Poll of the holidays, Veterans Day Edition: Will Trump lead at Thanksgiving?

[The Mikado]

Well, Trump's lead has evaporated to nearly-nothing, but nearly-nothing is still a positive number! Also, most of the tightening has come from Carson rising, not Trump falling. Trump's support is remarkably consistent.

The key to this question might just be "do you think Carson can stay on top until November 26th" rather than anything to do with Trump. Or maybe you do think Trump will collapse in the next two weeks or something, who knows.

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Yes because Carson's # will sink after that poor debate performance.

[Maxwell]

Yes because Carson's # will sink after that poor debate performance.

I say that was Carson's best debate yet because he was barely even there. I believe Carson's candidacy ends when he talks about the issues too much, because he has little to no coherent knowledge about the issues. So he's not really asked, and notice he almost always answered before or around the buzzer. The rest of the candidates crave air time, they demand more and more of it, they go on for MINUTES beyond the buzzer. Carson is so different in that respect.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

I've been saying that Carson will take the lead the last couple times this question was asked, but I think that Trump will stay on top for now.

And,

Yes because Carson's # will sink after that poor debate performance.

[Mr. Morden]

I could see the national polls remaining more or less the same (meaning either Trump or Carson ahead) up until January.  In fact, even in January, I'm not sure if the national polls will change that much, but I'll guess that the Iowa and New Hampshire polls will see several wild swings, a la the Democratic primary in January 2004.  January could be pretty wild.  And then the national polls would shift dramatically in early Feb. if there are surprises in IA or NH.

I'm trying to think of a recent presidential primary race in which there weren't big swings in either the IA or NH polls in the weeks leading up to election day.  Predicting that at least one of those will give us a big surprise seems like a good bet.

[The Mikado]

Looks like the Yeses have it. Christmas poll up shortly.