India 2016 Assembly elections - April 4 to May 16 2016

[jaichind]

Now that Bihar is over we can focus on the April 2016 Assembly elections in 5 states: Assam, Kerela, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, West Bengal.  I will write something up that indicates the current state of play.

[jaichind]

A summery of Key parties in Kerela regional politics and 2011 Kerela election results

1977 was the big bang of Kerela politics.  In that year both INC dominated UDF and CPM-CPI dominated LDF was formed as rival fronts.  Before this CPI would go back and forth between INC and CPM.  Starting in 1977 followed by 1980 1982 1987 1991 1996 2001 2006 and 2011 UDF and LDF would alternate in power even as splits and mergers would take place around the various parties of Kerela.  The general pattern would be  for a splinter of a party of one of the two fronts to be created.  The that splinter would almost join the other front.  That is why even though LDF is THE Leftist front you see several Communist parties in UDF and UDF is THE anti-Communist Christian and Muslim front you see several INC IMUL and KEC splinters in LDF.

Key Parties
INC - Dominate party India since independence
BJP - Main center-right party of India
CPI - Main Communist Party of India when India became independent and major part of LDF.  Before 1977 had multiple alliances with INC.
CPM - CPI splinter from the 1960s and now larger of the two Communist parties.  Formation of LDF in 1977 was mostly based on CPM-CPI alliance.
RSP - Key radical Socialist Party since independence and splinter from CPI in the 1930s.  Key part of LDF although has done business with UDF in the past.
KEC - Represents Christians which are 20% of Kerela population, various splinters exists, some in UDF and some in LDF
IUML - Muslim League which represents Muslims which are 20% of the population.  Key part of UDF since 1977 when UDF was formed.
JD - Janata Dal which is the main Socialist party of India in the 1980s 1990s.  Many splinters exists.

Splinters
KEC(M) - Main KEC splinter and part of UDF
KEC(J) - Smaller KEC splinter and part of UDF
KEC(B) - Smaller KEC splinter and part of UDF
JD(S) - Splinter of JD and part of LDF
SJD - Splinter of JD(S) which was formed when it split JD into JD(U) and JD(S).  SJD has since merged with JD(U) and now part of UDF
JD(U) - Split from JD and was part of NDA.  Now merged with JD(S) splinter SJD and part of UDF
JSS - CPM splinter and part of UDF
NCP - INC splinter and now part of LDF
CMPKSC - CPM splinter and part of UDF - split from CPM for promoting a grand anti-INC alliance with IUML.  Ironically now part of UDF
KRSP - RSP splinter and now part of UDF
INL - IUML splinter and now part of LDF
KEC(AMG) - KEC splinter but has pro-LDF leanings and now part of LDF
INC(S) - INC splinter and part of LDF
KEC(T) - KEC splinter and part of LDF
 


2011 Kerela Assembly elections results which UDF narrowly won
                          
                    Contested         Won           Vote share
UDF                  140                72                 45.83%  
 INC                    82                38                 26.73%
 IUML                  23                20                   7.92%
 KEC(M)              16                  9                    5.30%
 SJD                     6                  2                    1.65%
 JSS                     4                  0                    1.31%
 CMPKSC              3                  0                    0.93%
 KEC(J)                3                   1                    0.91%
 KEC(B)               2                   1                    0.72%
 KRSP                  1                  1                     0.37%

LDF                  140                68                  45.21%  
 CPM                  84                 45                  28.18%
 CPI                   26                 13                    8.72%
 JD(S)                 5                   4                     1.52%
 RSP                   4                   2                     1.31%
 NCP                   4                   2                     1.24%
 INL                    3                   0                     0.55%
 KEC(AMG)          2                   0                     0.51%
 INC(S)               1                    0                    0.28%
 KEC(T)               1                   0                     0.23%
 Independents   10                   2                     2.67%

NDA                 139                  0                     6.05%
  BJP                 138                 0                     6.03%
  JD(U)                  1                 0                     0.02%

This time around most likely UDF will lose power to LDF.  The wild card would be NDA because if the BJP gains votes it will mostly be at the expense LDF which relies on the Hindu vote.  NDA did come in second in 3 seats.  This time around if BJP can great a significant swing toward it then it could win 3 seats.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why does Kerala have such a strong communists base? I always think of as a relatively rich state, especially compared to states like UP and Bihar which don't have very strong communists at all.

how much sectarianism goes on? I'm guessing not that much I'd the BJP has never managed to to do very well...

[jaichind]

Why does Kerala have such a strong communists base? I always think of as a relatively rich state, especially compared to states like UP and Bihar which don't have very strong communists at all.

how much sectarianism goes on? I'm guessing not that much I'd the BJP has never managed to to do very well...

It is mostly path dependent.  Kerela was the first state to have a non-INC government with a breakthrough by CPI.  This provoked the Kerela Christian and Muslim movements to align with INC to gang up against the threat of Left.  This further provoked a Hindu consolidation behind CPM.  In the 1957-1977 period elections Kerela has been a series of various grand alliances against CPM or grand alliances against INC.  All these elections became very polarized and pretty much deprived BJS (which is proto-BJP) of any political oxygen despite a fairly sectarian and communal nature of political mobilization.  After 1977 the BJP did build itself in Kerela to go from 5% to 10% of the vote over a very long period of time.  Given the hostility between BJP and CPM, tactical voting by the BJP vote for UDF also tends to strangle the growth of the BJP.   

[jaichind]

2014 Kerela LS elections results.  I thought I also show the Assembly district leads based on LS election results.  UDF had the upper hand with NDA getting almost 11% of the vote and leading in 4 assembly districts.

                        Contested       Won      Vote Share           Assembly district leads
UDF                     20                12             42.48%                       80
 INC                     15                 8              31.47%                       57
 IUML                    2                  2                4.59%                       11  
 KEC(M)                 1                  1                2.39%                        7  
 RSP                      1                  1                2.30%                        4
 SJD                      1                  0                1.73%                        1

LDF                     20                  8             40.59%                       56
 CPM                    10                 5              21.84%                       36
 CPI                       4                 1                7.68%                         9
 JD(S)                    1                 0                1.71%                         0
 Independents       5                  2               9.36%                        11

NDA                    20                  0             10.94%                         4
 BJP                    18                  0              10.45%                        4
 RSPK(B)              1                   0                0.24%                        0
 Independents      1                   0                0.25%                        0

RSP left LDF and joined UDF after the 2011 assembly elections.

RSPK(B) is Revolutionary Socialist Party Of Kerala (Bolshevik) and was a RSP splinter before merging with JSS.  Then it split from JSS and allied with the BJP.  It shows how funny Kerela politics has become when an ally of BJP has the workd "Bolshievik" in it.  Anyway NDA for 2015 assembly elections will include BJP, RSPK(BK), KEC(T), LJP, and KEC(N) as the KEC splinters never cease.

As mentioned before SJD merged into JD(U) which will be part of UDF.

[jaichind]

The big bang of Assam politics was the migration issue which started in 1971 when Bangladesh was formed.  As a result of that war, large number Bangladesh Hindus migrated to Assam.  Around the same time due to increasing population pressure Bengali speaking Muslims from Bangladesh as well as Bengali speaking Hindus from WB also started to migrate to Assam which had a much lower population density.  This suited the dominate INC fine as the INC started to use these new migrants as a pool of voters to keep voting INC back into power.  Over time the dominate Caste Hindu Assamese population started to feel threatened and as a result started something called the "Assam Movement" led by AASU in the early 1980s which culminated in the Assam Accord of 1985 which called for deporting all illegal migrates into Assam after 1971.  AGP as an Assamese regional party which is latent anti-Bengali formed out of the AASU movement.   The Assam Accord was never really implemented and Bengali migration into Assam from Bangladesh and WB continued.  Over time Lower Assam became more Muslim dominated and some districts in Lower Assam became Muslim (and also Bengali speaking) dominated.  Same is true for Barak Valley.  In both regions AIUDF became the dominate Muslim communal party fighting the INC for the Muslim vote.  Upper Assam continued to be Assamese Hindu dominated but with an increasing number of Muslims.  The BJP tries to gain support by jumping on the anti-migration movement by making it an anti-Bengali Muslim movement instead of just an anti-Bengali movement like the AGP advocates.   The Central Assam Hills region continued to be dominated by various tribals.  This underdeveloped region has various tribal movements to form an independent state separate from Assam.  The ASDC and HSDC are the tribal based parties which are pushing for this.



Within Lower Assam we also have the Bodoland controversy.   Bodos are a large tribal group which dominates a part of Lower Assam which also demanded a separate Bodoland.  The migration of Bengali Hindus, Bengali Muslims and Assamese Hindus into Bodoland adds to the insecurity of the Bodo which fuels this movements.  BPF and BPPF are the main Bodo parties which are pushing for an autonomous and eventually separate Bodoland state with the BPF being the more dominate of the two Bodo parties even as BPF is a moderate splinter of BPPF.   An autonomous Bodo BTC was formed to satisfy these Bodo demands although even in BTC Bodos are not the majority and just the plurality.        



Over the years INC ahd BPF have aligned to help advance the Bodoland autonomous movement even as INC tries to corner the non-Bodo vote in BTC.   In Bodoland it used to be INC vs BPF  but now BJP is coming in to capture the non-Bodo Hindu vote and AIUDF is coming to capture the non-Bodo Muslim vote.  BPPF is also there trying to capture the Bodo vote from BPF.  BJP and AGP have done business in the past to consolidate the Assamese Hindu in Lower and Upper Assam vote even as AGP sometimes allies with Left Front.  Due to the rise of the Bengali Hindu vote which BJP wishes to court AGP and BJP have drifted.  In  Central Assam Hills it is often INC vs ASDC/HSDC.   In non-Bodo Lower Assam as well as  Barak Valley it is INC vs AIUDF to fight over the ever larger Muslim vote while BJP and AGP tries to corner the ever smaller Hindu vote with BJP focused on the Bengali Hindu vote and AGP the Assamese Hindu vote.  With the growth of Bengali Hindus in Assam AITC which is THE WB regional party is also trying to expand in Assam.

In 2011 Assembly results it was the INC that won by beating out AIUDF by winning enough Muslims away from AIUDF as well as AGP/BJP for Hindu votes.  AGP and BJP split the anti-INC Hindu vote between them in Upper and Lower Assam and INC was able to defeat AGP BJP and AIUDF who split the non-INC vote between them.  INC lost in Bodoland to BPF but was able to co-op BPF after the elections.  INC also defeated ASDC/HSDC in the Central Assam Hills region.  I constructed the result chart by mapping the various independents to the right categories as well as lumping in independents which are supported by a party into the results of said party.


The map mislabeled AGP as AJP.   Also, it is obvious, all wins in Bodoland for BPF/AUDF are for BPF and all wins for BPF/AUDF outside Bodoland aer for AIUDF.

2011 Assam Assembly election

Party                       Contested                Win             Vote Share
INC                              126                     78                  39.38%
INC rebels                        4                       1                    1.07%
AIUDF                            78                     18                  12.58%
AIUDF rebels                    2                       0                    0.40%
AGP                              105                    10                   16.86%
AGP rebels                       4                       1                     0.88%  
BPF                                29                     12                    6.14%
BPPF                                7                       0                     1.30%
BJP                              120                       5                   11.46%
ASDC/HSDC                     5                       0                     1.28%
AITC                            103                       1                     2.05%
ex-ULFA                          2                        0                     0.40%

ULFA is an extremist terrorist group that grew out of AASU and has been pushing for Assam independence and dominated by Assamese Hindus.  They have mostly given up fighting and some ex-leaders of ULFA have entered politics some running for office.

[jaichind]

2014 Assam LS election along with Assembly district leads

                    Contested             Won            Vote Share                Assembly leads
UPA                    14                     3                 31.54%                       24
 INC                    13                     3                 29.90%                       23
 BPF                      1                     0.                  1.63%                         1

INC rebel              1                     0                   0.42%                          0
non-UPA BPF        1                     0                    0.58%                         0

NDA                   14                     7                 38.73%                        69
 BJP                    13                     7                 36.86%                        69
 BPF rebel             1                     0                   1.87%                          0

AIUDF                10                     3                  14.98%                       24                
AGP                    12                     0                   3.87%                          0
Anti-BPF               1                     1                    4.25%                         9
ASDC                   1                      0                   0.72%                          0
AITC                   12                     0                   0.71%                          0


The INC formed a partial alliance with BPF in core Bodoland but it was no avail.  The Assamese Hindu vote defected from AGP vote bloc tactically vote for BJP while the anti-INC Muslim vote tactically voted for AIUDF.  The BJP also won the Bengali Hindu vote beating back the AITC.  In Bodoland the Bodo vote with split with a BPF rebel running with NDA while all non-Bodos in Bodoland united around an ex-ULFA candidate to win the seat in core Bodoland where in theory Bodos are in a plurality but the insecurity of all non-Bodos lead them to unite against the two Bodo candidates.  BPF also ran a candidate against INC outside of core Bodoland and cost INC a seat as the BJP captured enough of the non-Bodo vote to win.  In Lower Assam the AIUDF beat INC in a few seats as the BJP captured enough of the Hindu vote away from INC.  In Upper Assam AIUDF took enough of the Muslim vote to give BJP a win as the Hindu vote consolidated behind BJP.  Basically there was an anti-incumbent vote against UPA which produced seats for AIUDF and BJP even as INC did retain its core vote.

[jaichind]

For this upcoming elections the pattern of alliances are the following

1) JD(U) is trying to get INC and AIUDF to come to a set of tactical alliances if not a full fledged alliance.  The second would be hard since INC and AIUDF are in direct competition in Muslim parts of Lower Assam and Barak Valley which both see as key to winning seats to be relevant as a force in Assam politics.  If they can overcome this then there is a lot of room for cooperation in Upper Assam. Although such an alliance could trigger more AGP ssamese Hindu tactical voting for BJP.

2) The anti-BFP alliance of 2014 mostly broke up so now it is everyone for himself.  The BJP which is trying to project itself as the Bengali Hindu party in Bodoland is looking for an alliance with BPF.  Such an alliance could do very well in a splintered situation in Bodoland especially if BPPF does not manage to capture the Bodo base from BPF.

3) The key to BJP repeating what it accomplished in 2014 is the retention of the Bengali AND Assamese Hindu vote bases.  The AGP Assamese Hindu vote base completely went over to BJP as THE Anti-INC party.  it is not clear it will work this time.  The BJP is working overtime to lock up the Bengali  Hindu vote to the point where it passed an ordinance which gives a path for Bengali Hindus from Bangladesh to become citizens.  This could lead to a backlash from Assamese Hindus which could turn  back to the AGP.  The BJP feels compelled to do this as AITC which is the WB ruling party is making a big push into Assam to capture the Bengali Hindu vote.

The AGP performance will determine the race.  If AGP can get into the double digits in terms of vote share then the INC will have the upper hand.  If AGP is reduced to low single digits AND INC/AIUDF could not form tactical alliances then the BJP with its BPF ally should be the dominate political power after the elections.

My initial guess that neither will take place and it will be a splintered result with neither BJP nor INC having a large advantage over the other although I expect BJP-BPF alliance, if formed, to do well in Bodoland.

[jaichind]

In TN, the big bang of politics was also 1977 when the AIADMK which was a DMK splinter emerged as the second pole of politics to DMK with INC pushed to third place.  AIADMK faced off against DMK as rival populist parties.  Since then the INC became the kingmaker where it tended to ally with one or the other with the side the INC chooses tending to win.  This persisted until the early 1990s when a series of splinters, populist, regional parties and caste based parties emerged which by the late 1980s created the era of mega alliances where AIADMK and DMK raced to build rival grand alliances with the better built alliance winning.  The culture of alliances became built in where all parties tended to be effective at transferring their vote their allies which in turn reinforced the political cultural of alliances.  Beyond the topic of competitive populism there is als the issue of competitive radicalism on support for the Tamil case of Sri Lanka including latent support for LTTE.   Also anti-Brahmanism is also another topic of mobilization.  DMK was based on anti-Brahmanism and so is in theory AIADMK even though the leader of AIADMK and current CM of TN Jayalalitha is herself a Brahman.   The significant players beyond the national parties of INC, BJP, CPI, CPM, and AIFB are a series of TN only parties.  Beyond DMK and AIADMK they are

DMDK - new rival populist party based on the actor Vijayakanth.  Pretty much the third most powerful force in TN after AIADMK and DMK
PMK - a Northern TN regional party based on the backward castes of Northern TN
MDMK - DMK splinter
VCK - Dalit based TN party
KMK - Kongunadu (or Northwest TN) regional party
MNMK - Dalit/Muslim based party  
PT - Dalit and lower caste party based in Southern TN
TMC - TN INC splinter, formed back in 1996 and merged back into INC in 2002 only to split out again in 2014.


Different regions of TN including Kongu Nadu

During the era of grand alliances of 1998-2011 the blocs that were formed are the following for each election during this period

1998 LS election:
AIADMK+PMK+BJP+MDMK+JP vs DMK+TMC+CPI vs INC+MAIADMK(AIADMK splinter)

1999 LS election
DMK+PMK+BJP+MDMK+MAIADMK+TRC(INC splinter) vs AIADMK+INC+CPI+CPM vs TMC+PT+JD(S)

2001 Assembly election
AIADMK+TMC+PMK+INC+CPI-CPM+AIFB+IUML (Muslim league) vs DMK+BJP+MAIADMK+PT+MTD(caste party)+PNK(caste party)+MGRK(AIADMK splinter)+TB(caste party)+CNMKM(caste party) vs MDMK

2004 LS election
DMK+INC+PMK+MDMK+CPI+CPM vs AIADMK+BJP vs JD(U)+PT+DPI(Dalit party)+MTD+INL(IUML splinter)

2006 assembly election
DMK+INC+PMK+CPI+CPM vs AIADMK+MDMK+VCK vs DMDK vs BJP

2009 LS election
DMK+INC+VCK vs AIADMK+PMK+MDMK+CPI+CPM vs DMDK vs BJP+MNMK

2011 Assembly election
AIADMK+DMDK+CPM+CPI+MNMK+PT+AIFB vs DMK+INC+PMK+VCK+KMK vs BJP

In 2011 in particular DMDK decided to try to break the DMK winning streak by joining the AIADMK alliance.  This turned the tide and was the first time that the Dravidian party which had a united INC had joined lost an election since 1980.  It was



2011 TN Assembly election

                                Contested            Won                 Vote share
AIADMK+                        234                203                   51.80%
 AIADMK                          165                150                   38.41%
 DMDK                               41                 29                      7.88%
 CPM                                  12                 10                      2.41%
 CPI                                   10                   9                      1.97%
 MNMK                                3                   2                       0.49%
 PT                                      2                   2                       0.40%
 AIFB                                  1                   1                       0.24%

AIADMK rebels                    2                    0                       0.13%

DMK+ (UPA)                   234                 31                     39.44%
 DMK                              124                  23                     23.39%
 INC                                 63                    5                       9.30%
 PMK                                30                    3                       5.23%
 VCK                                10                    0                       1.51%
 KMK                                 7                     0                       1.00%  

DMK rebels                        8                    0                        0.71%
INC rebels                         1                    0                        0.07%

BJP                                 204                  0                        2.22%

[jaichind]

By-election for MP LS seat Ratlam where the BJP incumbent passed away saw the INC capture the seat in an high turnout by-election defeating the BJP candidate who is the daughter of the deceased incumbent .  In 2014 it was BJP 50.4 INC 40.4.  Now It is INC 51.4 BJP 42.9.  The INC candidate also won this seat in 2009 48.4 vs BJP 39.4 but lost to the BJP in 2014.  Now he is back.

BJP did retain a MP assembly seat.

[jaichind]

By the time TN LS elections came around in 2014 a lot has changed since 2011.  The style of Jayalalitha in power always repels allies.  She is only capable of retaining allies out of power.  So allies or potential allies like DMDK, PMK, and MDMK all drifted away from AIADMK.  AIADMK had no problems with this because if figured it could cash in on the anti-UPA wave by linking DMK to INC.  DMK at this stage felt compelled to break its alliance with INC.  There were some talk of Left Front having an alliance with AIADMK, but Jayalalitha only offered the CPI and CPM one seat each and the Left Front rejected the offer.  There also some talk of an AIADMK and BJP alliance but AIADMK felt that it was not worth it and that the BJP would not add that much.  DMDK, PMK, and MDMK did not see much future in INC or DMK so they joined up with BJP hoping to cash in on the Modi wave.  As a result of the split of the non-AIADMK vote the AIADMK had a near complete sweep of the polls all by itself.


2014 TN LS election results

                      Contested          Won           Vote share
AIADMK             39                    37                44.91%

DMK+               39                      0                27.19%
 DMK                 34                     0                 23.92%
 VCK                   2                      0                  1.51%
 PT                     1                      0                  0.66%
 MKK                  1                      0                  0.59%
 IMUL                 1                      0                  0.51%

NDA                 38                      2                 18.79%
 BJP                    9                      1                  5.55%
 DMDK              14                      0                  5.19%
 PMK                   8                      1                  4.51%
 MDMK                7                      0                  3.54%

INC                  39                       0                  4.37%

Left Front         17                      0                   1.10%
 CPM                  9                      0                    0.55%
 CPI                   8                      0                    0.55%

The reason for the landslide defeat is because the main opposition which is DMK was caught in a catch-22.  There is a significant anti-INC vote and the DMK felt that it could not be allied with the INC or else it would be crushed.  But by cutting ties with INC the DMK was not seen to be competitive by the anti-AIADMK bloc which many went over to the NDA.  All this played right into the AIADMK hands.  The anti-INC vote mostly went to AIADMK and the anti-AIADMK vote was split between the DMK+ bloc and NDA, handing a landslide victory for AIADMK.  In retrospect had DMK+ included the INC in its alliance it could perhaps won over some of the anti-AIADMK vote in addition to the INC vote and win a high single digit number of seats. Instead it got 0 along with INC.

After the election Jayalalitha was arrested for corruption, convicted, stripped of the CM role, put in jail, then the High Court of India reverse the verdict and put back into the role of CM again.  This only seem to serve to add to the appeal of Jayalalitha.  INC itself split after 2014 LS elections where TMC, which had split from INC in 1996 before merging back into INC in 2002 split out again.  DMK is going through a leadership generational change.  The DMDK-BJP-MDMK-PMK alliance of 2014 also broke up with DMDK DMK and PMK all deserting BJP.  2016 TN assembly election could be the first in TN since 1984 where the ruling party came back into power.  1989 1991 1996 2001 2006 and 2011 all involved the ruling party being ousted.   This time AIADMK could break the trend.  The only way to stop her, it seems to me, is for a mega anti-AIADMK alliance of DMK DMDK PMK MDMK INC TMC Left Front plus the various community based minor parities all gang up in AIADMK just like in 2004.  This does not seem that likely right now.  For now, MDMK-VCK-CPI-CPM has formed an alliance and seems to be trying to get PMK, DMDK, and TMC to join it so they can eventually bargain with DMK.

[jaichind]

For WB, the big bang of the current system is a combination of 1977 when the continued Left Front domination was created and 2009 when that domination was broken.  In 1977 all Left parities united under the Left Front which includes CPM CPI AIFB and RSP.  This combination was able to pretty much capture a vote share of 46%-52% throughout the 1977-2009 period and was able to beat INC which pretty much had a vote share in the low 40s each time.  In 1998 AITC split from INC claiming that INC, due to national compulsions to block NDA, could not put up a real fight against the Left Front.  This left the non-Left Front parties at around AITC 30% INC 12% BJP 5% as far as vote base is concerned.  The AITC saw that the only way to defeat Left Front is to form a grand alliance of AITC INC and BJP which was not possible.  AITC then tried various alliances with BJP and then INC and back to BJP again.  Even as the AITC gained strength on the personality of Mamata Banerjee  this worked in the short run to split the anti-Left Front vote and gave the Left Front landslide victories in 2004 LS and 2006 Assembly elections.  But by 2009 anti-incumbency was finally catching up with Left Front and AITC saw its chance to ditch the BJP as the UPA turned on the Left Front as well to join up with INC.  This paved the way to the historic defeat of the Left Front in 2009 LS elections



2009 WB LS elections

                    Contested              Won                  Vote share
UPA                    42                     26                        45.68%
 AITC                  27                     19                        31.18%
 INC                   14                       6                         13.46%
 SUCI                   1                       1                           1.04%

Left Front           42                     15                        43.31%
 CPM                   32                      9                         33.11%  
 CPI                     3                       2                           3.60%
 RSP                    4                       2                           3.56%
 AIFB                   3                       2                           3.04%

BJP                    42                       1                           6.14%

BSP                    41                      0                           1.02%
JMM                     7                      0                            0.26%
AIUDF                14                      0                           0.51%

SUCI is an old WB CPI splinter that aligned with UPA this time.  The seat BJP was because of BJP's alliance with GJM which is a Gorkhaland regional party that is for the creation of a separate Gorkhaland state for the Nepali speaking Gorkhas.   Even as the Left Front is defeated it still retained a respectable vote share.  But this was just the beginning of the downward slide for the Left Front.  



In 2011 Assembly elections the UPA followed up its victory in 2009 by ousting the Left Front from the WB state government in a much more convincing fashion as all the anti-Left Front vote fused around UPA.



2011 WB Assembly elections

                    Contested              Won                  Vote share
UPA                   294                   226                      48.14%
 AITC                 226                   184                      38.92%
 INC                    66                     42                        9.09%
 JKP(N)                 1                       0                         0.11%
 NCP                     1                       0                         0.03%

INC rebels           20                       1                        1.31%
AITC rebels           3                       0                         0.19%

Left Front          294                    62                      41.03%  
 CPM                  213                    40                      30.07%
 AIFB                   34                    11                        4.80%
 RSP                    23                      7                        2.96%
 CPI                     14                      2                        1.84%
 SP                        5                      1                        0.74%
 DSP(P)                 2                      1                        0.35%
 RCPI(R)                2                      0                        0.23%
 RJD                      1                      0                        0.05%

NDA                  294                      4                        4.92%
 BJP                   289                     0                        4.06%
 GJM                      5                     4                        0.86%

SUCI                   30                      1                        0.44%
BSP                   150                      0                        0.61%    
JMM                    30                      0                        0.47%

DSP(P) is a fairly old WB splinter from the Janata party of the late 1970s.  Like SUCI, RCPI(R) is an old WB CPI splinter.  With the Left Front clearly in a weakened state, there were a lot of rebellion in the UPA camp toward the AITC-INC alliance, especially INC rebels many of them from Muslim areas who are still suspicious of AITC's old alliances with BJP.  None of this stopped a landslide victory for UPA.   NDA wins again are mostly based on the BJP support for GJM and its push for Gorkhaland.  AITC and INC also adopted the tradition in national-local party alliances of over-allocation of seats to the national party in LS elections and under-allocation of seats for the national party in assembly elections.  Looking at the 2009 and 2011 results we can estimate the INC support to be around 12% and AITC around 37% in 2011.  Left Front declined to 41% but still seems capable of a comeback if the AITC government stumbles.  

[jaichind]

After 2011 Assembly elections the AITC and INC had a falling out which seems natural given Mamata Banerjee's personality plus the fact that the threat of Left Front domination is not there to glue AITC and INC together.  As 2014 LS election approached, it was clear that there was going to be a wave against UPA and that a BJP surge was coming.  This worked to further separate AITC and INC.  AITC saw that given the backlash against UPA the INC vote base was vulnerable.  AITC worked to capture part of the INC vote base, especially the Muslim sections by running against the BJP the entire campaign.  The AITC worked to push the narrative of the BJP surge so it can capture the vulnerable INC base as well as split the anti-AITC vote by pushing anti-AITC voters toward BJP.  In this sense what AITC planned for WB is the same as AIADMK for TN where AIADMK sought to make sure the anti-AIADMK is split between NDA and DMK Front.  The result worked out the way the AITC planned it and was a successful solid victory for AITC.

2014 WB LS elections

                     Contested              Won                  Vote share                   Assembly leads

AITC                   42                     34                         39.79%                      214

Left Front           42                       2                         29.94%                        28
 CPM                   32                       2                         22.96%                       22
 RSP                     4                       0                           2.46%                         3
 CPI                      3                       0                           2.36%                         2
 AIFB                    3                       0                           2.17%                         1

BJP                     42                      2                          17.02%                        24

INC                    42                      4                            9.69%                        28

SUCI                  37                      0                            0.69%                          0
BSP                    38                      0                            0.49%                          0
AIUDF                  8                      0                            0.19%                          0
JMM                     7                      0                            0.12%                          0

There was a drift of the INC vote base mostly toward AITC took place.  At the same time given the fact that Left Front was losing support a whole chunk of anti-AITC Left Front votes drifted to BJP to try to defeat AITC.  This help defeat Left Front in a number of seats without really helping BJP.  BJP only won its Gorkha based seat based on its alliance with GJM and another seat where BJP nominated a famous actor whose personal pull created an unusually large swing toward BJP.  INC did win in a few of its strongholds but beyond that its base mostly gone over to AITC.

For the 2016 Assembly elections it is clear that BJP heading downward again.  The Modi surge PLUS tactical voting by anti-ATIC Left Front voters did not deliver victory in 2014.  Being that is the case the Left Front tactical voters will most likely head back to Left Front.  Within the INC there are two factions.  One advocates alliance with AITC to make sure that BJP is beaten.  The other faction contends that BJP is beaten already and that it is time to deal with AITC as an opponent via an alliance with Left Front.  

[jaichind]

http://www.dailyo.in/politics/winter-session-of-parliament-narendra-modi-rajya-sabha-opposition-2019-parliament/story/1/7631.html

Is a good article on the outlook on NDA position in Upper House.    It shows the current status as NDA and pro-NDA only having 33% of the Upper House seats.



Where AIADMK and BJD are counted as pro-NDA.

It projects that 3 years from now the positions of the various blocs will look like even if BJP does fairly well in assembly elections over the next couple of years.  The wild card is UP.  NDA can get to 80 seats in 3 years ONLY if it sweeps UP elections which looks less and less likely as times goes on.



With NDA and pro-NDA blocs still in the minority.  YSRCP will be counted as neutral since it can be pro-NDA only at the expense of angering TDP.  

This means unless NDA makes a deal with the anti-NDA opposition, reform measures that the NDA wants to pass will be difficult.   One way is to somehow make a deal with SP but that will come with cost of BJP gains in UP assembly elections.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Am I right in saying there is no effective difference between AIADMAK and the DMK? Except the latter is more corrupt and the former more creepy and authoritarian?

Heavy flooding in TN at the moment.

[jaichind]

Am I right in saying there is no effective difference between AIADMAK and the DMK? Except the latter is more corrupt and the former more creepy and authoritarian?

Heavy flooding in TN at the moment.

Both AIADMK and DMK are Tamil populist parties based on the Dravidian anti-Brahmin and anti-caste principles, in theory.  I would not say that neither is necessary more corrupt than the other.  In fact on the whole I would say despite what ones sees on TV the level of corruption is lower than Indian average and the quality of governance is higher than Indian average.  In practice the DMK is much more focused on mobilizing lower castes against upper castes than AIADMK.  AIADMK is much more about Hindu consolidation than DMK.  Jayalalitha, leader of AIADMK, being a Brahmin herself is a major reason for this.  Both has to do this at a subtle level since Dravidian politics in theory atheist and is against all caste based or religious mobilization.  Both parties does take turns being more extremist on the Sri Lanka Tamil issue but that is mostly a way to get votes than any core beliefs. 

[jaichind]

Last and in fact least we have Puducherry.  Puducherry is made up of various French colonial enclaves of India it is mostly really part of TN from a population point of view.  It does include small sections that are in Kerela and AP.  As a result politics in Puducherry most rotate around TN politics.  INC historically has been the more dominate party with AIADMK and DMK taking turns being allied with INC and part of the INC led government.  What usually upsets this arrangement are the rise of Puducherry based INC splinters which would split the INC vote to defeat it and or become part of an alternative ruling coalition.  Over time TN parties like PMK and DMDK also arrived in Puducherry as well.




The 2011 Puducherry assembly elections saw the creation of another INC splinter AINRC take over large section of the INC vote base and become the ruling party of Puducherry defeating the UPA which mostly consists of INC and DMK.

2011 Puducherry assembly elections

                     Contested              Won                  Vote share    

UPA                    30                      9                        40.41%
 INC                    17                     7                        26.53%
 DMK                  10                      2                        10.68%
 PMK                    2                       0                         2.48%  
 Independent       1                       0                         0.71%

DMK rebels          2                       1                          2.34%
INC rebels           6                       0                          3.58%

AINRC bloc         30                     20                       48.32%
 AINRC               17                     15                       31.75%
 AIADMK            10                      5                         13.75%
 CPM                   1                       0                          1.03%
 CPI                    1                       0                          0.94%
 DMDK                1                       0                          0.85%

AIADMK rebels    2                       0                          1.31%
DMDK rebels       1                       0                          0.37%
AINRC rebels      1                        0                         0.36%
 
BJP                   20                       0                          1.32%

Both the UPA and AINRC bloc were hit by rebellions with UPA being hurt more by it but one way or another the AINRC bloc one way or another.  After the AINRC won the elections with the AIADMK, in a fashion which AIADMK chief Jayalalitha would applaud if she were not the victim of the move, AINRC got the DMK rebel independent MLA to join AINRC and dumped the AIADMK to form the government by itself.   This turned the AIADMK into a bitter enemy of AINRC.

For 2014 LS elections AINRC joined NDA since it could not count on AIADMK which ran by itself.  BJP tried to get an AINRC and PMK to form an alliance as both are NDA  parties but a deal could not be worked out so both parties ran separately.   As in TN INC and DMK broke up and ran separately.

2014 Puducherry LS elections


                     Contested              Won                  Vote share                   Assembly leads
AINRC                  1                       1                        35.6%                            19
INC                      1                       0                        27.2%                              5
AIADMK               1                       0                         18.5%                             5  
DMK                    1                       0                           8.4%                              1
PMK                     1                       0                          3.2%                              0
CPI                      1                       0                           1.8%                              0

The election result seems to show that AINRC INC AIADMK all mostly retained their vote bases but it its is the DMK that seems to be on the downward slide.  With the relative decline of the BJP after the LS elections there are signs that AINRC which ruled by itself after it broke up with AIADMK might look toward another alliance with AIADMK to beat back the INC.  Another reason for this move seems to be rumors of rebellions inside AINRC which makes AIADMK support even more critical.  If the AINRC-AIADMK alliances is revived that might push INC and DMK to revive their alliance or face certain defeat in 2016.

[jaichind]

Opening gambits in Assam.  BJP claims that INC and AIUDF has a scheme to led in millions of Bangladesh Muslims into Assam which in turn will eventually make Assam part of Bangladesh.   INC claims that AIUDF is being bribed by BJP to run candidates in all 126 seats in Assam in order to split the Muslim vote.  This pretty much sets the tone for the elections.  BJP will run on turning Assamese fears into fears of Muslim hoards.  INC will run on marginalization of AIUDF especially in Upper Assam so to consolidate the anti-BJP vote.  Both strategies have its weaknesses.  BJP's argument which was very powerful in 2014 is now much weaker now that the NDA is in charge at the center and no real action has taken place to expel illegal migrants.  INC's strategy which is really meant for Upper Assam can only work if the BJP cannot consolidate the Hindu vote by taking over the AGP base like it did in 2014.  But doing what it is doing by appealing openly for Muslim votes makes such a consolidation more likely.   

[jaichind]

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/gujarat-civic-polls-bjp-blames-patel-stir-for-poor-show-in-rural-areas/story-fWjWcgfvu1HdsyUZMg89oJ.html

Another blow for Modi in his own home state.

Modi-less BJP in Gujarat suffered a setback in local polls which took place last couple of weeks.  While the BJP was able to hold on to urban areas with reduced majorities, the INC swept the rural local councils know as panchayats in India.  The INC was competitive in Gujarat local polls well into the 1990s even as the BJP became dominate at the assembly level since mid 1990s.  But with the arrival of Modi as CM of Gujarat in 2002 the INC was slowly being decimated at the local level as well to the point that by the 2010 the INC was pretty much pushed out all levels.  Now the INC is very competitive in urban areas, neck-to-neck with the BJP in suburban areas and dominates rural areas.  If these results are replicated in 2017 Gujarat assembly elections then the the INC and BJP will be neck-to-neck.  One reason for this setback are the Patel rebellion against the BJP.  Patels are a dominate caste in Gujarat which used to vote for INC and helped in keeping INC dominate in Gujarat until the 1980s.  The the INC in the 1980s, based on the KHAM theory (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim)  of electoral mobilization, alienated  the Patels who went over to the BJP.  The Patels earlier this year demanded that Patels be counted as an OBC caste to benefit from reservations claiming that they are being taken for granted by the BJP.  As the confrontation between Patels and the BJP increased (even as the BJP CM Anandiben Patel  is a Patel herself) various Patels organizations especially in rural areas vowed to count out to defeat BJP.  Looks like they got their wish.

It seems that if the Patel rebellion continues then a Modi-less BJP in Gujarat will become neck-to-neck with INC in what was the most pro-BJP state in India.

[jaichind]

AIUDF and INC seems to have ruled out an pre-election alliance in Assam.  AIUDF seems to want to form a grand alliance of anti-INC anti-BJP forces by forming a front that consist of AGP JD(U) and AITC.   BPF is trying to form an alliance of various tribal parties into a UPF front.  It seems more and more likely that UPF will be aligned with BJP. 

In WB it seems that JD(U) and RJD are backing AITC while INC and Left Front might be forming an alliance as the pro-Left Front bloc inside INC seems to be gaining strength.  

[jaichind]

Looks like AGP is talking to all sides.  There are talks between BJP and AGP for an anti-INC alliance.  The AGP wants 38 seats while the BJP will only part with 30 and faces backlashes within the party.  The basis of such an alliance which would include BPF would be an anti-immigrant stance.   The INC and AGP are in talks as well which would focus on common center-left roots of INC and AGP.  Also the JD(U) is facilitating AGP AIUDF talks for an alliance that would focus on Assam regionalism as AGP and AIUDF are mostly Assam regional parities.  BJP splinter LDP is also getting into the act.  There are talks that LDP might align with INC.

[Famous Mortimer]

An AGP AIUDF alliance seems pretty ridiculous. Kind of like DUP and Sinn Fein running together because they're both regionalist parties. Still, I guess it's no weirder than the BJP and all their little socialist friends.

[jaichind]

An AGP AIUDF alliance seems pretty ridiculous. Kind of like DUP and Sinn Fein running together because they're both regionalist parties. Still, I guess it's no weirder than the BJP and all their little socialist friends.

Yes, but that might exactly be the way AGP has to go to avoid becoming a second rate party in Assam and perhaps extinction as the AGP and AIUDF base complement each other.  The core of AGP base is in Upper Assam.  INC did well in 2011 Assembly elections in Upper Assam and BJP did well in 2014 LS elections in Upper Assam because both parties were  seen in the election they did well as the party to stop AIUDF.  If AIUDF is seen as doing well in non-Bodoland Lower Assam then the Assamese Hindu vote in Upper Assam will consolidate behind INC or more likely BJP.   This repeated transfer of the AGP vote base to BJP or INC which has been taking place since 1996 has weakened the party and will continue.  An AGP alliance with BJP or INC will most likely only accelerate this process.  An alliance with AIUDF ironically might be the only way out to try to glue the non anti-AIUDF Assamese Hindu vote to the AIUDF vote base in Upper Assam and hope that BJP and INC split the rest.  Or else the AGP has to hope that AIUDF is not doing well in Lower Assam so AGP can take on BJP and INC without dealing with anti-AIUDF consolidation. 

What a BJP-BPF-AGP alliance will have to answer in terms of policy consistency is "Should all non-Assamese migrants be deported or non-Hindu migrants be deported?"  AGP and BPF would be for deporting Hindu but non-Assamese/Bodo migrants while BJP is for deporting Muslims only.

What a AGP-AIUDF alliance will have to answer is more fundamental which is "should deportation of migrants be a priority or not."  So while on the ground AGP-AIUDF vote base being complimentary is positive how to thread the needle on the deportation question.  I guess if they go for this alliance they will just somehow work around it by focusing on Assamese autonomy.   

[jaichind]

In WB, AITC seems to be making moves to try to move closer to INC.  It seems to be an attempt to either form an alliance with INC or at least to prevent an Left Front-INC alliance.  During the 2014 LS elections and right after that the AITC was mostly targeting BJP as its main enemy most because the BJP was in the ascendancy and it was a good way to get the BJP to split the anti-AITC vote with Left Front.  Now the BJP  is in decline and will most likely win around 10% of the vote in the upcoming assembly elections as opposed to the 17% in the 2014 LS elections, the AITC sense is that the Left Front will become its main enemy in the assembly elections.  AITC also assumes that the fall of the BJP vote will flow back to Left Front which will make it a neck-to-neck race between AITC and Left Front.  If the INC who will also have a vote base of 10% were to join Left Front in an alliance that could spell big trouble for AITC as the AITC will not have the option of an alliance with the BJP without looking like a complete hypocrite.  The only option left is to woo INC to perhaps join AITC and at least build up the anti-Left Front faction within INC to prevent a Left Front-INC alliance. 

[jaichind]

ECI declared that elections for Assam,Kerela,Tamil Nadu,Puducherry,West Bengal will be held in April-May next year and will finish “well before May 24”