...even when we win.

[Asian Nazi]

I refuse to participate in this prediction thread. Not only is it all speculation, but this forum has become a bias-filled misrepresentation of American politics.

I read many posts and threads on the message board going into the elections one year ago and this past election last week. As a conservative, I felt extremely depressed.

I became convinced that Ohio was going to legalize marijuana, that Houston, Texas was going to pass the "Hero" Act, and that Jack Conway was going to comfortably win the Kentucky Governorship. While not everyone on here held those opinions, it sure seemed that way.

Of course none of that was true, it was another bad night for Democrats just like last year, but reading this forum, you'd never know it.

As a Republican, this forum brings my hopes down...even when we win.

You seem like you need a hug.

[ProudModerate2]

I refuse to participate in this prediction thread. Not only is it all speculation, but this forum has become a bias-filled misrepresentation of American politics.

I read many posts and threads on the message board going into the elections one year ago and this past election last week. As a conservative, I felt extremely depressed.

I became convinced that Ohio was going to legalize marijuana, that Houston, Texas was going to pass the "Hero" Act, and that Jack Conway was going to comfortably win the Kentucky Governorship. While not everyone on here held those opinions, it sure seemed that way.

Of course none of that was true, it was another bad night for Democrats just like last year, but reading this forum, you'd never know it.

As a Republican, this forum brings my hopes down...even when we win.

You seem like you need a hug.

d32123, LMAO.

Reaganfan, Do you understand that by posting, you just participated in this thread.

[Comrade Funk]

I refuse to participate in this prediction thread. Not only is it all speculation, but this forum has become a bias-filled misrepresentation of American politics.

I read many posts and threads on the message board going into the elections one year ago and this past election last week. As a conservative, I felt extremely depressed.

I became convinced that Ohio was going to legalize marijuana, that Houston, Texas was going to pass the "Hero" Act, and that Jack Conway was going to comfortably win the Kentucky Governorship. While not everyone on here held those opinions, it sure seemed that way.

Of course none of that was true, it was another bad night for Democrats just like last year, but reading this forum, you'd never know it.

As a Republican, this forum brings my hopes down...even when we win.

[Figueira]

Clinton/Booker vs. Rubio/Kasich. I'm too tired to do a more interesting prediction.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

• The establishment cuts a deal with many of Trump's delegates and in a bloody floor fight at the convention, Mitt Romney becomes the 2016 nominee.  He selects Ohio Senator Rob Portman, who appears doomed in Ohio, as his running mate.
• All the debates are evenly matched.  Republicans win Ohio but aren't able to carry Florida or Virginia because Hillary picks Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, who spent a long time in South America on mission trips and has a keen understanding of the real issues affecting the hispanic community, as her running mate, carrying the latino vote by a similar margin as Obama in 2008.  Democrats win 51-48.

If the establishment tosses out a winning Trump in favor or Romney, half the party will revolt, and either vote 3rd party or not vote. Hillary wins in a landslide, and the entire US political party system shifts over the next couple elections as the "far-right" and "establishment" Republicans are permanently split.