Most likely best case vs worse case scenario

[DS0816]

Notes (for the Demcratic side): Take the 332 electoral votes for re-election of Barack Obama in 2012. The next bellwether state is North Carolina. Next up are both Arizona and Georgia—their margins tend t be five points or less in spread (in 2012, there was less than a two-point spread). Following that pair are Indiana and Missouri. And if all of these are being carried by a prevailing Democrat, so, too, with the state of Montana. (Nebraska #02 is probably also getting carried with that group.)

[DS0816]

Wulfic’s Democratic map suggests what I mentioned. I just wanted to state why that would be the case.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

clinton/biden 371-167 bush/kasich

trump/ernst 338-200 clinton/warner

[Panhandle Progressive]

Anyone here who has Republicans with an electoral maximum above the Democrats is a either out of touch with the current state of presidential politics or a deluded Republican. Democrats will have a nominee (Hillary) who the party will easily coalesce behind. Republicans will have a much more difficult time uniting the party this cycle. Hillary's best outcome would be Obama 2012 states + NC for 347 electors. The Republican nominee's best result would assume a huge national recession (highly unlikely based on current trajectory) within the next year. Under these circumstances, (and with a moderate nominee) Republicans would win back FL, OH, and VA but Democrats would hold CO, IA, NV. Hillary would still win the presidency 272-266. This would mirror the 2000 election closely, but with the Dem becoming the president-elect this time.

Under likely conditions based on expected trajectory:
Dems will have a strong finish winning between 303 and 347 electors.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Floor for Clinton is 272 and ceiling is probably ariund 320 electors

I say floor for Bernie is 257 and ceiling is 290. He is much morw liberal than Clinton is.

[YaBoyNY]

Best Case GOP: 408-130

Best Case DEM: 375-163

you're such a massive hack for someone who calls out dem hacks regularly

new jersey, michigan, and washington flipping before missouri flips to the dems

just lol

[Coolface Sock #42069]

LOL at people who think there's any way Arkansas could go Democrat.

[MATTROSE94]

Best Case GOP: 408-130

Best Case DEM: 375-163

Looks about right. The only thing is that I would probably flip Illinois and Washington to the Democrats and maybe Connecticut to the Republicans. Even though both Washington and Illinois went Democratic in 2012 by a smaller margin that Connecticut, both states seem to be much more inelastic overall. I agree with you on Missouri, as Hillary Clinton is only polling at about 36-40% in the state. Also, Missouri is a much less elastic state today than it was 20 years ago, so even Donald Trump would likely still carry it by a solid margin.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Best for Republicans:

Best for Democrats:

Hmmm... the GOP flips states that haven't voted R in decades (MI, PA, WI, MN) and holds NH and flips ME-2?  Unlikely. If ME-2 is gone, NH is too. For ALL of the upper-Midwest states to fall, that would be a complete PV blood-bath.

[Panhandle Progressive]

Under these circumstances, (and with a moderate nominee) Republicans would win back FL, OH, and VA but Democrats would hold CO, IA, NV.

And you know this because...?

Easy, because 3 years ago Obama won each of these by at least 5%, which would allow enough wiggle room for Hillary to hold them. FL, OH, and VA were all under 4%, which could be flipped next year under extreme circumstances. But only extreme.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Best for Republicans:

Best for Democrats:

Hmmm... the GOP flips states that haven't voted R in decades (MI, PA, WI, MN) and holds NH and flips ME-2?  Unlikely. If ME-2 is gone, NH is too. For ALL of the upper-Midwest states to fall, that would be a complete PV blood-bath.

Wouldn't you think the GOP would take New Mexico before Michigan as well?

[kansasdemocrat]

GOP 295
DEM 243

DEM 347
GOP 191

These are the most likely best and worst-case scenarios... likely being the operative term

[Jerseyrules]

I also think Donald Trump is not even close to the Republican's worst potential candidate.

Honestly, everything he's already said means that it literally can't get any worse.  He's hit his floor for the general election.  And an average spread of -4.5% against Hillary isn't half bad, (yeah yeah it's been the month from Hell but still, we're talking about Trump)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html