Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Siege40]

I heard that too, it was an announcement to reduce press coverage... you got to love it.

I heard Brison might be chasing after the Liberal leadership following Martin. While I admit it's a possibility, I don't know if a turn coat would do really well in the role. Not to mention the whole English-Canadian thing.

I don't think he counts as a turncoat. His party was killed. He had to move to a different one anyway. I wouldn't mind a Scott Brison Prime Ministership, but I would rather a Belinda Stronach or a Sheila Copps

I'm hoping for Bill Graham, personally.

Siege

Hmmm... don't hear his name floated around that much.

He's a pipe dream of mine. One of the few competent Liberals... he'd never get the job.

Siege

[Hatman 🍁]

I heard that too, it was an announcement to reduce press coverage... you got to love it.

I heard Brison might be chasing after the Liberal leadership following Martin. While I admit it's a possibility, I don't know if a turn coat would do really well in the role. Not to mention the whole English-Canadian thing.

I don't think he counts as a turncoat. His party was killed. He had to move to a different one anyway. I wouldn't mind a Scott Brison Prime Ministership, but I would rather a Belinda Stronach or a Sheila Copps

I'm hoping for Bill Graham, personally.

Siege

Hmmm... don't hear his name floated around that much.

He's a pipe dream of mine. One of the few competent Liberals... he'd never get the job.

Siege

No such thing as a competent Liberal. Not under Martin anyways (except for of course, Belinda )

But anyways, in other news NDP MP Bev Desjarlais has become an independent after losing her nomination battle. I am somewhat disappointed at the NDP for forcing her out like that. It's actions like these that make me dislike Paul Martin. But now the NDP?

[Max Power]

Brison will probably run for the leadership, but he'll loose. Belinda will run for the Liberal Leadership, and if she looses, she'll join the NDP (MichaelM's Dream!! ) and run for their leadership. I'm honestly surprised she hasn't pulled any favors from Bill Clinton, after he pulled a few...ahem....favors from her.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brison will probably run for the leadership, but he'll loose. Belinda will run for the Liberal Leadership, and if she looses, she'll join the NDP (MichaelM's Dream!! ) and run for their leadership. I'm honestly surprised she hasn't pulled any favors from Bill Clinton, after he pulled a few...ahem....favors from her.

MichaelM is an idiot, Belinda will never join the NDP. If Newmarket-Aurora was less suburban, and more of a working class city like Hamilton, Oshawa or Windsor, I can see it happening. But Newmarket-Aurora will always vote Liberal or Conservative until Magna gets like 25% of the jobs in the region. (And they would have to be all unionized too)

[Siege40]

Belinda will not hold her seat following the next election.

Siege

[Hatman 🍁]

Belinda will not hold her seat following the next election.

Siege

Of course she will win. The Liberals only lost by a few hundred votes. Her personal popularity won the election for her. It is a natural Liberal seat.

[Siege40]

I think its a trend seat, it was a close election, so that was a close seat, if the liberals slip she'll be in it deep. Animosity will have developed for her party swapping.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think its a trend seat, it was a close election, so that was a close seat, if the liberals slip she'll be in it deep. Animosity will have developed for her party swapping.

Her personal popularity gave the seat to her, and will do it again. The riding is in the "905" belt which used to be rather Conservative leaning, but has dramatically shifted over just a few years. Markham, I recall was the only PC riding in won in 1997, and in 2004 it gave the Liberals the highest % in any riding in Canada outside of Montreal. Newmarket and Aurora are just down the road from Markham. There are differences of course between the South York and North York regions of course. Markham and Vaughan for example are very heterogenous, whereast Newmarket and Aurora are less so. But look at Barrie, which I would say is very similar. It went to the Reform Party (only riding outside of the west to do so) in 1993, and is voting Liberal today.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You have a point about the 905 ridings (something that also showed up in the last provincial elections. PC's lost some seats where they'd cracked 60% in 1999 from what I recall) but that might just be another case of affluent suburban voters in the main suburban belt shifting away from strong support for the conservative party of record, towards a much more fickle and unpredictable stance; if the Liberals lose nationally they'll probably suffer a near wipe-out in the 905 ridings.
The exceptions would be places where the demographics have changed completely in just a few years; Markham is the best example of that, but there are others.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But anyways, in other news NDP MP Bev Desjarlais has become an independent after losing her nomination battle. I am somewhat disappointed at the NDP for forcing her out like that. It's actions like these that make me dislike Paul Martin. But now the NDP?

Not suprising. Is she going to retire or run as an Indie? If the former the NDP should be able to keep the seat fairly easily (she's never been popular outside Flin Flon IIRC), if the latter a weird result like it's twin seat in Sask is pretty likely.
The tendency for parties to force wayward members out is probably the least appealing aspect of Canadian politics and has been for years (although the system of patronage appointments is pretty bad as well).

[Hatman 🍁]

But anyways, in other news NDP MP Bev Desjarlais has become an independent after losing her nomination battle. I am somewhat disappointed at the NDP for forcing her out like that. It's actions like these that make me dislike Paul Martin. But now the NDP?

Not suprising. Is she going to retire or run as an Indie? If the former the NDP should be able to keep the seat fairly easily (she's never been popular outside Flin Flon IIRC), if the latter a weird result like it's twin seat in Sask is pretty likely.
The tendency for parties to force wayward members out is probably the least appealing aspect of Canadian politics and has been for years (although the system of patronage appointments is pretty bad as well).

She will be running as an independent. If what you say about Flin Flon is true, that is certainly good news for the NDP. A person must have personal popularity if they are to win as an independent. But that goes without saying. I tend to think most New Democrats have a lot of personal popularity. Yvon Godin and Ed Broadbent especially.

As for your comments on the 905 region, I think we will have to wait and see if they go back to blue again. I think it will be difficult. You know, it wasn't too long ago that the tories won seats inside Toronto. That is unlikely to happen again any time soon. This is just manifesting itself in Toronto's suburbs methinks.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She will be running as an independent. If what you say about Flin Flon is true, that is certainly good news for the NDP.

I'll have to check, but I'm fairly sure I'm right about that... she nearly lost to a terrible Liberal candidate last election (well known, yes... but with a lot of baggage), btw.

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Not sure about most... but most of the ones that last more than one term do.

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Perhaps; I think it'll depend on the demographics. Places like Markham or Vaughan are probably Liberal for a looooong time now. Not sure about some of the other areas.
As for Toronto... maybe one of the Etobicoke seats?

[Hatman 🍁]

She will be running as an independent. If what you say about Flin Flon is true, that is certainly good news for the NDP.

I'll have to check, but I'm fairly sure I'm right about that... she nearly lost to a terrible Liberal candidate last election (well known, yes... but with a lot of baggage), btw.

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Not sure about most... but most of the ones that last more than one term do.

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Perhaps; I think it'll depend on the demographics. Places like Markham or Vaughan are probably Liberal for a looooong time now. Not sure about some of the other areas.
As for Toronto... maybe one of the Etobicoke seats?

Etobicoke? Heaven's no, the only chance the tories have in Toronto is Don Mills West, I think- one of the richest if not the richest ridings in Canada. I don't know about Etobicoke Centre, but I know the north is the infamous Rexdale neighbourhood, and the south is deffinitely more left leaning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Etobicoke? Heaven's no, the only chance the tories have in Toronto is Don Mills West, I think- one of the richest if not the richest ridings in Canada. I don't know about Etobicoke Centre, but I know the north is the infamous Rexdale neighbourhood, and the south is deffinitely more left leaning.

So local politics doesn't follow national politics in Toronto much either? 'Cos I know that Etobicoke votes for conservative types in city council elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

Etobicoke? Heaven's no, the only chance the tories have in Toronto is Don Mills West, I think- one of the richest if not the richest ridings in Canada. I don't know about Etobicoke Centre, but I know the north is the infamous Rexdale neighbourhood, and the south is deffinitely more left leaning.

So local politics doesn't follow national politics in Toronto much either? 'Cos I know that Etobicoke votes for conservative types in city council elections.

Actually, having looked into it- Etobicoke was swept by the tories in 1999. Etobicoke Centre (the one I didn't know about) was their strongest riding. Same held true in 2003. (Talking the provincial election here).

I'd also like to bring  up Scarborough, the wasteland of Liberals that it is, has a tendency of electing right winged Liberals. Just about all of the Scarborough MP's voted against Same-sex marriage. This may also be due to the Chinese population, which gave Agincourt the nickname "Asiancourt".

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't know how much this helps, but I am willing to break down the Churchill riding 2004 results by community.

Liberal:
Lac Brochet, Brochet, Pukatawagan, Leaf Rapids, Fox Lake, Shamattawa, Oxford House, Clearwater Lake, Opaskwayak, Moose Lake, Norway House, Waasagomach, Garden Hill, Red Sucker Lake, Island Lake, Poplar River, Barens River, Little Grand Rapids, Little Black River, Fort Alexander

NDP:
Tadoule Lake, Churchill, South Indian Lake, Lynn Lake, Nelson House, Wabowden, Thompson, Thicket Portage, Pikwitonei, York Landing, Split Lake, Ilford, Gillam, Gods Lake Narrows, Cross Lake, Sherridon, Cranberry Portage, Snow Lake, Flin Flon, Wanless, Cormorant, Umpherville, The Pas, Youngs Point, Easterville, Grand Rapids, Pauingassi First Nation, Bloodvein, Hollow Water, Manigotagan

Tie (Liberal & NDP):
Gods River

Conservative:
Paint Lake, Pasquia Settlement, Ralls Island, Bissett

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't know how much this helps, but I am willing to break down the Churchill riding 2004 results by community.

Liberal:
Lac Brochet, Brochet, Pukatawagan, Leaf Rapids, Fox Lake, Shamattawa, Oxford House, Clearwater Lake, Opaskwayak, Moose Lake, Norway House, Waasagomach, Garden Hill, Red Sucker Lake, Island Lake, Poplar River, Barens River, Little Grand Rapids, Little Black River, Fort Alexander

NDP:
Tadoule Lake, Churchill, South Indian Lake, Lynn Lake, Nelson House, Wabowden, Thompson, Thicket Portage, Pikwitonei, York Landing, Split Lake, Ilford, Gillam, Gods Lake Narrows, Cross Lake, Sherridon, Cranberry Portage, Snow Lake, Flin Flon, Wanless, Cormorant, Umpherville, The Pas, Youngs Point, Easterville, Grand Rapids, Pauingassi First Nation, Bloodvein, Hollow Water, Manigotagan

Tie (Liberal & NDP):
Gods River

Conservative:
Paint Lake, Pasquia Settlement, Ralls Island, Bissett

By the looks of that Desjarlais won in the towns, but generally did pretty badly in the rest of the riding... now that's probably good news for the NDP candidate but you can never really tell with these northern ridings. Two things that would make it hard for the NDP to win it back would be if Desjarlais turned it into a referendum on gay marriage (probably her only chance of winning, so she'll probably try that) or if "the man that killed Meech Lake" runs again...

===
As a question, why are Canadian parties so intolerant of MP's that dissent from the party line? Only comparable thing over here I can think of right now is all those Right Labour M.P's being deselected in the Bennite surge in the early '80's.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't know how much this helps, but I am willing to break down the Churchill riding 2004 results by community.

Liberal:
Lac Brochet, Brochet, Pukatawagan, Leaf Rapids, Fox Lake, Shamattawa, Oxford House, Clearwater Lake, Opaskwayak, Moose Lake, Norway House, Waasagomach, Garden Hill, Red Sucker Lake, Island Lake, Poplar River, Barens River, Little Grand Rapids, Little Black River, Fort Alexander

NDP:
Tadoule Lake, Churchill, South Indian Lake, Lynn Lake, Nelson House, Wabowden, Thompson, Thicket Portage, Pikwitonei, York Landing, Split Lake, Ilford, Gillam, Gods Lake Narrows, Cross Lake, Sherridon, Cranberry Portage, Snow Lake, Flin Flon, Wanless, Cormorant, Umpherville, The Pas, Youngs Point, Easterville, Grand Rapids, Pauingassi First Nation, Bloodvein, Hollow Water, Manigotagan

Tie (Liberal & NDP):
Gods River

Conservative:
Paint Lake, Pasquia Settlement, Ralls Island, Bissett

By the looks of that Desjarlais won in the towns, but generally did pretty badly in the rest of the riding... now that's probably good news for the NDP candidate but you can never really tell with these northern ridings. Two things that would make it hard for the NDP to win it back would be if Desjarlais turned it into a referendum on gay marriage (probably her only chance of winning, so she'll probably try that) or if "the man that killed Meech Lake" runs again...

I noticed how Indian reserves were quite strange. Many voted overwhelmingly Liberal (like 90% which is common in many indian reserves) while the NDP won some Indian reserves too. It must be where she campaigned I guess. However, I didnt look up these towns to see if they were reserves or not, I just looked at the names, and made assumptions.

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I thought it was the same as in Britain? All I can say is tradition, which is well- I would have figured to be your fault

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I noticed how Indian reserves were quite strange. Many voted overwhelmingly Liberal (like 90% which is common in many indian reserves) while the NDP won some Indian reserves too. It must be where she campaigned I guess. However, I didnt look up these towns to see if they were reserves or not, I just looked at the names, and made assumptions.

The 90% Liberal ones were presumably the ones in Ron Evans's pocket; I'd guess the NDP ones were straight-ticket places. Out of interest, do you have the same sort of breakdown for Churchill River, SK?

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Not really; the Whips scream at them a lot, but leaderships generally stay well clear of deselecting wayward members (even ones, like Corbyn, which they could probably pull off without too many tears)... it's just too risky.

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Does it have anything to do with the pretty rough nature of early Canadian politics?

[Siege40]

There's a brand new Environics poll out, I couldn't find it though.

Siege

[Hatman 🍁]

I noticed how Indian reserves were quite strange. Many voted overwhelmingly Liberal (like 90% which is common in many indian reserves) while the NDP won some Indian reserves too. It must be where she campaigned I guess. However, I didnt look up these towns to see if they were reserves or not, I just looked at the names, and made assumptions.

The 90% Liberal ones were presumably the ones in Ron Evans's pocket; I'd guess the NDP ones were straight-ticket places. Out of interest, do you have the same sort of breakdown for Churchill River, SK?

Sure, coming right up

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I have no idea off hand, I am sure it could be looked up though. Someone must have an opinion on it

[Hatman 🍁]

Churchill River:

NDP:
Wollaston Lake, Missinippe--Grandmother's Bay, Sucker River, Hall Lake, Lac  la Ronge 156, Buffalo Narrows--Clearwater River 229, Buffalo Narrows, Île-à-la-Crosse, Patuanak, Deschambault Lake, Creighton, Weyakwin

NDP/Independent tie: Kinoosao

Independent:
Camsell Portage, Uranium City, Descharme Lake, Beauval, Cole Bay, Sandy Bay

Liberal:
Fond-du-Lac, Stony Rapids, Black Lake, Tumor Lake, Laloche, Laloche Reserve--Clearwater River, Garson Lake, Southend, Brabant Lake, Stanley Mission, Air Ronge--Big Stone, Dillon, Canoe Narrows, Pinehouse, Pelican Narrows, Sturgeon Landing, Mudie Lake, Loon Lake, Waterhen, Green Lake, Ranger, Ahtahkakoop 104, Mistawasis 103, Big River 118, Montreal Lake 106--Timber Bay, Montreal Lake, Sturgeon Lake, Little Red River 106, Cumberland House, Cumberland 20, Red Earth, Shoal Lake-Ruby Lake

Conservative: (winners)
La Ronge, Air Ronge, Denaire Beach, Pierceland, Beacon Hill, Goodsoil, Little Fishing Lake, Makwa Lake, Barthel, Makwa, Dorintosh--Greig Lake, Doré Lake, Rapid View, Four Corners, Flying Dust First Nation, Meadow Lake 105A, Meadow Lake, Cabana, Neeb, Chitek Lake, Leoville, Spiritwood, Shell Lake, Big River, Victoire, Debden, Canwood, Sturgeon Valley, Waskesiu Lake, Emma Lake, Christopher Lake, Little Bear Lake, Candle Lake, Choiceland, Shipman, Smeaton, Garrick, Love, White Fox,

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New poll:

Con 31%, Lib 28%, NDP 20%, Grn 7%

I'll see if I can find some details

[Siege40]

New poll:

Con 31%, Lib 28%, NDP 20%, Grn 7%

I'll see if I can find some details

Let's instantly assume that the 7% Green is a mistake. It will go to either the NDP or the Liberals, or both.

Siege

[Hatman 🍁]

New poll:

Con 31%, Lib 28%, NDP 20%, Grn 7%

I'll see if I can find some details

Let's instantly assume that the 7% Green is a mistake. It will go to either the NDP or the Liberals, or both.

Siege

Strategic Counsel (who did the poll) has consistently given the Greens 7%.

By the way, I get to do some polling Monday and Wednesday, as I work for Ekos Research