Predict Margin (%) for LA-Governor

[Seattle]

Edwards: 52.7
Vitter: 47.3

[Miles]

Here we geaux:

Edwards: 51.5%
Vitter: 48.5%

Nungesser: 56.4%
Holden: 43.6%

Elvis: 50.3%
Landry: 49.7%

[madelka]

Here we geaux:

Edwards: 51.5%
Vitter: 48.5%

Nungesser: 56.4%
Holden: 43.6%

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Edwards: 54%
Vitter: 46%

Revising my numbers to:

Edwards: 50.75%
Vitter: 49.25%

[Hydera]

Edwards: 54%
Vitter: 46%

Revising my numbers to:

Edwards: 50.75%
Vitter: 49.25%

Me too.


Edwards: 50.30%

Vitter: 49.70%

[DrScholl]

I'm still saying

Edwards 54%
Vitter 46%

[RFayette]

Edwards: 54%
Vitter: 46%

Revising my numbers to:

Edwards: 50.75%
Vitter: 49.25%

Me too.


Edwards: 50.30%

Vitter: 49.70%

[Niemeyerite]

I still think Edwards will win by about 9 points (54.5 - 45.5).

[ElectionsGuy]

Locking
10:48 EST: Unlocked

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Edwards: 54%
Vitter: 46%

Revising my numbers to:

Edwards: 50.75%
Vitter: 49.25%

lol at my revision

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

56-44 Nungesser

Lieutenant Governor
3817 of 3945 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
Melvin L. "Kip" Holden (D)   43.97%   484843
"Billy" Nungesser (R)   56.03%   617779

Exactly right

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

56-44 Nungesser

Lieutenant Governor
3817 of 3945 precincts reporting
Click here for Results by Parish
Melvin L. "Kip" Holden (D)   43.97%   484843
"Billy" Nungesser (R)   56.03%   617779

Exactly right

Nice job! It could get even closer with the last few precincts.

[ElectionsGuy]

Vitter: 53%
Edwards:47%

I'm extremely pessimistic after Kentucky.

Vitter wins by 5 points.

Vitter 55
Edwards 45

D:

Vitter wins by 5 points.

This. +/- 2 points either way.

52 Vitter
48 Edwards

Vitter wins by 5 points.

I want JBE to win but I'd still be surprised if the result is anything but this.

I'm gonna buy low and predict a Vitter win, but it'll be close either way.

53% - Vitter
47% - Edwards

I have no faith in the people of Louisiana

50.5 Vitter
49.5 Edwards

52.7 Vitter
47.3 Edwards

Vitter wins 54%-46% because only Republicans can win after being behind in the polls.

51% David Vitter
49% John Bel Edwards

Republicans and conservatives come home at the last minute, in the wake of the Syrian refugee situation, and refuse to install a Democrat in the governor's mansion.

Vitter 51%
Edwards 49%

Vitter 53-47
Nungesser 57-43
Landry 56-44

My final projection.

Vitter shall be victorious!!!

Vitter - 50.1%
Edwards - 49.9%

Recount ensues.

Vitter: 52%
Edwards: 48%

I suppose we can call this the Kentucky effect? A vast overreaction based on the wrongness of poll for one race greatly disillusions people to think the same will happen in another, even when Edwards was above 50% in the vast majority of them. This is amazing.

[ElectionsGuy]

Congrats to Kingpolean, Oldies, Tender Branson, dingojoe, Maxwell (first prediction), and whoever else was between 55 and 57% Edwards for being the most accurate.

[Miles]

I suppose we can call this the Kentucky effect? A vast overreaction based on the wrongness of poll for one race greatly disillusions people to think the same will happen in another, even when Edwards was above 50% in the vast majority of them. This is amazing.

According to Charles Franklin (the Marquette guy) the polling averages slightly underestimated Edwards.

[Kingpoleon]

Congrats to Kingpolean, Oldies, Tender Branson, dingojoe, Maxwell (first prediction), and whoever else was between 55 and 57% Edwards for being the most accurate.

I will accept my accolades.

[ElectionsGuy]

Congrats to Kingpolean, Oldies, Tender Branson, dingojoe, Maxwell (first prediction), and whoever else was between 55 and 57% Edwards for being the most accurate.

I will accept my accolades.

You also revised your prediction later to a closer race, though

[Kingpoleon]

Congrats to Kingpolean, Oldies, Tender Branson, dingojoe, Maxwell (first prediction), and whoever else was between 55 and 57% Edwards for being the most accurate.

I will accept my accolades.

You also revised your prediction later to a closer race, though

I will accept my accolades for deleting it denying that.