Re: 2016 Senate Ratings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

http://atr.rollcall.com/10-vulnerable-senators-2016/

Roll call list Pat Toomey, Ayotte, Kirk & Johnson most vulnerable

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

No way is Toomey less safe than Portman. Otherwise, pretty close. All incumbents besides Kirk and Johnson are favored at least slightly. The biggest toss-ups are the two open seats in Nevada and Florida.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Ayotte seems the 3rd most likely to go, since Hassen has entered she seems to have the early advantage

[Mr. Illini]

Roll Call continues deluding themselves in Ohio

[Ebsy]

If Vitter loses the governor's race, he will be the most vulnerable Republican in the Senate, though he will probably fall to someone from his own party before a Democrat.

[/]

While the only feasible Republican pickup is Nevada (and Colorado if they get really, really lucky), I'd say that the Democrats have at least a 60% chance in Wisconsin and Illinois. They also have a very good chance in Florida and Ohio, and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania definitely aren't out of the question. They can pick up Louisiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, and Arizona if they get lucky as well.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Dems win OH, Pa, NH, CO, NV, IL & WI. Defeating Toomey is a must win, with McGinty.

Give or take FL, due to Grayson presence on ballot.

But, AZ/IN/MO/La are longshots, especially with KY resultd, not necessarily a sign showing that R's are goinv to win in 2016, but a realignment. Still giving dems hope.
 

[Xing]

No way is WI a toss-up while NH is Tilt R. Generally I agree with their list of incumbents, but I don't see how Paul is vulnerable at all. If Vitter loses the gubernatorial race, he definitely needs a spot on that list. If nothing else, he'd be very vulnerable to a primary challenge.

[Kingpoleon]

188 EVs: Siding R
133 EVs: Siding D
063 EVs: Toss Up
/284 EVs

154 EVs: Not in play

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dem
NV, CO, NH, WI, IL, FL

TOSSUP
Pa & OH

[MATTROSE94]

Safe Republican:
Alabama
Arkansas
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah

Lean Republican:
Georgia
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
North Carolina

Tossup:
Alaska (only if Joe Miller ends up primarying Lisa Murkowski and if Mark Begich is the Democratic Senate nominee)
Arizona
Colorado
Florida
Missouri
Nevada
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Lean Democrat:
California (because of its top two primary system)
Illinois
New Hampshire
Wisconsin

Safe Democrat:
Connecticut
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
Oregon
Vermont

[Coolface Sock #42069]

While the only feasible Republican pickup is Nevada (and Colorado if they get really, really lucky), I'd say that the Democrats have at least a 60% chance in Wisconsin and Illinois. They also have a very good chance in Florida and Ohio, and New Hampshire and Pennsylvania definitely aren't out of the question. They can pick up Louisiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, and Arizona if they get lucky as well.

LOL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk, Johnson & Ayotte are gone and FL and NV are marginal seats, so Dems are just 1 seat shy if Clinton wins in Nov.