What are the odds of a Mitt Romney nomination?

[Lyin' Steve]

If Rubio collapses before Iowa, I think the odds of a Romney candidacy dramatically increase.  He may not get on all the ballots but the other establishment candidates could collect delegates for him via proxy.  What are the odds?  I'd say about 10%.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Steve, stop trying to make Romney 2016 happen. It's not going to happen.

[Maxwell]

Relax - Mitt Romney is already in negotiations to buy out John Kasich's podium.

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair has Romney at 0.7% and Ryan at 0.4%.  Can't really see it being any higher than that, given that we already have plenty of candidates who are actually running for the nomination.

A more interesting question: How many of the 15 candidates currently in the race are less likely to win the nomination than Romney?

[Adam Griffin]

I don't think the primary is going to get severely conservative enough for Romney to be drafted.

[bagelman]

Betfair has Romney at 0.7% and Ryan at 0.4%.  Can't really see it being any higher than that, given that we already have plenty of candidates who are actually running for the nomination.

A more interesting question: How many of the 15 candidates currently in the race are less likely to win the nomination than Romney?

Does Jack Fellure count?

Jim Gilmore and George Pataki are more likely answers.

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair has Romney at 0.7% and Ryan at 0.4%.  Can't really see it being any higher than that, given that we already have plenty of candidates who are actually running for the nomination.

A more interesting question: How many of the 15 candidates currently in the race are less likely to win the nomination than Romney?

Does Jack Fellure count?

Jim Gilmore and George Pataki are more likely answers.

I don't know if it's just them.  I think I'd probably rate Romney as more likely to be the nominee than Santorum, tbh.  Though comparing the relative likelihood of <1% events isn't easy.

I'm reminded of 2008, when Tweed posted a poll about who is more likely to be the GOP nominee, George W. Bush or Jeb Bush?  Jeb wasn't running, and George was constitutionally ineligible to run for a third term, but Tweed argued that George declaring martial law and ignoring the constitutional prohibition on a third term was more likely than Jeb somehow emerging from a brokered convention scenario, when he didn't run during the primaries.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Stop making this a thing....it's not happening.

[I support Sanders]

The odds are currently impossible, as Romney is not running. If Rubio collapses, Kasich is the backup, not Romney.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Maybe 0.5%. Basically if there's a deadlocked convention, Romney might be the savior.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Steve, stop trying to make Romney 2016 happen. It's not going to happen.

[/]

40-50%

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Steve, stop trying to make Romney 2016 happen. It's not going to happen.

[Blair]

Guys, it's going to be a standard 'Romney, Mccain, Bush, Dole, Bush, Reagan' nomination, the GOP haven't had a close primary since 1976. That's not going to change

[Phony Moderate]

The odds are currently impossible, as Romney is not running.

Only in the same way that the odds of having an omelette for breakfast today are impossible because there are no eggs in the house.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Atlas needs to get over these "brokered convention" fantasies. Even in the unlikely event that did happen it would still be an actual candidate who emerged as the winner. Believe it or not throwing away the entire primary and just giving the nomination to someone who didn't run might have some consequences.

[Mehmentum]

Atlas needs to get over these "brokered convention" fantasies. Even in the unlikely event that did happen it would still be an actual candidate who emerged as the winner. Believe it or not throwing away the entire primary and just giving the nomination to someone who didn't run might have some consequences.

Not to mention, its doubtful that Trump/Carson/Cruz delegates would vote for Romney.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The GOP power brokers would have to be the biggest morons on earth to pull off a stunt like that.

In other words, a fair chance.

[Angel of Death]

Is Romney at least the most likely person to get the nomination among those who are not running?

[mencken]

IIRC, the new RNC rules require the nominee to have won five binding state delegate contests. So, in an attempt to prevent the minor nuisance of a few Rand Paul delegates putting his name up for nomination, they may have committed themselves to picking between Trump and Carson as their only choices for a nominee. Delicious irony.

[King]

No:way odds

[ProudModerate2]

Odds are very close to zero.

[The Other Castro]

About equal to 0.3(%chance of brokered convention), so like 0.3x2.0= 0.6% chance.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The odds are currently impossible, as Romney is not running. If Rubio collapses, Kasich is the backup, not Romney.

I think Christie is a more likely backup than Kasich.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

IIRC, the new RNC rules require the nominee to have won five binding state delegate contests. So, in an attempt to prevent the minor nuisance of a few Rand Paul delegates putting his name up for nomination, they may have committed themselves to picking between Trump and Carson as their only choices for a nominee. Delicious irony.

There is no way that Trump and Carson win 45 states combined.