Predict Margin (%) for LA-Governor

[kansasdemocrat]

If Edwards wins half of Angelle and Dardenne voters, he gets around 57%. I think he'll end up winning an average of 58% of those voters, corresponding to a total general vote of about 59%. This estimate doesn't even take into account the possibility of Vitter voters switching over to Edwards and the higher rates of expected turnout.

BBBUUUUT MUH KENTUCKY!!!!

[Bojack Horseman]

59-41 Edwards

[Kingpoleon]

Gubernatorial:
57: John Bel Edwards
43: David Vitter

Lieutenat Gubernatorial:
52: Billy Nungesser
48: Kip Holden

Attorney General:
59: Buddy Caldwell
41: Jeff Landry

[Oldiesfreak1854]

55-45% for Edwards.

I highly suspect Edwards will win the runoff.  He's the perfect Democrat to pick off Republican voters who are disappointed by Vitter's scandals, because he's pro-life and supports gun rights. 

[kansasdemocrat]

Edwards 53%
Vitter 47%

Much closer than polled but a solid win for Edwards.

[Kingpoleon]

If Edwards wins two-thirds of Dardenne's voters(10%) + the two minor Democrats(2%) + just under one-third of Angelle's voters(6%), he wins 57-43. Is any of that really unrealistic? His floor is 49%(39%+2%+7%[half of Dardene's]).

[Miles]

^ Two-thirds of Dardenne's voters would be too charitable, IMO. I'm not expecting any more than half.

[Kingpoleon]

^ Two-thirds of Dardenne's voters would be too charitable, IMO. I'm not expecting any more than half.

Oh, come on. Dardenne and Edwards don't disagree on any major issues, and Dardenne is the type of guy who reinforces his positives in every action he takes. Even so, turnout against Vitter will be really high. It's not like Vitter is charismatic or a decent campaigner like Kentucky's Gov.-Elect Bevin is.

[/]

Vitter 55
Edwards 45

Still this.

[Sumner 1868]

Worst case scenario for Democrats:

Edwards 51.47
Vitter 48.53

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Vitter 55
Edwards 45

Still this.

Quoting just in case you try to delete this on election night.

[IceSpear]

^ Two-thirds of Dardenne's voters would be too charitable, IMO. I'm not expecting any more than half.

Oh, come on. Dardenne and Edwards don't disagree on any major issues, and Dardenne is the type of guy who reinforces his positives in every action he takes. Even so, turnout against Vitter will be really high. It's not like Vitter is charismatic or a decent campaigner like Kentucky's Gov.-Elect Bevin is.

This post is a great example of the victor deciding history. Bevin was constantly pilloried during the race from all sides as a TERRIBLE campaigner.

[BigSkyBob]

^ Two-thirds of Dardenne's voters would be too charitable, IMO. I'm not expecting any more than half.

Oh, come on. Dardenne and Edwards don't disagree on any major issues, and Dardenne is the type of guy who reinforces his positives in every action he takes. Even so, turnout against Vitter will be really high. It's not like Vitter is charismatic or a decent campaigner like Kentucky's Gov.-Elect Bevin is.

This post is a great example of the victor deciding history. Bevin was constantly pilloried during the race from all sides as a TERRIBLE campaigner.

You know, one of the possibilities is that the folks who "pilloried" Bevin were wrong....

[Kingpoleon]

^ Two-thirds of Dardenne's voters would be too charitable, IMO. I'm not expecting any more than half.

Oh, come on. Dardenne and Edwards don't disagree on any major issues, and Dardenne is the type of guy who reinforces his positives in every action he takes. Even so, turnout against Vitter will be really high. It's not like Vitter is charismatic or a decent campaigner like Kentucky's Gov.-Elect Bevin is.

This post is a great example of the victor deciding history. Bevin was constantly pilloried during the race from all sides as a TERRIBLE campaigner.

You know, one of the possibilities is that the folks who "pilloried" Bevin were wrong....

Nope. Bevin only won because of voter fraud, voter turnout, and voter racism. People could never legimitately admire a man smeared by the media constantly.

[BigSkyBob]

^ Two-thirds of Dardenne's voters would be too charitable, IMO. I'm not expecting any more than half.

Oh, come on. Dardenne and Edwards don't disagree on any major issues, and Dardenne is the type of guy who reinforces his positives in every action he takes. Even so, turnout against Vitter will be really high. It's not like Vitter is charismatic or a decent campaigner like Kentucky's Gov.-Elect Bevin is.

This post is a great example of the victor deciding history. Bevin was constantly pilloried during the race from all sides as a TERRIBLE campaigner.

You know, one of the possibilities is that the folks who "pilloried" Bevin were wrong....

Nope. Bevin only won because of voter fraud, voter turnout, and voter racism. People could never legimitately admire a man smeared by the media constantly.

I would have to reconsider supporting any candidate who wasn't "smeared" by the media constantly. Being "smeared" by the media is practically a badge of honor on the right. When the mainstream media is practically apoplectic I am giddy.

[IceSpear]

^ Two-thirds of Dardenne's voters would be too charitable, IMO. I'm not expecting any more than half.

Oh, come on. Dardenne and Edwards don't disagree on any major issues, and Dardenne is the type of guy who reinforces his positives in every action he takes. Even so, turnout against Vitter will be really high. It's not like Vitter is charismatic or a decent campaigner like Kentucky's Gov.-Elect Bevin is.

This post is a great example of the victor deciding history. Bevin was constantly pilloried during the race from all sides as a TERRIBLE campaigner.

You know, one of the possibilities is that the folks who "pilloried" Bevin were wrong....

Or maybe Bevin won despite his campaigning skills, not because of them. It happens constantly.

[Maxwell]

And because Conway was worse. With Bevin, at least there was something sort of... human about him. Conway was literally Politicianbot.

but yeah, Edwards is gonna smoke Vitter because Edwards is boss.

[morgieb]

Edwards 53.5%
Vitter 46.5%

So still a comfortable win, but there's enough of a shy Vitter effect to see it tighten.

[DINGO Joe]

Gubernatorial:
57: John Bel Edwards
43: David Vitter

Lieutenat Gubernatorial:
52: Billy Nungesser
48: Kip Holden

Attorney General:
59: Buddy Caldwell
41: Jeff Landry

This is about where I'm at.

[Vega]

I would be surprised if Edwards did not have coattails, especially if more minorities turn out, that would sweep the LG's race too, no?

[Maxwell]

I would be surprised if Edwards did not have coattails, especially if more minorities turn out, that would sweep the LG's race too, no?

If the most generous polls are right and Edwards wins by more than 20, then I think he could drag Holden across the finishing line.

I suspect, however, Edwards will only win by low double digits, and as a result, Nungesser only gets a scare.

[Flake]

57-43 Edwards
50-50 Holden
56-44 Landry

[JMT]

My Prediction:
Edwards: 52.1%
Vitter: 47.9

However, considering the strong Republican tilt of Louisiana in most statewide races, I am not as certain as other Atlas users that Edwards will win. While I expect Edwards to win, I would not be surprised if Vitter pulls out a narrow victory. 

[Sumner 1868]

My Prediction:
Edwards: 52.1%
Vitter: 47.9

However, considering the strong Republican tilt of Louisiana in most statewide races, I am not as certain as other Atlas users that Edwards will win. While I expect Edwards to win, I would not be surprised if Vitter pulls out a narrow victory. 

The fact a Democrat leads in Obama-era Louisiana at all emphasizes that Vitter is in big trouble. A Vitter win would not be shocking, but I would be slightly surprised.

[SATW]

Gubernatorial:
55: John Bel Edwards
45: David Vitter

Lieutenant Gubernatorial:
53: Billy Nungesser
47: Kip Holden

Attorney General:
56: Buddy Caldwell
44: Jeff Landry