GOP candidates ahead in MN
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:06:41 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  GOP candidates ahead in MN
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: GOP candidates ahead in MN  (Read 5704 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2015, 08:11:32 PM »


Different ball-game with an incumbent. Surely people have been through this stuff before.
Logged
Higgs
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,581


Political Matrix
E: 6.14, S: -4.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2015, 09:47:21 PM »



You don't think Minnesota's PVI moves to the right at all come 2016?
Logged
RFayette
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,952
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: November 10, 2015, 12:38:31 AM »



You don't think Minnesota's PVI moves to the right at all come 2016?

I'm not sure, but I have no doubt that it will move to the right relative to Wisconsin. Tongue
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: November 10, 2015, 06:40:33 AM »

MN is definitely more competitive than NH, although that ain't sayin' much LOL.

Btw: Rubio leads Clinton 57-38 among men in this poll lol.

Stop. 1972 vs 2000?
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,976


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: November 10, 2015, 08:28:01 AM »

The DFLers in this poll all have healthy approvals despite the supposedly R leaning sample. Hillary has a huge problem with men, whites, and independents that has been evident in many polls.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 10, 2015, 09:20:13 AM »

Minnesota doesn't really swing; the US swings far more. Contrast the last two times in which Minnesota was really close -- when it was the only Democratic win of a whole state or the barest win for the Republican and the 1988 election... to the closest recent elections to Democratic blowouts:


1964  27  23
1972   -5   23
1984  <1  18
1988    7   8
1992  12    5
1996  17    9
2008  10    7

LBJ did only 4% better than the national average in Minnesota, which suggests that Minnesota wasn't especially partisan that year by the national standard. But both McGovern and Mondale did 17% or 18% better than the national average in Minnesota, where Minnesota was respectively the 49th best and 50th 'best' states for Nixon and Reagan.

1988 is an anomaly in that the election was held as the Dukakis campaign crashed. Dukakis won Minnesota by 7% despite losing by 8% nationally. Minnesota was Dukakis' fifth-best state (he won only ten states).


Bill Clinton did 7% and 8% better than the national average in Minnesota. Of course that could also reflect that Ross Perot gutted the Republican vote for President in Minnesota more than in other states.

Barack Obama won Minnesota decisively in 2008 -- but he also won as impressively as any Democrat did.

Some other elections: Eisenhower won Minnesota twice, and he actually won Minnesota by a larger margin than the nationwide vote in 1956. That says more about Dwight Eisenhower as a good match for Minnesota. Except for the High Plains and Mormon Country, Obama won about what Eisenhower won, which suggests that Obama won the swing constituencies that Eisenhower won. But that suggests how different the partisan affiliations are by state.

...

About some close elections:


1960  2  <1
1976  12  2
2000   2  <1
1988    4   2

Minnesota is slightly more D than the national average in D blowouts (well, there really was only one D blowout) and in close elections. 1976 is an anomaly in that respect, probably because Carter did so badly in most northern and western states. In R blowouts, Minnesota seems to be one of the last D holdouts.

If Minnesota is leaning R this time, then its political culture is changing rapidly as West Virginia did last decade.  Such is what the Survey USA polls say. I would believe that about as much as polls that suggest that Democrats are taking over Kansas. Neighboring Iowa is a swing state, and Wisconsin seems to be breaking strong D.

 

    
Logged
SUSAN CRUSHBONE
evergreen
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,735
Antarctica


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 10, 2015, 01:40:28 PM »


#unskewedpolls
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,999
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 10, 2015, 01:58:59 PM »

I think Minnesota will be closer than most red avatar hacks here do, but this poll is probably junk.
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,139
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 10, 2015, 02:07:05 PM »

No way Low Energy Loser Jeb is leading in Minnesota.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 10, 2015, 02:44:25 PM »

Why would a state that voted solidly to re-elect Dayton and Franken in the 2014 midterm slaughter turn around and vote Republican in 2016?

Easy poll to dismiss.
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: November 10, 2015, 03:17:30 PM »

Why would a state that voted solidly to re-elect Dayton and Franken in the 2014 midterm slaughter turn around and vote Republican in 2016?

Easy poll to dismiss.

Dayton and Franken weren't seriously challenged.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,782
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: November 10, 2015, 03:48:11 PM »

With Dems likely heavily invested in MN.2, and strong union support, MN being a true battleground is purely noise. Dems should win the Green state, which is like OR and MN before winning WI, which isnt a tossup, which it should.
Logged
King
intermoderate
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,357
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: November 10, 2015, 04:04:49 PM »

Why would a state that voted solidly to re-elect Dayton and Franken in the 2014 midterm slaughter turn around and vote Republican in 2016?

Easy poll to dismiss.

Dayton and Franken weren't seriously challenged.

And why weren't they seriously challenged?
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,578
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: November 10, 2015, 04:15:16 PM »

Why would a state that voted solidly to re-elect Dayton and Franken in the 2014 midterm slaughter turn around and vote Republican in 2016?

Easy poll to dismiss.

Dayton and Franken weren't seriously challenged.

And why weren't they seriously challenged?

Because MN republicans would rather sit in their safe house seats/retirement because they fear a narrow loss. And, yeah, that would have happened with Franken. But Dayton only won by 5.5% against his gadfly opponent, which leaves me not completely sure that he was completely safe. After all, Downballot it was a mixed at best night for dems - they held MN-7/8 but MN-1 was closer than expected, and they lost the state house.
Logged
RFayette
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,952
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: November 10, 2015, 08:00:50 PM »

Why would a state that voted solidly to re-elect Dayton and Franken in the 2014 midterm slaughter turn around and vote Republican in 2016?

Easy poll to dismiss.

Dayton and Franken weren't seriously challenged.

And why weren't they seriously challenged?

Because MN republicans would rather sit in their safe house seats/retirement because they fear a narrow loss. And, yeah, that would have happened with Franken. But Dayton only won by 5.5% against his gadfly opponent, which leaves me not completely sure that he was completely safe. After all, Downballot it was a mixed at best night for dems - they held MN-7/8 but MN-1 was closer than expected, and they lost the state house.

Still, King has a good point here.  I don't think anyone takes these poll numbers at face value......if the GOP struggled with a state in 2014, then winning it will be very hard in 2016 for them.  Any idea of the GOP becoming competitive in Oregon vanished after the results came in last November.  I think the same applies to a lesser extent in Minnesota.  Nonetheless, I think Minnesota will trend Republican somewhat, and certainly is a better target for Repubicans than Wisconsin at the moment (thanks, Walker).
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,838
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: November 11, 2015, 02:32:20 PM »

Minnesota and Michigan might vote to Wisconsin's right this time around.  That's all I'm reading into this.

Neither will this time around.

Michigan will not in the foreseeable future.

Minnesota might in the next several cycles.
Logged
mencken
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,222
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: November 11, 2015, 02:33:53 PM »

Minnesota and Michigan might vote to Wisconsin's right this time around.  That's all I'm reading into this.

Neither will this time around.

Michigan will not in the foreseeable future.

Minnesota might in the next several cycles.

Minnesota did in 2008.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,782
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: November 11, 2015, 02:44:53 PM »
« Edited: November 11, 2015, 02:48:59 PM by OC »

I think MI, WI, NH, Pa usually votes votes 4 points towards Dems and MN votes 6 points towards Dems in presidential years. Give or take Iowa a point or two to Dems.

Wisc not being a tossup is not going to make MN one, no matter what polls are saying now. Otherwise, Pa, which R's were leading in over the summer, wouldn't have closed so rapidly, in Clinton's favor.
Logged
Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,695
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: November 11, 2015, 10:22:33 PM »

With Dems likely heavily invested in MN.2, and strong union support, MN being a true battleground is purely noise. Dems should win the Green state, which is like OR and MN before winning WI, which isnt a tossup, which it should.
I agree about Minnesota probably not being a battleground, but down-ballot races do not swing statewide ones.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: November 12, 2015, 09:16:01 AM »

Minnesota and Michigan might vote to Wisconsin's right this time around.  That's all I'm reading into this.

Neither will this time around.

Michigan will not in the foreseeable future.

Minnesota might in the next several cycles.

Minnesota did in 2008.

Barring a landslide, Republicans are going to get at least 44% of the vote in a binary election for President. Getting so much as 48% of the vote in such an election is difficult.

Minnesota has elected Republicans as Governors and Senators, and one district managed to elect the infamous (by liberal standards) Michelle Bachmann.

"Next few cycles"? Given enough time,just about anything can happen. West Virginia used to be reliably D except in Republican blowouts and Virginia used to be reliably R except in the 1964 blowout. Oh, how times can change! Of course, so can the coalitions behind the Parties. 
Logged
MATTROSE94
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,803
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: -6.43

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: November 12, 2015, 01:04:58 PM »

I think MI, WI, NH, Pa usually votes votes 4 points towards Dems and MN votes 6 points towards Dems in presidential years. Give or take Iowa a point or two to Dems.

Wisc not being a tossup is not going to make MN one, no matter what polls are saying now. Otherwise, Pa, which R's were leading in over the summer, wouldn't have closed so rapidly, in Clinton's favor.

According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, Michigan is the only state you mentioned that can be classified as D+4 and New Mexico is actually D+4 as opposed to D+6. Wisconsin is D+2 and Pennsylvania, Iowa, and New Hampshire are only D+1. According to my definition, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire are definitely toss-up states and Michigan and New Mexico are lean Democratic states as opposed to safe Democratic states.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,782
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: November 12, 2015, 02:04:59 PM »

They also have OH, leans GOP, too.

Pa, WI, MI, NV& NH are 3-4 pts more Dem

NM, OR & MN are 5-6 more Dem

IA & CO are,1-2 pts more Dem

Va & OH are dead even

That's why Dems can win between 272 &303 electors
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: November 12, 2015, 04:31:17 PM »

Here is the last PPP poll involving Minnesota -- from June. It is dated to the extent that it does not include Carson, Fiorina, or Trump.

No way has Minnesota drifted so far and so fast as the Survey USA poll shows in Minnesota.

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 49%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 47%
Chris Christie .................................................. 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 51%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 50%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 49%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 48%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/clinton-ahead-in-minnesota.html#more

OK, so it is about time for PPP to poll Minnesota.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,842
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: November 13, 2015, 02:15:03 AM »

Note also that the poll was released about a week after the polling was completed. Such is always suspicious.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.07 seconds with 12 queries.