Does high turnout hurt populist/anti-establishment parties?
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  Does high turnout hurt populist/anti-establishment parties?
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Author Topic: Does high turnout hurt populist/anti-establishment parties?  (Read 649 times)
Beezer
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« on: November 10, 2015, 04:55:58 AM »

I was wondering if there was any hard evidence to what extend a surprisingly high turnout hurts populist parties. Does anybody know of any studies or analyses of this topic?
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Extrabase500
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« Reply #1 on: November 10, 2015, 02:43:16 PM »

No it benefits them.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: November 10, 2015, 03:03:10 PM »

In Austria, higher than usual turnout benefits mostly SPÖ and FPÖ - because their voters are sometimes hard to mobilize for elections. In the case of the SPÖ, citizens with a migrant background and in the case of the FPÖ: young voters. The higher the turnout, the higher the chance that young people are voting, which benefits the FPÖ. In the Upper Austria and Vienna state elections we saw that increased turnout helped the FPÖ and SPÖ alike. On the other hand, ÖVP and Green voters have generally high turnout.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2015, 07:28:54 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2015, 07:31:07 PM by DavidB. »

In the Netherlands high turnout works to the advantage of the PVV (and, less so, the SP). Low turnout works to the advantage of SGP, CDA and ChristenUnie (and, less so, the VVD).

Generally it is protest voters who are inclined to vote for populist parties and who are also inclined to stay home. High turnout is often an indicator of the fact that even many people have voted who otherwise stay home, of whom a disproportional amount are protest voters who vote for "populist" parties.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2015, 10:32:30 PM »

I was wondering if there was any hard evidence to what extend a surprisingly high turnout hurts populist parties. Does anybody know of any studies or analyses of this topic?

That idea seems counter intuitive. Since populist parties tend to draw their voters from low turnout groups (Young, less educated, poor etc.), one would think that they would do well in high turnout elections.
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