IIRC, the new RNC rules require the nominee to have won five binding state delegate contests. So, in an attempt to prevent the minor nuisance of a few Rand Paul delegates putting his name up for nomination, they may have committed themselves to picking between Trump and Carson as their only choices for a nominee. Delicious irony.
There is no way that Trump and Carson win 45 states combined.
a. That's not how it works. It's 4 * the number of other candidates subtracted from the number of binding states (which is less than 50 I believe). You're assuming 3 candidates.
b. I wouldn't discount the possibility.