Could Obama have won in a less diverse America?

[Vega]

Hedging that this is the best sub-forum.

As the title says, could Obama have won in a less diverse America? If America was 80% White, could he still have won in 2008 and 2012?

[Asian Nazi]

Assuming that this is a world where the national quota system is never repealed.  So America is just as black as in our timeline (or even blacker, if you're measuring by percentages) while Hispanic and Asian populations are much lower.

2008 election?  Yeah, Obama would probably still win, though the margin would be lower, more like 3-4 percent.

In 2012?  Probably not, though it'd be close.

The electoral maps would be...different, though not necessarily THAT different.  Just as a guess, California would merely be Democrat leaning, as opposed to solid D, while states like Colorado and Nevada would probably be in the Republican column and New Mexico, competitive but definitely R-leaning like it was throughout most of its history IIRC.  Florida would be Republican, though still winnable for a Democrat in a very good year.  North Carolina would be out of reach, and Virginia would be bluing but still firmly in the Republican column I believe.

And of course the electoral college would look significantly different.  States like Texas and California would lose considerable electoral clout, while the South, Midwest and Northeast would be stronger in comparison.

Though it's entirely possible that the parties could be significantly different in this timeline too.  For example, the Democrats might have bled less among white working class and white Southern voters without immigration as a wedge issue and with the Democrats having more incentive to retain these voters.  In fact, the entire socioeconomic climate of the country would likely be totally different without the latest wave of immigrants, and we might be facing a demographic timebomb like Japan or Germany unless "native" birthrates somehow rose to compensate. 

[bagelman]

With a stronger white majority in 2012 specifically, maybe simply more white turnout at the expense of minority turnout, the map might look like this:

What the electoral map might look like with a stronger white majority (possibly including Hispanic whites):

President Hillary Clinton

President Mitt Romney.

---------------------------------

Overall, Obama faces a very close election in 2012, but still wins 2008. The hardest part for him is defeating Hillary Clinton in the 2008 primaries, this is now harder.

[Vega]

^^
Thanks for the replies.

d32123, interesting analysis. What I had in mind, though, actually was a slightly delayed and tamped down (though nothing too radically different) 1965 immigration bill, which would pass in 1968 or so.

In addition to some different mechanics with Free Trade in the 80s and 90s (one of the main reasons many Hispanic people came to the US), along with more strict/not updated quotas of population for the specific region of Mexico/Latin America, the overall Latino/Hispanic population in the US would be around 6.5% in 2015.

Other racial groups would be around the same place they are today, give or take.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes in 2008, no in 2012.

[Asian Nazi]

^^
Thanks for the replies.

d32123, interesting analysis. What I had in mind, though, actually was a slightly delayed and tamped down (though nothing too radically different) 1965 immigration bill, which would pass in 1968 or so.

In addition to some different mechanics with Free Trade in the 80s and 90s (one of the main reasons many Hispanic people came to the US), along with more strict/not updated quotas of population for the specific region of Mexico/Latin America, the overall Latino/Hispanic population in the US would be around 6.5% in 2015.

Other racial groups would be around the same place they are today, give or take.

Yeah, I think that makes more sense.  I'm pretty sure if they didn't reform the system at all the white % would be even higher than what you were going for in the OP.

[Adam Griffin]

I ran the calculations to determine this. I also used the NYT calculator in a reverse-engineered fashion to get an idea of how states would have adjusted in 2012. With a 2012 electorate, proportionate reductions in voting population among all non-white groups and with every group voting the same way, the electorate couldn't be more than 77% white in order for Obama to tie in the PV and win with a slim 272-266 victory in the EC.

This electorate would be practically identical to the 2004 electorate, meaning John Kerry could have narrowly won under 2012 support conditions.


With 2008 levels of support by race, however, Obama would have definitely won with a 80% white electorate. In fact, it's possible that he could have won with an up to 84% white electorate, as the appropriate national PV calculations show that he would still have been slightly above 49% in such a scenario.

84.0 White * 0.43 = 36.12
8.2 Black * 0.97 = 7.95
5.8 Latino * 0.66 = 3.82
2.0 Other * 0.60 = 1.2

100 Electorate = 49.09% Obama

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Dukakis would have won with 2012 demographics, so Obama would have lost by a few points with 1988 demographics.

[Vega]

I ran the calculations to determine this. I also used the NYT calculator in a reverse-engineered fashion to get an idea of how states would have adjusted in 2012. With a 2012 electorate, proportionate reductions in voting population among all non-white groups and with every group voting the same way, the electorate couldn't be more than 77% white in order for Obama to tie in the PV and win with a slim 272-266 victory in the EC.

This electorate would be practically identical to the 2004 electorate, meaning John Kerry could have narrowly won under 2012 support conditions.


With 2008 levels of support by race, however, Obama would have definitely won with a 80% white electorate. In fact, it's possible that he could have won with an up to 84% white electorate, as the appropriate national PV calculations show that he would still have been slightly above 49% in such a scenario.

84.0 White * 0.43 = 36.12
8.2 Black * 0.97 = 7.95
5.8 Latino * 0.66 = 3.82
2.0 Other * 0.60 = 1.2

100 Electorate = 49.09% Obama

That seems like a good racial breakdown to what I was thinking, though I would envision Asians (which seem to be lacking) and Blacks being slightly higher, 3.5% and 11% respectively.

Also, how would EC shape up with a demographic like you described plus my revised numbers? I wouldn't imagine it would change that much, other than FL, TX, and CA being higher, and PA, NY, and OH being higher.

[Kingpoleon]

Alternate 2012:

306: Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney(R-MA)/Sen. Kevin Faulconer(R-CA) - 51.2%
232: Pres. Barack Obama(D-IL)/Vice Pres. James Webb(D-VA) - 47.9%
Other: 1.8%

[Vega]

Does anyone have the estimated total of Hispanic voters who voted in 2012? Does such a thing even exist?

[Young Conservative]

I want to comment on this but how do i put a map on here as y'all are? thanks!:)

[Clark Kent]

2008 might've looked something like this with Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain:

Some states (Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico) might've gone the other way, though.

[hopper]

I do think Obama would have won both in 2008 and 2012 but 2012 it would have been closer. Black Women still win Obama both VA and OH. 

The difference would be that Colorado and Nevada would have a slight Republican PVI without the "Mexican Immigration Boom" that took place from 1977-2005 and New Mexico might be D+2 or even towards having an" EVEN PVI" now. Florida  would be the same I think as it is now "PVI Wise" since most Hispanics are not of Mexican Descent they are of Cuban and Puerto Rican descent that live there.

[Asian Nazi]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

I played with this a little.  Even if you drop Hispanic and Asian/Other turnout to zero, Obama still wins the electoral college, albeit only 283-255.  He loses the popular vote by 2.1%, though, the worst an electoral vote winner has since 1876.

[RFayette]

I want to comment on this but how do i put a map on here as y'all are? thanks!:)

1.  Press the "evc" button near the top of your screen (this is one of the series of buttons right under the "Atlas forum" logo.
2. Construct your map.
3. When you are finished, click "Show map link" and copy/paste that into whatever post you are making for your map to be displayed.

Hope this helps.

[Vega]

Hate to be one to kick a dead horse, if this thread is one, but any other estimates for the electoral college?