GOP candidates ahead in MN

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota will be more Republican than the US at large only if Hillary Clinton wins the state by 58-42 while the rest of the US goes 60-40. Minnesota does not swing much -- contrast Colorado, which does.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota doesn't really swing; the US swings far more. Contrast the last two times in which Minnesota was really close -- when it was the only Democratic win of a whole state or the barest win for the Republican and the 1988 election... to the closest recent elections to Democratic blowouts:


1964  27  23
1972   -5   23
1984  <1  18
1988    7   8
1992  12    5
1996  17    9
2008  10    7

LBJ did only 4% better than the national average in Minnesota, which suggests that Minnesota wasn't especially partisan that year by the national standard. But both McGovern and Mondale did 17% or 18% better than the national average in Minnesota, where Minnesota was respectively the 49th best and 50th 'best' states for Nixon and Reagan.

1988 is an anomaly in that the election was held as the Dukakis campaign crashed. Dukakis won Minnesota by 7% despite losing by 8% nationally. Minnesota was Dukakis' fifth-best state (he won only ten states).


Bill Clinton did 7% and 8% better than the national average in Minnesota. Of course that could also reflect that Ross Perot gutted the Republican vote for President in Minnesota more than in other states.

Barack Obama won Minnesota decisively in 2008 -- but he also won as impressively as any Democrat did.

Some other elections: Eisenhower won Minnesota twice, and he actually won Minnesota by a larger margin than the nationwide vote in 1956. That says more about Dwight Eisenhower as a good match for Minnesota. Except for the High Plains and Mormon Country, Obama won about what Eisenhower won, which suggests that Obama won the swing constituencies that Eisenhower won. But that suggests how different the partisan affiliations are by state.

...

About some close elections:


1960  2  <1
1976  12  2
2000   2  <1
1988    4   2

Minnesota is slightly more D than the national average in D blowouts (well, there really was only one D blowout) and in close elections. 1976 is an anomaly in that respect, probably because Carter did so badly in most northern and western states. In R blowouts, Minnesota seems to be one of the last D holdouts.

If Minnesota is leaning R this time, then its political culture is changing rapidly as West Virginia did last decade.  Such is what the Survey USA polls say. I would believe that about as much as polls that suggest that Democrats are taking over Kansas. Neighboring Iowa is a swing state, and Wisconsin seems to be breaking strong D.

 

    

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota and Michigan might vote to Wisconsin's right this time around.  That's all I'm reading into this.

Neither will this time around.

Michigan will not in the foreseeable future.

Minnesota might in the next several cycles.

Minnesota did in 2008.

Barring a landslide, Republicans are going to get at least 44% of the vote in a binary election for President. Getting so much as 48% of the vote in such an election is difficult.

Minnesota has elected Republicans as Governors and Senators, and one district managed to elect the infamous (by liberal standards) Michelle Bachmann.

"Next few cycles"? Given enough time,just about anything can happen. West Virginia used to be reliably D except in Republican blowouts and Virginia used to be reliably R except in the 1964 blowout. Oh, how times can change! Of course, so can the coalitions behind the Parties. 

[pbrower2a]

Here is the last PPP poll involving Minnesota -- from June. It is dated to the extent that it does not include Carson, Fiorina, or Trump.

No way has Minnesota drifted so far and so fast as the Survey USA poll shows in Minnesota.

Q4 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb
Bush, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 49%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 39%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Q5 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Chris
Christie, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 47%
Chris Christie .................................................. 37%
Not sure .......................................................... 16%

Q6 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted
Cruz, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 51%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 35%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

Q7 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 50%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 40%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Q8 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rand
Paul, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 49%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 38%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Q9 If the candidates for President next time were
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Tim
Pawlenty, who would you vote for?
Hilary Clinton .................................................. 48%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/06/clinton-ahead-in-minnesota.html#more

OK, so it is about time for PPP to poll Minnesota.

[pbrower2a]

Note also that the poll was released about a week after the polling was completed. Such is always suspicious.