It's all over. It's November, and Hillary leads 59-32.
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  It's all over. It's November, and Hillary leads 59-32.
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Author Topic: It's all over. It's November, and Hillary leads 59-32.  (Read 5948 times)
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jfern
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« on: November 12, 2015, 10:45:44 PM »

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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2015, 10:48:18 PM »

Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama. 2016 is not 2008. She is going to the White House for two terms. Feel free to dig this post up in November 2020.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2015, 10:48:54 PM »

Glad you're finally coming to your senses jfern. I just hope HILLDOG is as forgiving as I am.
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RFayette
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2015, 10:50:08 PM »

Come on man, you know this is a silly comparison.  First, by this time in 2007, Obama was already out-raising Hillary, which Bernie Sanders has not done.  Furthermore, you conveniently leave out John Edwards's candidacy by only including that one-on-one matchup, which shows that Hillary's total base of support was smaller in 2007 than it is now.  Hillary gets similar levels of support now when faced with an array of opponents rather than just one as is put here.
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kansasdemocrat
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2015, 10:57:33 PM »

The Sanderistas really are unhinged. Go back to your medicine cabinets!
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2015, 11:03:22 PM »

Come on man, you know this is a silly comparison.  First, by this time in 2007, Obama was already out-raising Hillary, which Bernie Sanders has not done.  Furthermore, you conveniently leave out John Edwards's candidacy by only including that one-on-one matchup, which shows that Hillary's total base of support was smaller in 2007 than it is now.  Hillary gets similar levels of support now when faced with an array of opponents rather than just one as is put here.

Not to mention, Obama could appeal to a far larger portion of the Democratic base than Bernie Sanders' narrow sliver.
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Frodo
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2015, 11:09:32 PM »

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I support Sanders
Bernie2016
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2015, 11:09:40 PM »

I think you're right. It looks like Hillary has the nomination locked down. I take solace, however, in the fact that she is unelectable.
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Frodo
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2015, 11:12:20 PM »

I think you're right. It looks like Hillary has the nomination locked down. I take solace, however, in the fact that she is unelectable.

I am saving this quote for next November.....  
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I support Sanders
Bernie2016
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2015, 11:21:40 PM »

I think you're right. It looks like Hillary has the nomination locked down. I take solace, however, in the fact that she is unelectable.

I am saving this quote for next November.....  
Thank you.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2015, 11:24:08 PM »

I think you're right. It looks like Hillary has the nomination locked down. I take solace, however, in the fact that she is unelectable.

Versus a traditional nominee, yes. Versus the nominee of the Republican Party in 2016... I think she has a pretty good shot, unless her health or the economy take a nosedive.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2015, 11:27:11 PM »

Differences between Obama and Sanders:

-Obama actually had significant establishment support.  Sure, Clinton had more endorsements, but Obama (and Edwards) still had a solid base of support, and weren't getting blown out in the hilarious way Sanders and O'Malley are.

-Obama had a unique ability to appeal to African Americans.  At first, AA's supported Clinton, but once Obama proved himself the historic nature of his candidacy became very powerful.  There's no chance of Sanders matching Obama's appeal with African Americans.

-Obama was (and still is) a much more eloquent speaker than Sanders.  Sure, Sanders' message is powerful to many people, but the delivery is only average, and honestly fairly repetitive.  In general, Obama is much more charismatic than Sanders, also younger and 'cooler'.

-Finally, its a myth that Clinton was seen as inevitable in 2008.  She was never thought of as the defacto nominee by a significant number people.
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I support Sanders
Bernie2016
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2015, 11:34:11 PM »
« Edited: November 13, 2015, 12:42:34 AM by I support Sanders »

I think you're right. It looks like Hillary has the nomination locked down. I take solace, however, in the fact that she is unelectable.

Versus a traditional nominee, yes. Versus the nominee of the Republican Party in 2016... I think she has a pretty good shot, unless her health or the economy take a nosedive.
You're underestimating the ability of virtually every Republican candidate currently running to excite their base.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2015, 11:46:12 PM »

It ain't over 'til it's over. One way or another. Granted, it's far more likely that Hillary will pound Sanders so hard that they'll make what's left of him into a beach along the shores of Lake Champlain.
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Asian Nazi
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2015, 11:47:53 PM »

Differences between Obama and Sanders:

-Obama actually had significant establishment support.  Sure, Clinton had more endorsements, but Obama (and Edwards) still had a solid base of support, and weren't getting blown out in the hilarious way Sanders and O'Malley are.

-Obama had a unique ability to appeal to African Americans.  At first, AA's supported Clinton, but once Obama proved himself the historic nature of his candidacy became very powerful.  There's no chance of Sanders matching Obama's appeal with African Americans.

-Obama was (and still is) a much more eloquent speaker than Sanders.  Sure, Sanders' message is powerful to many people, but the delivery is only average, and honestly fairly repetitive.  In general, Obama is much more charismatic than Sanders, also younger and 'cooler'.

-Finally, its a myth that Clinton was seen as inevitable in 2008.  She was never thought of as the defacto nominee by a significant number people.

I was going to post a response, but this basically sums it up.

If Sanders had support among minorities and some establishment backing, he could be a legitimate threat to Clinton.  But if I had a million dollars I'd be a millionaire.

Sandernistas continue to be comically delusional.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2015, 11:55:11 PM »

Sanders cannot win. He does not have the grassroot support that Obama had, and his supporters are mostly white liberals. It's impossible to win the Democratic primaries without both moderates and non-whites.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #16 on: November 12, 2015, 11:59:42 PM »

Note the downward Clinton trajectory... she's back where she was before the Sanders surge in late Summer.

This is NOT 2008 redux, Sanders is not Obama.

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Yank2133
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« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2015, 12:07:55 AM »

Come on man, you know this is a silly comparison.  First, by this time in 2007, Obama was already out-raising Hillary, which Bernie Sanders has not done.  Furthermore, you conveniently leave out John Edwards's candidacy by only including that one-on-one matchup, which shows that Hillary's total base of support was smaller in 2007 than it is now.  Hillary gets similar levels of support now when faced with an array of opponents rather than just one as is put here.

Not to mention, Obama could appeal to a far larger portion of the Democratic base than Bernie Sanders' narrow sliver.

This.
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SillyAmerican
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« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2015, 06:06:14 AM »

I think you're right. It looks like Hillary has the nomination locked down. I take solace, however, in the fact that she is unelectable.

Yes, and please remember that the FBI might have something important to say on the subject...
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #19 on: November 13, 2015, 07:36:18 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2015, 07:52:46 AM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

I think you're right. It looks like Hillary has the nomination locked down. I take solace, however, in the fact that she is unelectable.

Yes, and please remember that the FBI might have something important to say on the subject...

...and if they don't?

'unelectable'? Please from the person who voted for Romney over Obama. Hillary is plenty electable, it's just the Atlas fanatics who refuse to accept reality.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #20 on: November 13, 2015, 07:41:32 AM »

Hillary is the clear favorite, but yeah too many people act as if there is a single national primary or something.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
JOHN91043353
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« Reply #21 on: November 13, 2015, 07:51:19 AM »

Hillary is the clear favorite, but yeah too many people act as if there is a single national primary or something.

Which makes the comparison to '08 more disillusion. Even if the distance between Clinton and Sanders is the same as between Clinton and Obama at the same time in '08, Clinton is clearly in a stronger position in Iowa this time than she was in '08. If Sanders can't score some early victories the same way Obama did his momentum will pretty quickly fizzle.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2015, 07:51:50 AM »

We must also mention that at this point of the cycle Obama has posted his first leads in Iowa and South carolina, whereas Sanders is currently competitive only in New Hampshire.
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Intell
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« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2015, 07:59:31 AM »

I guess we have a Bernie IceSpear.
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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2015, 09:38:08 AM »

Hillary is the clear favorite, but yeah too many people act as if there is a single national primary or something.

Which makes the comparison to '08 more disillusion. Even if the distance between Clinton and Sanders is the same as between Clinton and Obama at the same time in '08, Clinton is clearly in a stronger position in Iowa this time than she was in '08. If Sanders can't score some early victories the same way Obama did his momentum will pretty quickly fizzle.

When DMR had Sanders within 7 in Iowa and his polling average was ahead of her in NH, I thought he had a small but not insignificant chance. The effect of Sanders defeating her in IA and NH both is unpredictable. His support level from minorities could change since it's mostly driven by them not knowing who he is. There's not the same kind of room for growth that Obama had with black voters- and Hillary handily beat Obama with Latinos- but they don't dislike him or anything.That said, I'm more bearish now that she has widened her lead in Iowa. The House Republican Benghazi Committee set out to destroy Hillary's campaign and ended up destroying Sanders.

 



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