Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the election isn't this year I'll have to change the title

Basically this is the polls, links, analysis etc. thread for the next Canadian election (likely in either a few weeks or a few months).

And yes I will sticky it. I'm nice really

http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/index.html is a good site to try. Can be quite fun.

[minionofmidas]

No, their Saskatchewan predictions depress me too much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ipsos-Reid poll (released 14th May).

Canada

CPC: 31 (n/c)
LPC: 27 (-5)
NDP: 19 (+3)

Ontario
The Conservative Party 34% +1
The Liberals 32% -12
The NDP 22% +5
The Green Party 8% +4

Quebec
The Conservative Party 10% -1
The Liberals 15% -5
The NDP 11% -1
The Bloc Quebecois 56% +6
The Green Party 4% 0

British Columbia

The Conservative Party 31% +4
The Liberals 32% +2
The NDP 23% -2
The Green Party 12% -3

Alberta
The Conservative Party 59% -4
The Liberals 24% +4
The NDP 11% +6
The Green Party 5% -1

Saskatchewan/Manitoba
The Conservative Party 36% -16
The Liberals 28% +7
The NDP 28% +5
The Green Party 5% +4

Atlantic Canada
The Conservative Party 34% +2
The Liberals 35% -10
The NDP 27% +10
The Green Party 0% -3  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, their Saskatchewan predictions depress me too much.

They're track record on Sask... is... not good. Mind you, voting patterns out there have been so fickle of late it's hardly suprising.
Interestingly the NDP have been gaining in Manitoba/Sask in most pre-election polls this time round (see above). It'll be interesting to see if that stays.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Ipsos-Reid poll (released 14th May).

Canada

CPC: 31 (n/c)
LPC: 27 (-5)
NDP: 19 (+3)

Ontario
The Conservative Party 34% +1
The Liberals 32% -12
The NDP 22% +5
The Green Party 8% +4

Quebec
The Conservative Party 10% -1
The Liberals 15% -5
The NDP 11% -1
The Bloc Quebecois 56% +6
The Green Party 4% 0

British Columbia

The Conservative Party 31% +4
The Liberals 32% +2
The NDP 23% -2
The Green Party 12% -3

Alberta
The Conservative Party 59% -4
The Liberals 24% +4
The NDP 11% +6
The Green Party 5% -1

Saskatchewan/Manitoba
The Conservative Party 36% -16
The Liberals 28% +7
The NDP 28% +5
The Green Party 5% +4

Atlantic Canada
The Conservative Party 34% +2
The Liberals 35% -10
The NDP 27% +10
The Green Party 0% -3  

Interesting poll

Since the party abandoned many of its previous conservative positions, it has lost support in its hearland, the plains provinces.

[Siege40]

My prediction as of May 14, 2005 is...

Libs - 124
Cons - 102
BQ - 55
NDP - 26
Independent - 1

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Guess I'll have to do a prediction like my U.K one... and if it's anything like that I'll do very well in some areas, fairly well in most areas and very badly in one or two areas

[Hatman 🍁]

Guess I'll have to do a prediction like my U.K one... and if it's anything like that I'll do very well in some areas, fairly well in most areas and very badly in one or two areas

What the? Didn't notice this thread until now. Anyways, Al- I challenge you to a dual! I am making predictions at that site as "hatman" - my alter ego.

On a personal note, I think I will work on the campaign of whoever the NDP candidate is in Ottawa Centre, since the NDP doesn't have much of a hope here in the south. (I may not even vote for them- depends on the candidate).

Speaking of my riding, the Conservatives will be nominating former MP Barry Turner.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyways, Al- I challenge you to a dual! I am making predictions at that site as "hatman" - my alter ego.

Challenge accepted. I've made one prediction so far (not up yet) for a certain riding on a large island west of Vancouver. Should be easy to spot when it's up

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New polls out:

Environics: LPC 33, CPC 31, NDP 22, BQ 10

By region:

Atlantic: LPC 43, CPC 30, NDP 25
Quebec: BQ 45, LPC 21, NDP 16, CPC 16
Ontario: LPC 40, CPC 32, NDP 24
Praries: CPC 52, LPC 27, NDP 19
BC: LPC 35, CPC 30, NDP 29

Poll done 4 or so days ago. Note that Alberta is classed as in the Praries

[minionofmidas]

Anyways, Al- I challenge you to a dual! I am making predictions at that site as "hatman" - my alter ego.

Challenge accepted. I've made one prediction so far (not up yet) for a certain riding on a large island west of Vancouver. Should be easy to spot when it's up

Large island west of Vancouver? Sakhalin?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And an even newer poll... with lots and lots of breakdown stuff...

EKOS/Toronto Star

National: LPC 35, CPC 28, NDP 18, BQ 13, Grn 6
-------------------
Atlantic: LPC 43, CPC 29, NDP 25, Grn 4
Quebec: BQ 54, LPC 20, CPC 13, NDP 10, Grn 1
Ontario: LPC 45, CPC 30, NDP 18, Grn 8
Prairies: CPC 37, NDP 30, LPC 28, Grn 3
Alberta: CPC 52, LPC 28, NDP 15, Grn 6
BC: LPC 36, NDP 28, CPC 27, Grn 9
-------------------
Some interesting demographic snippits:

*Liberals have an 11pt lead over the Tories with women, by lead by just 1pt with men
*Liberals lead in all age groups, but are strongest with elderly voters. CPC also strongest with elderly voters. NDP strongest with middle aged voters. Greenies and BQ strongest with younger voters.
*Liberals strongest income group is over $100k (48%), but they're weakest income group is $60-79k (26%) and reasonable level (hovering around 30 give or take MoE) with other groups. Tories strongest income group is $60-79k (36%).
*Tories in fourth place with those earning under 20k (LPC 29, NDP 25, BQ 18, CPC 17).

[minionofmidas]

I guess on those figures, the Liberals would get back in with another minority of roughly the same size, right?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I guess on those figures, the Liberals would get back in with another minority of roughly the same size, right?

Hard to tell... so many seats were so close last time (but if those Prairies and BC figures hold that could work against the Tories as well) and then there's the Quebec collapse... by the looks of those numbers, the Liberals could be reduced to West Island Montreal only...

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyways, Al- I challenge you to a dual! I am making predictions at that site as "hatman" - my alter ego.

Challenge accepted. I've made one prediction so far (not up yet) for a certain riding on a large island west of Vancouver. Should be easy to spot when it's up

I don't know much about Taiwanese politics

Anyways, I've been doing so reading, and it doesn't look to likely that the budget will fail.

See this article: http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/cpress/20050518/ca_pr_on_na/liberals_confidence_vote_2

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ipsos Reid:

National: LPC 34 (+7), CPC 28 (-3), NDP 17 (-2)

Some very odd regional results. Not sure if it marks a big change, or if it's a load of statistical blips:

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[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos Reid:

National: LPC 34 (+7), CPC 28 (-3), NDP 17 (-2)

Some very odd regional results. Not sure if it marks a big change, or if it's a load of statistical blips:

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What's so odd about that (other than tories down in Quebec)?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Other than the huge changes? Well... take a look at the Atlantic numbers for one.

[Hatman 🍁]

Other than the huge changes? Well... take a look at the Atlantic numbers for one.

Huge changes could be based on irregularities- like different polling firms. Atlantic Canada is really a big swing are in my opinion - especially Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick. Just look at 1993 and 1997.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Huge changes could be based on irregularities- like different polling firms.

True. And the massive MoE's. Like I said it could just be a load of statistical blips.

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1997 was a backlash to EI cuts and the collapse of the areas primary industries (and economic base), but yes, the area is prone to big swings.

[minionofmidas]

Rock on Alberta NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rock on Alberta NDP.

Yes, that translates to about approximately 0 seats

[minionofmidas]

Rock on Alberta NDP.

Yes, that translates to about approximately 0 seats

0 to 2, I'd say. But if they keep up this growth rate, they'll be the majority there in two years time!

[Hatman 🍁]

Rock on Alberta NDP.

Yes, that translates to about approximately 0 seats

0 to 2, I'd say. But if they keep up this growth rate, they'll be the majority there in two years time!

2? Where pray tell would they win a second seat? I can see *maybe* Edmonton-Strathcona, but I can't see a 2nd riding. They have never won more than 1 riding in Alberta I think.

[minionofmidas]

Hey -  the increase has to come from somewhere. I hope they don*t gain uniformly again...disproportionate gains from First Nations might put Athapasca (sp?) on the agenda...