What is a realistic scenario that has the GOP win Ohio, but still lose in 2016?

[I support Sanders]

Who would the nominee be, and what would a map look like. No Republican has won the White House without Ohio. Might 2016 be the year of change for that?

[Clark Kent]

Every time the GOP wins, we win Ohio, but the reverse is not always true. The most recent time we won Ohio but not the election was in 1960, when Nixon won Ohio but lost the election to Kennedy.

[MATTROSE94]

Even though Donald Trump will in all likelyhood lose the Presidential election, I feel that he has a decent chance at carrying Ohio, as Hillary Clinton is not really that popular in the state and Trump's message resonates well with white working class voters in Ohio.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Rubio/Kasich wins all of Romeny states + Ohio, Florida, Colorado losing 272-266

[/]

This is actually a really likely scenario, regardless.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Ohio has always been very slightly to the right of the nation (except for 2004). If the Democrat were to win by 1-2 points nationwide or even less, then a Republican could win Ohio but lose nationally. I am assuming in such a D+1 scenario a Democrat would win CO, NV, NM, VA, NH, etc but lose Florida and NC as well.

Also in the year 2000 Gore won the popular vote by .5 points and lost Ohio by 3.5 points giving it a 4 percentage point lean to the Republicans. Ohio mostly has a lean of R 1-3 points compared to the national average.

[Likely Voter]

Any GOP win scenario starts with picking up FL and OH. In a way that is the easy part. The trick is picking up a couple more states, like VA+CO

[Figueira]

A uniform swing would give the Republicans Florida and Ohio but not any other Obama states.

A spectacularly bad campaign run by a ticket that contains John Kasich might help this as well.

[Kingpoleon]

270: Fmr. Sen. Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Senator Mark Warner(D-VA) - 48.4%
268: Sen. Marco Rubio(R-FL)/Sen. Cory Gardner(R-CO) - 50.0%

Other: 1.5%

[Angel of Death]

Who would the nominee be, and what would a map look like. No Republican has won the White House without Ohio. Might 2016 be the year of change for that?

The subject line you gave is the inverted of this.

[Higgs]

Rubio/Kasich. It is quite plausible actually. (Almost) happened in 2000 as well.

This and Colorado going Republican seems the most likely

[I support Sanders]

Who would the nominee be, and what would a map look like. No Republican has won the White House without Ohio. Might 2016 be the year of change for that?

The subject line you gave is the inverted of this.

No, it's not. I'm asking if 2016 will be the year when the GOP wins Ohio, but loses, as opposed to their past trend of winning Ohio and winning the White House

[EliteLX]

Rubio/Kasich. It is quite plausible actually. (Almost) happened in 2000 as well.

This and Colorado going Republican seems the most likely

Been saying this in my '16 Election Prediction Map since the beginning.