I think MI, WI, NH, Pa usually votes votes 4 points towards Dems and MN votes 6 points towards Dems in presidential years. Give or take Iowa a point or two to Dems.
Wisc not being a tossup is not going to make MN one, no matter what polls are saying now. Otherwise, Pa, which R's were leading in over the summer, wouldn't have closed so rapidly, in Clinton's favor.
According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, Michigan is the only state you mentioned that can be classified as D+4 and New Mexico is actually D+4 as opposed to D+6. Wisconsin is D+2 and Pennsylvania, Iowa, and New Hampshire are only D+1. According to my definition, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire are definitely toss-up states and Michigan and New Mexico are lean Democratic states as opposed to safe Democratic states.
