Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The NDP really should be gaining ground in Ontario from the Liberals, not losing ground as a whole. Lunatic strategic voting.

Siege

The good news is the slow and seemingly longterm rise in the Prairies; Saskatchewan could do anything this election (and yes, that exact statement about Sask could have been said at every Federal election since 1993...) and if the Dippers can poll what they're polling in the polls now come election, they could pick up a decent haul of seats there.
Or they could f*** up like last time...

[Siege40]

The NDP really should be gaining ground in Ontario from the Liberals, not losing ground as a whole. Lunatic strategic voting.

Siege

The good news is the slow and seemingly longterm rise in the Prairies; Saskatchewan could do anything this election (and yes, that exact statement about Sask could have been said at every Federal election since 1993...) and if the Dippers can poll what they're polling in the polls now come election, they could pick up a decent haul of seats there.
Or they could f*** up like last time...

Think the Libs will gain seats in the Winter 05-06 election?

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Think the Libs will gain seats in the Winter 05-06 election?

I've really no idea... I think they could do in BC but I don't know about everywhere else.
Things are seriously confusing...

[Siege40]

Think the Libs will gain seats in the Winter 05-06 election?

I've really no idea... I think they could do in BC but I don't know about everywhere else.
Things are seriously confusing...

Try living here...

Siege

[minionofmidas]

Alberta is disappointing.

[WMS]

Alberta is disappointing.

Every country has to put their conservatives somewhere.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah but...compare to this poll...

Ipsos Reid:

National: LPC 34 (+7), CPC 28 (-3), NDP 17 (-2)

Some very odd regional results. Not sure if it marks a big change, or if it's a load of statistical blips:

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What's so odd about that (other than tories down in Quebec)?

[WMS]

Yeah but...compare to this poll...

Ipsos Reid:

National: LPC 34 (+7), CPC 28 (-3), NDP 17 (-2)

Some very odd regional results. Not sure if it marks a big change, or if it's a load of statistical blips:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What's so odd about that (other than tories down in Quebec)?

Ah, I see. Ouch!

[Max Power]

Alberta is disappointing.

Every country has to put their conservatives somewhere.

[Hatman 🍁]

[Siege40]

I saw clips of Cadman's funeral on the news the other day, he was a pretty good guy, it's a shame he passed away.

Siege

[Max Power]

HahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahahaHahahaha
Has Harper dropped the ball?

[Siege40]

I haven't seen any polls lately, do we have any information on any emerging general trends, or is everything still holding steady?

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No new polls from any reputable firm recently. Will update when one is finally published... I think Environics might have one out soon

[Siege40]

How are we suppose to put lawn signs out in February?

Siege

[Hatman 🍁]

There was a poll earlier this month that had this info

Liberals   38%         Conservatives 27%     NDP    15%

http://www.jord.ca is a good website for % to seat data on polls

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, but that was by Pollara

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, but that was by Pollara

What's wrong with Pollara? Those seem like perfectly reasonable poll numbers.

[Siege40]

Perhaps since specifics are lacking we should talk in generalities. How about... why do you think the NDP preform relatively poorly nationally while they enjoy success at the provincial level?

Siege

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'll have a go at that when I've had some sleeeeeep...

[Siege40]

I'll have a go at that when I've had some sleeeeeep...

lol. Fair enough.

One answer is the differences between provincial and the federal parties. It may be more difficult to make the switch.

Siege

[Dave from Michigan]

Canada hasn't had  a conservative prime minister since 1993 right? doesn't look like the next election will elect one either.  Are the conservatives to conservative, I though there was some big scandal with the liberals (maybe it was made out to be bigger than it actually was), but if they can't come close with the opposition in a scandal it looks like they could be in the minority for a while longer.  Of course I really don't know much about canadian politics.

[Max Power]

The conservatives are moderate to conservative, but mostly center-left by U.S. Standards. And the Liberal's scandal is called Adscam, and yes, it's large.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canadians are friggin scared of Conservatives

Anyways, to answer the NDP question.

A lot of it has to do with the size of ridings. The federal ridings can be too big for an NDPer to win, when they may be concentrated to a few neighbourhoods or communties. Another reason is, the variance of NDPers nation wide. Saskatchewan dippers may not like the Jack Layton city slicker, and city folks may not like someone from Saskatchewan. All the provincial NDP parties are affiliated with the federal party, so there's not much difference there.

[2952-0-0]

The problem with Canada is that it is a dominant party state. The Liberals always win except if there is a BIG scandal, when everyone votes Conservative to demand a change. Just look at their slogan: "Demand better. Vote Conservative..."