Predict Margin (%) for LA-Governor
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Author Topic: Predict Margin (%) for LA-Governor  (Read 10802 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: November 12, 2015, 01:01:50 AM »
« edited: November 21, 2015, 11:18:36 PM by ElectionsGuy »
Edwards: 53%
Vitter: 47%

For Lt Gov:

Nungesser: 57%
Holden: 43%
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2015, 01:07:19 AM »
Edwards: 52%
Vitter: 48%
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DrScholl
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2015, 01:10:45 AM »
Edwards: 54%
Vitter: 46%
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Intell
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2015, 01:15:20 AM »
Vitter: 53%
Edwards:47%

I'm extremely pessimistic after Kentucky.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2015, 01:36:12 AM »
Eh, I'm feeling bold.

Edwards: 57.9%
Vitter: 42.1%
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2015, 02:07:07 AM »
I might update mine, but for now...

Edwards - 51.4%
Vitter - 48.6%
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Maxwell
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2015, 02:10:08 AM »
I'll go ahead and say...

Edwards - 56%
Vitter - 44%

A little less than those 20 point polls, but all numbers and debates suggest that Vitter is getting eviscerated, and Republicans are not standing by him. Turnout is way up, Dardenne endorsed Edwards, Vitter has raised little money. I can't believe it, but I think Vitter is completely toast.

I'll go and guess the other races too, even though I know a lot less about them other than poll numbers.

Lieutnant Governor

53% Nungesser
47% Holden

Attorney General (surprise of the night

51% Landry
49% Caldwell
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2015, 04:13:03 AM »
Edwards - 51%

Vitter - 49%

(at least i hope for that or better)
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Knives
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2015, 05:05:48 AM »
Edwards - 59%
Vitter - 41%
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2015, 05:25:01 AM »
Edwards: 55%
Vitter: 45%
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windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2015, 05:27:17 AM »
Vitter wins by 5 points.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2015, 06:01:25 AM »
Edwards - 52.5%
Vitter - 47.5%
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2015, 06:39:01 AM »
Vitter 55
Edwards 45

D:
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2015, 06:44:33 AM »
Edwards 50-47-3
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2015, 07:00:19 AM »

Who gets 3%?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2015, 07:06:35 AM »
EDWARDS barely get to 51 percent avoid runoff
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2015, 07:30:12 AM »

Quote from: OC on November 12, 2015, 07:06:35 AM
EDWARDS barely get to 51 percent avoid runoff

Not only you contradict yourself... You haven't realized yet that what's taking place next week is the de facto runoff. So, please, just shut up.

Oh, and my prediction is:

JBE 54.5%
Vitter 45.5%
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #17 on: November 12, 2015, 08:16:48 AM »
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #18 on: November 12, 2015, 08:17:08 AM »
« Edited: November 17, 2015, 03:55:22 PM by Vitter for Governor »

This. +/- 2 points either way.
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Zache
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« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2015, 08:21:11 AM »

I want JBE to win but I'd still be surprised if the result is anything but this.
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windjammer
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« Reply #20 on: November 12, 2015, 08:22:06 AM »
Quote from: Vitter for Governor on November 12, 2015, 08:17:08 AM
Quote from: windjammer on November 12, 2015, 05:27:17 AM
Vitter wins by 5 points.
[/quote

This. +/- 2 points either way.
Just for the record talleyrand,
Lmao Vitter looks like a thug in your signature.
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The Other Castro
Castro2020
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« Reply #21 on: November 12, 2015, 01:46:30 PM »
« Edited: November 12, 2015, 01:48:10 PM by Castro »
If Edwards wins half of Angelle and Dardenne voters, he gets around 57%. I think he'll end up winning an average of 58% of those voters, corresponding to a total general vote of about 59%. This estimate doesn't even take into account the possibility of Vitter voters switching over to Edwards and the higher rates of expected turnout.
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Asian Nazi
d32123
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« Reply #22 on: November 12, 2015, 01:46:45 PM »
I'm gonna buy low and predict a Vitter win, but it'll be close either way.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #23 on: November 12, 2015, 02:33:06 PM »
Edwards 54-46
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #24 on: November 12, 2015, 02:45:08 PM »
55.4% Edwards (D)
44.6% Asshole (R)
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