2016, The Year of Enigmas - Yet Another 2016 TL

[Bigby]

Sanders Files Candidacy, Gets Full Access in 40 States, Write-In in 5 More.

June 3rd, 2016.

After pulling out of the Democratic primaries, Sanders announced his independent run for the Presidency. Though he will informally run as "Independent," Sanders and his supporters have agreed to officially file him in for the new "Sanders for America" Party. The Vermont Senator's ground game has been impressive, as he was able to quickly garner ballot access in 45 states. However, as third party candidates often find out, there were some complications. 5 states, IL, NE, DE, OK, and LA, have placed Sanders as a Write-In only, and Delaware, Oklahoma, and Louisiana have stated their intentions to keep Sanders as a Write-In in those states. North Dakota, Wyoming, and South Carolina have not yet determined whether or not Sanders will gain ballot access in those states. Officials in New Mexico, Mississippi, and D.C. have outright denied Sanders ballot access. Senator Sanders will continue to fight to gain full access in these remaining states, as will his supporters. Sanders and his advocates are criticizing both parties, claiming that "the Democrats and the Republicans are coming together any way they can to stop our momentum." Though Sanders has access to a total of 509 electoral votes, it behooves him to try and gain access in all states and D.C.

Notable Events of June 2016.

(To fill the otherwise empty gap, I have compiled a list of minor, indirectly related events of June. These events are not a direct part of the Presidential race, but will impact it in at least some way and are notable enough to be of concern.)

June 6th: Congressman Luis Gutierrez is still being investigated by the FBI for the attempted assassination of Senator Bernie Sanders. The hitman who revealed Gutierrez's involvement has been identified as a Tijuana-born man named Hernando Nieva. Nieva has pled guilty, and as a naturalized American citizen, will be incarcerated in federal prison. Nieva has revealed that he works directly for a group called "Los Ejecutores Raciales,"or The Racial Enforcers, a radical Mexican gang that "promotes self-interest of Mestizos and all brown Latinos against the Gringo menace," according to Nieva. The group supposedly has ties with La Raza. La Raza is denying any involvement with Gutierrez, Nieva, or Los Ejecutores Raciales whatsoever, but many are questioning the group nonetheless.

June 9th: Governor Nathan Deal (R - GA) has endorsed State Representative Matt Hatchett's (R - Laurens County) recent bill, the "College Scholarship and Grant Reform Act," informally known as the "Hatchett Act,"that if passed, will restructure how scholarship and grant money is given to college students in the state of Georgia. Hatchett stated that, "this bill will toss race and ethnicity out of the affirmative action entirely, leaving income-levels, GPA, and SAT/ACT scores as the primary and most important factors for receiving financial aid." Hatchett was very honest about the UC Berkeley controversy being the tipping point for what he considers this necessary reform. "I consider it obvious that UC Berkeley shows how 'reverse racism' is just racism by any other name. What kind of person denies a struggling student financial aid simply because they no longer fit under your arbitrary definition of what a minority is? There are bright, innovative students of all races and backgrounds that need our help to succeed, yet they're denied financial aid because of an innate physical trait that they cannot control." Many Democrats within the state are voicing their opposition, but the bill is expected to pass thanks to Republican control in Georgia and Deal's endorsement.

June 15th: Congressman Luis Gutierrez has confessed involvement in the plot against Sanders. He has also resigned from his seat. The Congressman will await trial, with the date set for sometime in September. Gutierrez has claimed duress. According to him, Los Ejecutores Raciales threatened his family, and he was forced to fund the hitman for the organization. As such, he will plead "not guilty" and try to prove his claims of duress.

June 20th: The leaders of the Hadi government in Yemen have been captured by the Revolutionary Committee. After a failed attempt to recapture the capital Sana'a, the forces of the incumbent government were surrounded by the Shia rebels. Mohammed Ali al-Houthi has been named President of Yemen by his rebel forces, and is now setting up a Houthi government. Iran, China, Russia, and Cuba have already moved to recognize the Houthi government, while the US, Britain, and Israel have already announced their intentions to consider the Houthis as a rogue state. al-Houthi has sentenced the Hadi government to life imprisonment, but has promised to spare their lives.

June 27th: The North Korean propaganda station in North Korea has gone silent over the radio waves. Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un has not been heard from in over a week. No one in or outside of North Korea knows exactly what is happening. In other news, the Dow closed at 16,800, a full 1,100 down from when it opened today. This summer is expected to be as chaotic for the stock market as Summer 2015 was.

Independence Day General Election Polls! RCP Aggregates for July 1st-4th:

National (Rasmussen, YouGov, Quinnipac):

Marco Rubio (R): 49%
Joe Biden (D): 41%
Bernie Sanders (I): 5%
Undecided: 5%

Ohio (Vox Populi (R), PPP (D), Reuters):

Marco Rubio: 45%
Joe Biden: 38%
Bernie Sanders: 8%
Undecided: 9%

Florida (PPP (D), SurveyUSA, USAToday):

Marco Rubio: 51%
Joe Biden: 37%
Bernie Sanders: 8%
Undecided: 4%

Iowa (Clemson, CBS, Des Moines Register):

Joe Biden: 46%
Marco Rubio: 43%
Bernie Sanders: 6%
Undecided: 5%

Nevada (CNN, Fox News, Quinnipac):

Marco Rubio: 48% - TIE
Joe Biden: 48% - TIE
Bernie Sanders: 3%

(States not shown will be if requested!)

Presidential Candidates Announce VP Picks!

All three major candidates have announced via press statement who their VP nominee will be. Their choices will be included in the transcriptions from the statements:

Marco Rubio: "My fellow Americans, we need a Vice President who is knowledgeable, involved, and willing to stand for our American values. I believe that man is Congressman Dave Brat of Virginia. I believe that Congressman Brat has America's needs at heart, not just his own party's. After all, he has shown us that he willing to oppose both Democrats AND Republicans when they are in the wrong. That's why I trust him to be my Vice President."

Joe Biden: "America, we need a Vice President who defies the status quo. There are groups, such as blacks, Hispanics, and women, who want to be free, but the Republicans won't let them be. It's time to show the right that diversity always wins, and my VP choice exemplifies that. I'm choosing HUD Secretary Julian Castro of Texas for that reason. Viva Biden, Viva Castro, Viva America."

Bernie Sanders: "The Democrats and the Republicans are nothing but liars, crooks, and thieves. It's time for a fresh, people-oriented voice in the White House. I know someone who should have a voice, but they don't: Eleanor Holmes Norton of D.C.! I am choosing her as my Vice Presidential pick. Together, we will reform the system so the ninety-nine percent is no longer dominated by the one percent!"

With the three parties having their tickets formed, and none of the conventions being brokered, the conventions will go as planned. As Sanders is running on an independent ticket, Sanders has hand-chosen Matthews Arena in Boston, MA to hold his convention from August 1st through the 4th.

Up Next: The Republican National Convention, the Democratic National Convention, Sanders' Convention.

[/]

Can you show VT polls and any others that Sanders may have a chance of winning in? Thanks!

[Bigby]

Can you show VT polls and any others that Sanders may have a chance of winning in? Thanks!

Absolutely. Remember that polls are not entirely reflective of the actual outcome, and will inevitably change over time. Sanders is going to be an obvious thorn in Biden's side, obviously.

Special Release Polls for July 1st - 4th:

Our readers here at RCP have expressed an interest in polling from Vermont and other states where Sanders is performing the best. These polls are concurrent with the swing state polls we publicized.

Vermont:

Joe Biden: 40%
Bernie Sanders: 25%
Marco Rubio: 35%

Oregon:

Joe Biden: 44%
Marco Rubio: 42%
Bernie Sanders: 10%
Undecided: 4%

Washingston:

Joe Biden: 46%
Marco Rubio: 40%
Bernie Sanders: 9%
Undecided: 5%

Colorado:

Joe Biden: 43% - TIE
Marco Rubio: 43% - TIE
Bernie Sanders: 9%
Undecided: 5%

Minnesota:

Marco Rubio: 43%
Joe Biden: 42%
Bernie Sanders: 12%
Undecided: 3%

Judging by these early polls, Sanders performs the best in traditionally or growing liberal states. Of the states polled, including swing state polls, 60% of his voter base comes from normally apathetic college students. Another 30% comes from progressive voters who view Sanders as preferable over Biden, and 10% come from remaining demographics. This could explain the current tie in Colorado and the one point advantage Rubio currently has in Minnesota. RCP prefers to remain unbiased, but if current trends continue, it is unlikely that Rubio carries Minnesota even with a double-digit Sanders victory in that state.

[Bigby]

The 2016 Republican National Convention.

July 18th - 21st, 2016 - Cleveland, Ohio.

The 2016 Republican National Convention, held at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, will be a quick coronation of Senator Marco Rubio for President. With Ted Cruz's withdrawal in May, Rubio has enough delegates to be nominated on the first ballot. Congressman Dave Brat, Rubio's VP choice, is also largely uncontested. Though Christie did not concede his delegates to Rubio, the Governor has already endorsed him for President for the general election and is in the Rubio column at the convention. The event will go from Monday through Thursday, starting with the nomination process, minor speakers, the Presidential and Vice Presidential candidates, and then the Keynote Speaker.

Presidential Choice, First (and Final Ballot) - Senator Marco Rubio of Florida!

Rubio won with ease, being the presumptive nominee since May. Christie's delegates remained static, and some delegates wrote-in names or abstained like normal. Regardless, Rubio had the majority needed.

Marco Rubio - 1769 Delegates
Chris Christie - 215 Delegates
Greg Abbott - 19 Delegates
Ted Cruz - 17 Delegates
Rob Portman - 12 Delegates
Abstain - 9 Delegates

Marco Rubio's Speech:

Rubio, as usual, addressed his audience in his articulate, hopeful manner. The main message of this speech was that he would serve the people of American as an objective enforcer, not an empty suit or a "pompous king." Though he did not mention Obama by name with this remark, he coyly replied that "one of the most revolutionary aspects of a Rubio Presidency will be using executive orders as the Founders intended, not to override legislation." He also stated that he will prove how he is able to get things done, as he has unified the Establishment and Tea Party. He ended his speech with a promise to restore American security, both abroad and at home.

"... with a unified American people, we can rise from the ashes like a Phoenix. Yes America, we are suffering, but it should not be so. It will not be so. I will work with Congress to tackle and overcome our many albatrosses, whether it be Los Ejecutores Raciales, the Houthi government in Yemen, a nuclear Iran, the schizophrenic economy, or anything else for that matter. We will triumph over them all, together. I am the man this country needs to reverse these past eight years of catastrophe, and I am honored to be that man!"

Vice Presidential Choice, First (and Final Ballot) - Congressman Dave Brat of Virginia!

Likewise, Congressman Brat was nominate for Vice President without any issue. 95 percent of delegates cast their vote behind Brat, who Rubio had successfully pushed as part of his unifying force of the Tea Party and Establishment. Three other candidates received a handful of delegates: Greg Abbot (12 delegates), John Kasich (10 delegates), and Brian Sandoval (5 delegates.) Only 2 delegates abstained. Dave Brat is the obvious winner of the Ballot.

Dave Brat's Speech:

Although Jon Huntsman would later be chastised by some Tea Party pundits for saying this, the Utah Governor remarked how "Brat is one of the only Tea Party spokesman who can be articulate, thoughtful, and reasonable in political discourse." Most put it in more polite terms, but that was indeed the consensus of Brat's speech. While more openly partisan than Rubio, Brat held his own, even getting applause from the most moderate members of the GOP. He touted his economic and constitutional knowledge as the reason why he suits the Vice Presidency the best. He promised to aid Rubio as President. To him, "the Vice Presidency may be 'not worth a bucket of warm spit,' to some like John Nance Garner, but only if you take a cynical, bitter attitude towards it. Sure, it is nowhere near as glamorous as the Presidency, but it is a vital portion of our government nonetheless. I am honored to serve as VP, and that is why I am a natural choice to fill that role."

"America, we need a man who understands economics, the Constitution, and governance in general if we are going to fix the mass we're in. I am that man. Yes, Rubio and I agree that I am a unifying force within the party, but that's not solely because of my political positions. I was an economics professor, a good one at that. I've always been civic-minded, even when I wasn't a Congressman. The last thing we need is a Vice President who is uneducated, subservient, and dispassionate. I am none of those things, America. It is because of my expertise, knowledge, and vigor that Rubio asked me to be his right-hand man. Now, let's win this election and restore America to greatness!"

Keynote Speaker: Brian Sandoval.

The Keynote Speaker for this year's RNC is Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval. Although this was, as he admitted, an uncomfortable topic for many Republicans, his speech primarily tackled the issue of race in America. However, as he also stated, he saw it as a conservative, and that conservative answers will solve racial issues much better than liberal ones. He blasted the Democrats for being silent on race issues that "did not benefit their narrative." Indeed, his tone took a very personal one in regards to the UC Berkeley controversy. To Sandoval, this was proof that the Democrats "are selectively ignorant about real racism." His message was that the Republicans want to treat everyone equally, while the Democrats will promise you with special gifts and identity politics, only to throw you away when you are no longer useful to them. Many Democrats and liberal pundits angrily responded to Sandoval's speech, but the Republican base gave Sandoval their blessing with his speech. He received one of the loudest cheers during the convention.

"You know, at one point, I was considered Hispanic regardless of any other factors. It is because I am Hispanic. It used to be that if you were Hispanic, you were Hispanic, no matter what you looked like. Latino heritage is Latino heritage, no ands, ifs, or buts. I cannot change my Latino heritage, but I am proud of it, so why would I? Sadly, the Democrats of 2016 do not see it that way. To them, White Hispanics are no longer Hispanic. On whose authority, I dare ask?! I try to compromise and meet the other isle, but when you tell me that I cannot claim my own heritage solely because you want to arbitrarily reshape political discourse, the gloves come off. Democrats are warping their own affirmative action policies. It is quite sad, really. This whole focus on dividing by race they have merely proves that they do not care about America as a whole. Well, the Republicans want to unify. The Republicans care about all Americans, not just some subsets of Americans. That is why we are going to win this year!"

Unexpected Speaker: Jim Webb.

Of the many speakers to attend the convention, none expected a Democrat - Jim Webb. Well, at least at first. When Webb spoke, much of the crowd cheered, giving him the approval that a speaker needs to be seen as valid. Webb claimed that "the party left him, but he was glad to leave it back." Though he did not change party labels, he promise to endorse and vote for the Rubio/Brat ticket over the Biden/Castro one.

"Instead of just saying 'the party left me,' I'll have the courtesy to inform y'all why. Even as they complain that Republicans refuse to compromise, the Democrats crucify their own for toting the party line. Sure, it can get ugly at times, but at least you hear differences within the Republicans. The minute you get off of the Democratic machine's teat, you're a labelled a racist, a sexist, or whatever middle school-grade insult they can muster up. I'm tired of it. My well-being can't take any of this. That's why the party left me, because I am unwilling to play the game of being another liberal drone. My policies, my thoughts, my votes are my own; they aren't dictated to me by Obama, Biden, or even any Republican figure. I am voting for Rubio out of my own heart, as it should be."

Thus ends the 2016 Republican Convention. As the incumbent party, the Democrats will hold their convention next Monday, June 25th. Theirs will end on July 28th, giving them four days just like the GOP.

Up Next: The Democratic National Convention.

[Enderman]

One must wonder what Eric Cantor is thinking right now. The guy he lost to in the Primary is now the VP nominee for another person who was ripped at because he supported Immigration Reform. None the less, I also have a question, what moved Rubio to pick Brat as his VP? If he was trying to lock up the Base vote, there's quite a list of people he could have picked. (Nikki Haley, Marsha Blackburn, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Jeff Flake) Why risk a little known, one term Congressman who defeated that one HML, instead of someone else?

[Bigby]

One must wonder what Eric Cantor is thinking right now. The guy he lost to in the Primary is now the VP nominee for another person who was ripped at because he supported Immigration Reform. None the less, I also have a question, what moved Rubio to pick Brat as his VP? If he was trying to lock up the Base vote, there's quite a list of people he could have picked. (Nikki Haley, Marsha Blackburn, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Jeff Flake) Why risk a little known, one term Congressman who defeated that one HML, instead of someone else?

I'll admit that it was partially personal choice. Plus the image of Cantor going mad that you just supplied makes it even more worth it. In the mean time, what do you think of Castro and Norton being picked by Biden and Sanders?

[Enderman]

One must wonder what Eric Cantor is thinking right now. The guy he lost to in the Primary is now the VP nominee for another person who was ripped at because he supported Immigration Reform. None the less, I also have a question, what moved Rubio to pick Brat as his VP? If he was trying to lock up the Base vote, there's quite a list of people he could have picked. (Nikki Haley, Marsha Blackburn, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Jeff Flake) Why risk a little known, one term Congressman who defeated that one HML, instead of someone else?

I'll admit that it was partially personal choice. Plus the image of Cantor going mad that you just supplied makes it even more worth it. In the mean time, what do you think of Castro and Norton being picked by Biden and Sanders?

I must say, all of the VP picks are quite intriguing. I wonder how their chemistry will go once on the debate stage. Here's hoping for a Brat/Sandoval vs Gillibrand/Castro election. That is, if you were planning for this to go to 2024.

[Bigby]

One must wonder what Eric Cantor is thinking right now. The guy he lost to in the Primary is now the VP nominee for another person who was ripped at because he supported Immigration Reform. None the less, I also have a question, what moved Rubio to pick Brat as his VP? If he was trying to lock up the Base vote, there's quite a list of people he could have picked. (Nikki Haley, Marsha Blackburn, Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Jeff Flake) Why risk a little known, one term Congressman who defeated that one HML, instead of someone else?

I'll admit that it was partially personal choice. Plus the image of Cantor going mad that you just supplied makes it even more worth it. In the mean time, what do you think of Castro and Norton being picked by Biden and Sanders?

I must say, all of the VP picks are quite intriguing. I wonder how their chemistry will go once on the debate stage. Here's hoping for a Brat/Sandoval vs Gillibrand/Castro election. That is, if you were planning for this to go to 2024.

I plan on at least finishing the first term of whoever gets elected, but let's take this one election at a time.

Democratic Convention will be posted either tonight or tomorrow, most likely tonight since interest in this TL has increased.

[Bigby]

The 2016 Democratic Convention.

July 25th - 28th, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Much like the Republican Convention, the Democratic one will be a simple coronation of the candidate on the First Ballot. However, the Wells Fargo Center is haunted by a spectre this week, and that spectre's name is Bernie Sanders. Sanders pledged his delegates within the primary to Biden, giving him the status of presumptive nominee. However, Sanders' independent run announcement has the Democrats on edge. Even with that factor, and other factors such as the uncertain economy and the recent foreign policy disasters, the Democrats are putting on a triumphant face. Biden will act with the utmost confidence.

Presidential Choice, First (and Final) Ballot - Vice President Joseph Biden of Delaware!

With Sanders pledging his delegates to Biden before he withdrew to run third party, Biden has been the presumptive nominee since June. He has the majority of delegates. As always, a few delegates abstained or wrote in a few names. Though West Virginia and Nebraska voted before Sanders' concession, the chaos caused by the assassination attempt caused the Democrats to not factor in those state delegates. No unpledged delegates endorsed a candidate due to the originally chaotic nature of the race; all listed delegates are pledged ones.

Joe Biden - 2852 Delegates.
Jim Webb - 57 Delegates.
Bernie Sanders - 30 Delegates
Kirsten Gillibrand - 25 Delegates
Abstain - 19 Delegates
Jerry Brown - 8 Delegates

Joe Biden's Speech:

Even with all of the trouble facing the Democrats, Biden was lively and optimistic. For his own benefit, he did not let the uncertain situation deter him from celebrating his victory. He promise to preserve the forms passed under Obama, most notably Obamacare. Though conservatives sneered at this, he also promised to "fight against the Republicans' reactionary plans against women, minorities, and the poor." While being an obvious liberal standard-bearer, he did not shy away from railing against Sanders. He reminded voters that "Sanders should have our sympathy, but not our support. A vote for Sanders is a vote to hand over the Executive Branch to Marco Rubio." He ended his speech with a reminder that he will continue Obama's legacy, but "he was his own man." He also reiterated his one-term pledge.

"I am a proud Democrat, but Sanders shows us how I am the real middle-ground in this election. The Republicans continue to slip towards the far-right. Sanders, as good of a man he is, is running a far-left campaign that will only scare people away from the progressive message. Yes, I will work with Republicans, but I am the candidate who will ensure that our triumphs are not reversed. If you want them to be, vote for Sanders. But if you want to ensure your future, if you want to not give up everything you've fought for over the past eight years, vote for me."

Vice Presidential Choice, First (and Final_ Ballot, HUD Secretary Julian Castro of Texas!

Secretary of Castro was nominated with a clear majority. However, he only received 70 percent of all delegates. 20 percent went to a "Draft Jerry Brown" movement. Though Brown himself was supportive of Biden and Castro both, the delegates who had voted for Brown as VP felt that Castro "would only heighten the fires of recent racial tensions." They failed to block Castro's nomination, and debate was ended when Brown himself, who was in attendance, announced his support for Castro for the sake of the party's unity. Only 6 delegates abstained, and three voted for Hillary Clinton.

Julian Castro's Speech:

Castro focused on race. Normally, Democrats enjoy shaping discourse over race, but many in the audience later admitted that "Castro was teetering on a fine line." Still, his speech received much applause, almost as much as Biden's. The less controversial part of his speech was about his own experience as a Hispanic in Texas. Although he used the term "Mestizo," he discussed how despite being Cuban-American, he "defied stereotypes that were determined to lock he and his brother success. But those were overcome." What made his time controversial was the discussion of the UC Berkeley controversy, the Hatchett Act in Georgia, and the presence of Los Ejecutores Raciales. His main message here was that "if we refuse to tackle these issues because it makes people uncomfortable, then the Republicans dominate the narrative and we let them win against us." He received praise at the convention itself, but many commentators expressed discontent online. Castro and Biden defended the speech over Twitter.

"Let us take for example Congressman Luis Gutierrez. I used to consider the man a friend, an ally, a shining beacon in the desolate sea that is politics. His involvement against Senator Sanders changed all that. Yes, it is a sad fact, but we cannot let one man's, or even one group's, actions warp our judgement. Gutierrez and Los Ejecutores Raciales are just a slither of the Latino community. We should not be silent while the Republicans use this to discriminate against Latinos! If we do, they will win, and they will undo our amnesty efforts that provide Latinos the freedom and better life they deserve. I will not let that happen. We will not let that happen. Yes, prosecute these extremists, and yes, legally punish those who harm others, but do not conflate them with an entire group."

Keynote Speaker: Hillary Clinton.

Although her "entitled" gaffe suck her own Presidential prospects, the Democrats remained on cordial terms with Clinton. She was even keynote speaker at the convention. She gave her full support to Biden and the Democrats. However, she had an obviously sulky tone the entire speech. She did not admit to it, but many pundits, both liberal and conservative, remarked how "she felt that she should have been the main attraction, and it showed." She did not discuss policy and legacy as much as Biden and Castro, but gave her their blessing against the Republicans. She also announced that she would campaign alongside Biden, should he so accept. She received a warm welcome, at the very least.

"You know, I may not be the Presidential nominee, but I'm going to fight like I am. Even though I'm not the main star, I want us to win, so there is no point in being a sore loser. We need Biden in there a lot more than we need Rubio, and I realize that. I'm in this for all of us; I have to be. So let's when this thing. A President Biden sounds like the best option, and that's because he is."

Unexpected Speaker: Howard Dean!

The Democrats made plans for the National Chair to speak, as normal. However, DWS was nowhere to be seen. She was not even mention. The word "Chairwoman" was never spoken once either. In fact, everyone was surprised when Biden announced "the Democratic National Chairman." More shocking was that Howard Dean came to the stage. He received a warm round of applause when he announced that he has returned to his position after so many years. In his speech, he announced his strategy to beat Rubio and the Republicans. He also pledged to only continue serving as Chairman if Biden won the election.

"My fellow Americans, if we're going to win this election, we need experience. Biden offers that at the Presidential level, and I offer that at the ground game. We are a party of winners, and we're going to win big! Sanders and Rubio have nothing on us! I am confident, yes, but this is grounded in reality. We have policies, the Republicans don't. We have a message for all Americans, the Republicans don't. We have a clear, anger-free mindset, the Republicans don't. We will win, the Republicans won't!"

Dean made sure to not scream energetically during his speech.

Up Next: The Sanders' Convention.

[Bigby]

The 2016 Sanders for America Convention.

August 1st - 4th, 2016 - Boston, Massachusetts.

The multipurpose arena of Matthews Arena hosted the Sanders for America 2016 Convention. Although Sanders was running as an independent, he had an attendance, while not quite as big as the Democrats or Republicans, that was still gargantuan. The convention was confirmation that Sanders, while not polling massively, would remain a thorn in the side of the Democrats. Before the actual convention, Sanders announced equally big news: Illinois, Nebraska, and Oklahoma had given Sanders full ballot access rather than write-in only. Equally big was the expansion of his total map. South Carolina and D.C., the latter likely due to Norton's influence, had granted Sanders full ballot access, while Wyoming and North Dakota ceded write-in access. Only Mississippi and Mew Mexico denied Sanders any access whatsoever.

Presidential Choice, First (and Final) Ballot - Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont!

Very unsurprisingly, Sanders won the first ballot without any dissenters or abstainers. He was confirmed by an audience vote, unanimously.

Bernie Sanders' Speech:

Sanders was willing, and demonstrably so, to attack both parties. He blasted both parties for "catering to Wall Street and Big Business rather than the middle and lower classes." When he attacked the Republicans, he attacked them for "being Koch cronies and trying to enforce standards that see as 'American' on unwilling minorities." When he attacked Democrats, he attacked them for "promising reform, but either never giving needed reform or outright neutering reform when they actually get in office." He remained somewhat positive on Obama, but did not refrain from pulling the punches on Biden. "He claims to want to continue Obama's legacy, but he is already ceding to the Republicans! Some say Obama was too compromising; they haven't met Biden." Like the Democrats, he did not hesitate to grill Rubio. "And Rubio, he wants to have it both ways: he wants to tame the Establishment and Tea Party wings into some 'semi-palatable' monster!" It was apparent that Sanders was running in his own right.

"The fat cats are winning, and they're winning because neither party cares about you, the American people! Biden, Rubio, Chaffee, literally all of them, does the label matter when it's really the same flavor? ... That's right, it doesn't! We need a President who fights for the little guy, and that President is me! I will get us universal healthcare, free college, and every other right the West gives its people! We cannot allow ourselves to be barbarians forever!"

Vice Presidential, First (and Final) Ballot - Eleanor Holmes Norton of D.C.!

Likewise, Norton was chosen without any major opposition. No one abstained, but during the voice call, a few other names were tossed around. Jerry Brown, Elizabeth Warren, Barbara Boxer, and Mike Michaud all received a few votes, but the decision to nominate Norton was overwhelming.

Eleanor Holmes Norton's Speech:

Norton was a little less specific with her criticisms than Sanders. As the Democratic "Congresswoman" of D.C., she did not want to be as direct against what was technically still her own party. As Sanders is running equally against both parties, she also did not name the Republicans by name as much either. If Sanders is the red oni, then Norton is the blue oni. She was very polite, concise, and statesmanlike during her speech.

"America, we're facing a critical choice. We can either choose to continue the failed policies that have landed us where we are, or we can choose to fix our problems and fix them well. No one apart from Sanders and I have offered the solutions that actually matter. Yes, we need to work with both sides, but there is more to the government than the legislative branch. The executive branch needs to play a more active role.  As Vice President, I would be an active voice for the common man."

Keynote Speaker: Tom Hayden.

It was well-known to even the casual observer that Sanders is a progressive, but Tom Haydem being his keynote speaker was yet another confirmation of that fact. Hayden was outspokenly liberal in his speech, perhaps moreso than Sanders. He riled the base at the convention, simply put. However, many pundits argue that while it is positive for Sanders to establish a vanguard of a progressive base, centrists and conservatives will definitely ignore Sanders should he continue to send such a far-left message. Either way, Hayden further cemented Sanders' campaign on the left.

"We've accomplished a lot under Obama. We repealed DADT, we got out of Iraq, we got healthcare reform passed... I could go on and on. Of course, it wasn't all passed because of Obama - It was you, the people, who got the good fight fought. But if we falter, all of that will be undone. Republicans are passing more Right-to-Work Laws in formerly pro-union states, Georgia is voting on a law that would 'make college financial aid more egalitarian,' tomorrow; we know that this is a euphemism for racist intentions. The new Republican Speaker of House, Raul Labrador, plans to get Rubio's immigration reforms passed so they can deport mestizos and selectively allow only whiter Latinos into the country with 'merit-based' immigration! We Democra- Sanders supporters must stop this! Vote for Sanders!"

Sanders preferred not to comment on the last-minute word swap.

Unexpected Speaker Jesse Ventura!

Ventura had promised to endorse either Sanders or Trump should they be the mainstream nominees of their respective parties. With Trump long gone after Pancho's failed assassination attempt, and Sanders own failed assassination sending him third party, that technically absolved Ventura of his promise. Regardless, Ventura has endorsed Sanders' independent bid. Ventura looked significantly more professional than he has been, shaving his head and readopting his mustache. Although he looked more presentable, it was apparent that his politics were still outside of the mainstream. Being a fiscal conservative, he focused on social issues at the convention. He still received much applause, putting him in some sync with the Sanders campaign.

"I'll tell you why I support Sanders. We have the TSA groping us 'in the name of freedom.' We have the NSA watching us while outright s[inks]ing on the 4th Amendment. We still have Guantanamo Bay open, proving that some people, as we'll say, lie right to our faces as usual. The Republicans and Democrats want to maintain this status quo, but Sanders does not. He wants to actually reform. That's why I am voting for Sanders this year."

Up Next: Senate, House, and Governor Updates, Post-Convention Polls, Status of the Hatchett Act.

[Bigby]

(Since I will be busy for the rest of the night, this weekend, and possibly next week, I will go ahead and provide updates for the Senate, House, and Governor races. I also retconned Sanders' convention some by changing the keynote speaker, since I apparently forgot that Owen Jones is British. It's fixed now.)

Senate 2016:

LEGEND: Tossup (Green), Lean (30%), Likely (50%), Safe (70%)

Retiring Incumbents (and Winning Replacements):

The following incumbents have opted not to run. With the primaries over in each state, the winning replacements will be named right beside the incumbent names.

Boxer (D - CA), replaced by Loretta Sanchez
Rubio (R - FL), replaced by David Jolly
Isakson (R - GA), replaced by Rob Woodall
Coats (R - IN), replaced by Todd Young
Vitter (R - LA), replaced by John Fleming
Mikulski (D - MD), replaced by Donna Edwards
Reid (D - NV), replaced by Cortez Masto

Primaried Incumbents:

These incumbents chose to run again, but were primaried by challengers. The winners will be named beside the losing incumbents.

Murkowski (R - AK), primaried by Joe Miller
John McCain (R - AZ), primaried by Kelli Ward
Mark Kirk (R - IL), primaried by Joe Walsh

Synopsis: The map is overall very uncertain, with the Republicans more on edge than the Democrats. Previous Tossups, such as Nevada and Florida, have moved to the Republicans due to more favorable circumstances. In Nevada, Heck has simply polled better them than Masto, but within the margin of error. In Florida, Jolly is consistently beating Grayson, but Murphy has run third party due to Grayson's victory in the Democratic primary, recreating the 2010 race all over again. The Republicans have been weakened in Alaska and Arizona due to Tea Party insurgencies, but Alaska is at least Lean GOP while Arizona is anyone's game. Republicans in Wisconsin and Ohio are facing Tossups, while Hassan has moved ahead of Ayotte to make New Hampshire a Lean DEM state. The two Likely D states, Illinois and California, are Likely DEM for differing reasons. A worsening Kirk was primaried by Walsh to preserve the Republican Party's chances, but the damage has already been done. In California, the original Democratic favorite, Kamala Harris, was indicted for another ethics investigation. She withdrew, and Congresswoman Sanchez won in her stead. Fmr. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger decided to run in November of 2015, and won the Republican primary with 60% of the vote. While Schwarzenegger has gotten Sanchez to the mid-50's in polling, Sanchez is still the expected winner. Finally, three non-incumbents in heavily Republican states, Woodall (GA), Young (IN), and Fleming (LA), are only winning Likely and not Safe, they are still highly expected to beat Bishop, Hill, and Landrieu respectively.

Governors 2016:

LEGEND: Tossup (Green), Lean (30%), Likely (50%), Safe (70%)

Non-Running Incumbents:

The following incumbents have either retired or been primaried out. Their replacements will be named beside them.

Jack Markell (D - DE), replaced by John Carney
Mike Pence (R - IN), primaried by Steve Buyer
Jay Nixon (D - MO), replaced by Chris Koster
Jack Darlymple (R - ND), replaced by Drew Wrigley
Maggie Hassan (D - NH), replaced by Colin Van Ostern
Peter Shumlin (D - VT), primaried by Sue Miner
Earl Ray Tomblin (D - WV), replaced by Natalie Tennant

Synopsis: For the Governorships, it is the Democrats with higher worries. Delaware, Oregon, and Washington are expected to go Democratic as usual. However, Bullock in Montana is within the margin of error, and the presence of Phil Scott and Sue Miner in Vermont makes it too close to call there. The Democrats are still running competitively in West Virginia, but Bill Cole is expected to gain the state for the GOP. The Democrats are worried about losing the open holes in Missouri and New Hampshire. Chris Sununu is gaining on Van Ostern quickly, to the point of leading and barely exceeding the margin of error in polls. Koster and Kinder are neck and neck in Missouri, but the state's recent right-to-work law being passed over Nixon's veto and Rubio's strong showing in the state might be sufficient coattails to secure a Kinder win. Indiana is a potential pickup for the Democrats, though it is currently considered Lean GOP as the unpopular Pence has been primaried by Buyer. The Democrats nominated John Gregg, whose social conservative might turn away the liberal base. In North Carolina, it is a Lean GOP race with McCrory hoping to beat Roy Cooper. North Dakota and Utah are Safe GOP.

House 2016:

For the House, only seats that are sufficiently contested or are expected to switch will be listed to conserve time and space. Seats in bold are seats where the incumbent is running for re-election.

Republicans (246): TX-23 (Hurd, Lean GOP), MN-02 (Kline, Lean DEM), IA-01 (Blum, Tossup), IA-03 (Young, Lean GOP), IL-10 (Dold, Uncertain), VA-02 (Rigell, Likely DEM), VA-10 (Comstock, Lean GOP), PA-08 (Mike Fitzpatrick, Lean GOP), CO-06 (Coffman, Tossup), NY-19 (Gibson, Tossup), NH-01 (Guinta, Lean GOP), ME-02 (Poliquin, Lean DEM), VA-07 (Brat, Lean GOP), FL-26 (Curbelo, Lean GOP), FL-13 (Jolly, Safe DEM), FL-10 (Webster, Tossup), NV-02 (Heck, Lean GOP), NV-04 (Hardy, Likely DEM)
Democrats (188): IA-02 (Loesback, Lean DEM), FL-02 (Graham, Safe GOP), FL-18 (Murphy, Likely GOP), AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick, Lean GOP), CA-07 (Bera, Lean GOP), GA-02 (Bishop, Tossup), CT-05 (Esty, Leam DEM), MN-08 (Nolan, Tossup), MN-07 (Peterson, Likely GOP), NE-02 (Ashford, Likely GOP), MD-06 (Delaney, Tossup), CA-36 (Ruiz, Tossup)

Synopsis: Though more GOP seats are potentially up for grabs than Democratic ones, the Democrats have more of an uphill battle. Even if all 18 contested Republican seats went to the Democrats, the Republicans would have 228 seats, enough for a small but clear majority. Meanwhile, if the Democrats lost all 12 of their contested seats, the Republicans would gain a majority of 258, further cementing their sizable majority and breaking yet another historical record. Ultimately, what makes the Republicans the party that has to fight to preserve more districts is that they have already won so many previous districts; the 2014 wave put many Republicans in not-so-Republican seats. The Democrats have far less non-safe seats. Originally, even more GOP seats were contested, but the more orderly and in-sync nature of the Labrador Speakership compared to the Boehner Speakership has increased Republican confidence and happiness, and thus has helped to ensure that more Republican seats stay Republican. In Florida and Virginia, the recent redistricting cases have greatly shifted the previous rankings. FL-02 and FL-13 were so radically changed that the Democrats in 02 and the Republicans in 13 have simply capitulated already, basically swapping the two seats between the two. FL-18 is likely to return to the GOP field, with Murphy running against Grayon and Jolly in the Senate and Allen West trying once again to win that district. FL-10 and FL-26 have the chance to flip, but currently both Republican candidates are holding their own. In Virginia, the Democrats have the potential to make new gains with the new map. VA-02 is all but assured to go Democrat with the new map including Hampton, Newport News, and Norfolk into Rigell's district. This move does benefit some Republicans, such as strengthening Forbes and Wittman, but Rigell definitely loses his district. Comstock's district is now redder, but she still has the odds in her favor. While Brat's district is still rather GOP-friendly, he has withdrawn from the Congressional race to focus on becoming Vice President. Eric Cantor has run again, winning an uncontested primary, but faces a resentful voting bloc. Finally, there are two strange cases in otherwise normal seats: GA-02 and IL-10. In GA-02, Bishop has retired to run for the Senate, leaving his seat open. His successor, Mayor Robert Reicher of Macon, is unpopular with many blacks who live in the district. In IL-10, the Tea Party and Progressive challengers against Dold and his Democratic rival have filed for independent bids, putting the district's election in utter chaos. In general, it is expected that the Republicans hold onto the House, but by how much is currently unknown.

Up Next: Post-Convention Polls, the Hatchett Act, and a Surprise for Gutierrez.

[Bigby]

Post Convention Polls, RCP Average:

August 8th, 2016.

With the 2016 National Conventions over, the pollsters have begun to conduct state polls to see who is now ahead or behind. All polls are aggregates of Fox News, CNN, Quinnipac, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA.

National:

Marco Rubio: 48%
Joe Biden: 39%
Bernie Sanders: 9%
Undecided: 4%

Ohio:

Marco Rubio: 48%
Joe Biden: 41%
Bernie Sanders: 6%
Undecided: 5%

Florida:

Marco Rubio: 52%
Joe Biden: 40%
Bernie Sanders: 5%
Undecided: 3%

Iowa:

Marco Rubio: 48%
Joe Biden: 46%
Bernie Sanders: 5%
Undecided: 1%

Nevada:

Joe Biden: 47%
Marco Rubio: 46%
Bernie Sanders: 6%
Undecided: 2%

Pennsylvania:

Marco Rubio: 48%
Joe Biden: 45%
Bernie Sanders: 5%
Undecided: 2%

New Hampshire:

Joe Biden: 42%
Marco Rubio: 39%
Bernie Sanders: 14%
Undecided: 5%

Synopsis: Rubio and Biden have both lost a tiny fraction of their support to Sanders. While Sanders is gaining votes, they are mostly in very liberal states. Ultimately, this hurts Biden more than it hurts Rubio. Though not to a significant degree, Sanders' performance in the swing states has lowered, mostly due to his worsening performance with moderates and independents. While labor union members were flirting with Sanders, many who watched the conventions felt that Sanders "was too urban-focused." Sanders' progressive message is one most attractive to college students and urban residents, hence his rise in areas such as Las, Vegas Nevada, Minneapolis, Minnesota, and New York City. Despite the leftist message of Sanders siphoning more votes from Biden than Rubio, Sanders has become an obstacle for Rubio in New England. Though the Republicans were neck and neck in New Hampshire and Maine-02, Sanders' wave of normally apathetic voters has increased the liberal tilt of these places. Though this puts Rubio in no electoral danger, this deprives him of 5 EVs should Sanders GOTV operation in these areas continue to benefit Biden.

Hatchett Law Passes in Georgia! Goes Into Affect Jan. 2017!

Atlanta, Georgia - August 10th, 2016.

After two months of debating, amending, and reviewing the bill, the Georgia General Assembly sent the Hatchett Act to Governor Deal's desk. After three days, the Governor signed the bill into law. The bill remained largely identical to Hatchett's original version, with the intent still to remove racial preference in affirmative action and make it solely based on income, upbringing, and academics. State Senator Gail Davenport (D) sent in an amendment that would add a non-discrimination clause, which won bipartisan support. Critics claim that this clause, which would ensure the prohibition of a student losing aid due to race or ethnicity, was merely an "empty promise" to silence minority concerns, but the amended bill actually received one third of Democratic support despite being barely modified from Hatchett's original copy. All tertiary schools in Georgia must comply to these new affirmative action standards by the beginning of their Spring 2017 semesters, though universities may apply for an extension until Summer 2017. Texas, Louisiana, and New Mexico all have similar laws currently being reviewed to be passed on, and the state legislatures of Nebraska, Utah, Florida, and Kentucky have all made plans to pass similar laws in their states. (1)

Luis Gutierrez Killed in Abduction! Pancho Captured!

Chicago, Illinois - August 14th, 2016.

Congressman Luis Gutierrez died while an assailant abducted him from prison. Gutierrez was awaiting trial, without bail, and was being held in a local Chicago prison. A masked Hispanic man sneaked into the prison, killed any surrounding guards within Gutierrez's wing of the facility, and snatched the Congressman against his will. Still donning his mask, the assailant disguised himself as a police officer and ran away with Gutierrez in a SWAT car. Chicago PD chased after the abductor, persisting in a 3-hour long circular chase across the city. The SWAT vehicle crashed, and was located two hours after the initial collision. The perpetrator was left mostly unharmed, with only minor cuts and bruises. However, Gutierrez died when his head hit the car's metal wall. He bled out before police found him an the stolen car.

Despite Gutierrez's death, the FBI's investigation can continue. The abductor was none other than Pancho, the man who almost assassinated Donald Trump back on New Year's. He had returned to the United States on orders from his superiors, ordered to abduct Gutierrez so he "would not rat us out." During interrogation, Pancho admitted that he was a high-ranking member of "Los Ejecutores Raciales." The group had been festering as a radical wing of La Raza for a few years since 2012, with the near-assassination of Trump being the group's first big operation. Pancho admitted that the group aimed "to aid a pro-Hispanic agenda during this year's elections." He revealed that the assassination of Congressman Steve Pearce, and the manipulation and intimidation of voters in the special election, was also his group's doing. Pancho, whose real name is Fransisco Royez Calavera, will be heading to trial at a currently unscheduled time. To prevent another incident, the FBI will take over the investigation entirely, taking it out of the hands of state and local authorities.

Riots Break Out in California, Texas, New Mexico. Both US Citizens and Illegals Involved.

August 15th, 2016.

Roving bands of rioters have instigated chaos in various urban and Hispanic-heavy cities in Texas, California, and New Mexico. These rioters have begun to rob stores, immolate various objects and buildings, and attack bystanders all in sync with each other in these three states. The perpetrators are various mestizos, Amerindians, and other types of non-White Hispanics. Their targets are exclusively non-Hispanics and White Hispanics have been targeted. Whites, Blacks, Asians, White Hispanics, all have been assaulted equally by these assailants. Police and other observers have noted that these rioters appear to be ignoring Hispanic neighborhoods and individuals, apart from those considered "White Hispanics." In Brownsville, Texas, the rioters chanted in unison "make these gringos suffer! Latino name or no, if you're not brown, you are the oppressor!"

President Obama has announced caution, not "wanting to let racial fears interfere with innocent lives." This supposed pandering has earned its usual ire from the right... and also from the left. Eleanor Holmes Norton noted that "blacks have been attacked as well. These rioters aren't angry at whites: they're angry at everyone. Racism has already hurt innocents." Governor Brian Sandocal of Nevada remarked, "they are even attacking fellow Hispanics solely for having light skin. The President worries about the situation turning racist, but this was racist from the start. We need action." The President has not used any federal agency to combat these riots, but state and local agencies are working 24/7 to defuse the situation. All three Governors in these affected states, including Jerry Brown of California, have declared a state of emergency. They have also summoned their states' National Guard units as another defense.

OOC Notes:

1. The states already reviewing affirmative action reform laws began to create and debate legislation during late June and early July.

[Bigby]

Hatchett Act-Like Laws Passed in Texas, Louisiana, Florida.

August 18th, 2016.

State legislatures in Texas, Louisiana, and Florida have all passed laws similar to Georgia's Hatchett Act as of Thursday. Governors Gregg Abbott and Rick Scott of Texas and Florida have already signed the bills into law, and Governor Gerald Long will make the bill Louisiana law tomorrow. All three states passed bills very similar to the Hatchett Act, including the anti-racial discrimination amendment. Mestizos and Amerindians have voiced their objections to the bills, just like in Georgia, but many White Hispanics, particularly in Texas and Florida, have voiced support for the bills.

Stock Market Disaster! Dow Closes 4,000 Points Down in Black Wednesday!

New York City - August 24th, 2016.

Today is not a bright day for stockbrokers or anyone in general. The Dow closed from 16,000 to 12,000 at 5 PM, a full 4,000 point plunge. In what became known as Black Wednesday, the stock market has went from chaotic to clearly negative. This will only incite fear into the economy, and unemployment rates will inevitably rise. Gallup has revealed that unemployment has already risen back to 7%.  Gallup has also revealed that economic confidence has decreased a full 4 points, going down to -17.

August 26th Update: Gallup has released new, further polling. Unemployment has risen to 8.3% nationally, with New York City being the biggest contributor to that rising number. Indeed, 60% of newly unemployed people are from the NYC area alone. The Dow has risen 500 points, but prospects are still dim.

Mestizo Protests Over Hatchett Act and Similar Legislation. Supreme Court to Review Hatchett Act.

Atlanta, Georgia - August 29th, 2016.

Although race riots are continuing in the Southwest, more peaceful protests have begun in Georgia over the Hatchett Act. Mestizo and Amerindian protesters, while not acting violently, have congregated in Atlanta to criticize the Hatchett Act's "reinterpretation of affirmative action." Leading these protests is a man named Antonio Gomez (pictured, left) who has successfully sued the state of Georgia; the US Supreme Court will hear his case. Gomez, while he has kept his HOPE scholarship at UGA, was notified that should his 2.8 GPA not rise to 3.0 or higher, he would lose the scholarship after the Spring semester begins. He argues that the Hatchett Act is targeting him for being a non-White Hispanic. The state of Georgia has argued that not only is Gomez incorrect about his accusations, the Hatchett Law does not jeopardize him since his 2.8 GPA would not meet the HOPE requirements even before the Hatchett Law's existence. Chief Justice John Roberts promises a decision before September's end. (1)

Race Riots Continue, Expand to New York, Illinois, Florida. BLM Gets Involved.

September 5th, 2016.

Hispanic riots have continued to grow in the Southwest. Furthermore, they have spread to New York, Illinois, and Florida. Mestizo and Amerindian rioters, both in new and old areas, are continuing to target all other ethnicities, including White Hispanics. One Mestizo rioter in Illinois, after being arrested for mugging a White Hispanic man, yelled "Voy a chingarte en tu culo, Castellano." After this became viral, several other Mestizo groups have been using "Castellano" as an insult to White Hispanics, as well as other words re-purposed into slurs such as "Conquistador," "Chingon," and so on. One White Hispanic in Albany, New York was found flayed in his apartment, with the words "You white devils are evil because of your skin. We're going to free you from it." painted on the walls in the victim's blood. Black protesters, who have been protesting separately from these rioters, have also been attacked. One black Texas A&M student, who was stabbed by a rioter, informed police that "the b[inks]tard who stabbed me screamed at me 'how darky n[inks] like you are stealing our spotlight, our plight from us' while I was being stabbed."

Speaking of black activists, many in the BLM movement have criticized Obama for his inaction and have called out for him and others to speak out against this violence and/or increase federal involvement in the matter. One such BLM activist, a Georgetown Law student named Jacqui Williams, expressed discontent with Obama's silence. "I used to think he cared about fellow African-Americans, but now he is caving into Mestizo radicals. He sure was eager to fight white racism, but not brown racism." On the electoral side of this outcry from BLM, the organization has promised to endorse the first candidate to promise to do something about these riots and killings. Rubio, while he has promised to "constitutionally fight back against these crime doers," has stated "I don't support BLM, but they're right. The President refuses to fight for justice; he is too scared to defy the Democratic scheme of minority-pandering for votes." Sanders has expressed support for BLM, despite earlier friction with the group. "I will not play the race-mongering game of the Republicans, but all Americans deserve the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Something must be done, and BLM will be part of that solution once I'm President." Biden has refused to comment at all, simply expressing "the best of hopes" to deal with this situation.

Up Next: BLM's Endorsement, the Hatchett Law Passes, and What Disastor, Your Honor.

OOC Notes:

1. Antonia Gomez is a fictional person.
2. As is Jacqui Williams.